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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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Obviously weather enthusiasts tend to show up more when interesting weather is modeled....is that an indictment? He was in the same camp I was, which was above normal temps and near normal snowfall....I would call that bombastic. That said, our respective forecasts have not panned out.
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Winter '23-'24 Will Be A Lesson In Relativity
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
Much Milder Than Anticipated February Likely Signals End of Winter 2024 Western Pacific Plays Key Role in Very Warm February Here is the February 2024 forecast H5 composite: Which was reasonably well supported by guidance at the close of the month. But one key difference that is noted between the forecast charts above and what actually verified are the very low heights in the general vicinity of the Bering Sea. This is indicative of a very pronounced positive phase of the West Pacific Oscillation, which is a cousin of the East Pacific Oscillation that is frequently referenced here on Eastern Mass Weather. This is likely the primary reason why the the MJO spent much less time in phase 8 than forecast, which resulted in a much warmer northeastern CONUS than expected and significantly less high latitude blocking. Note the similarity between the +WPO loading map above with not only the previously posted February 2024 H5 chart, but also the pattern favored during phase 3 of the MJO during a warm ENSO month of February. This makes sense since the MJO is emerging in phase 3 after a very truncated passage through phase 8. Forecasts from Latter January were for the MJO to Spend Upwards of One Week in Phase 8 This is the proverbial "smoking gun" for the failed February forecasts and the reason why the forecast for normal to -2F February departures across the region: Ended up more in the vicinity of +3 to +5F range. The pattern did in fact turn cold with an opportunity for a major winter storm as advertised during the mid month flirtation with MJO phase 8, however, it only lasted one week due to the rapid translation of the MJO into the neutral circle. And once again the storm potential went unrealized. This is reflected by the drier than average monthly precipitation departure. This was not at all inconsistent with the precipitation anomaly forecast composite. 1991-2020: However, the very warm temperatures departures combined with the relative dearth of precipitation illustrated above to ensure much below average snowfall across most of the region. While the colder interlude of mid February was much shorter in duration and less remarkable than forecast, the warmer transition marked by a precipitous decline in the PNA near month's end in accordance with the emergence of the MJO into the Maritime continent appears right on schedule. Mild Month of March Spells an Early End to Winter March 2024 Outlook March Analogs: 1966,1973(X2),1977,1983,1987, 2007, 2010(X2), 2016 Here is the forecast H5 composite for the month of March: Versus Current Guidance: Monthly temperature departures should range from +2 to +4 across New England and the mid Atlantic. And this also has some support from the CFS guidance: Precipitation is expected to be near to slightly above normal across New England and near normal to slightly below average precipitation cross the mid Atlantic. The forecast philosophy is that the MJO should spend the vast majority of the month passing through the Maritime continent, with mild temperatures and significant snows confined to mostly northern New England. The first major test for this postulation should come during the second week of the month. Very Mild & Tranquil Start to March Before Storminess Week Two The first week of March is highly likely to be mild and quiet, as very low heights build into the west courtesy of a deep RNA, which will trigger the development of a strong ridge over the northeast CONUS. However, the second week offers major storm potential with cross-ensemble cluster support centered on Saturday-Sunday March 9th to 10th. Since the ridging that will encompass the northeast during the first week of the month is expected to translate northward into the higher latitudes, not unlike the January progression, guidance currently indicates some winter storm risk for the region. However, climatology (nearing mid March) coupled with the progression of the MJO into the Maritime continent (phase 4 or 5) dictates that the very coldest outcome would likely yield significant impacts relegated to the same regions that received heavy snows during the January 7th event (interior north and west of Boston). However, the far more likely outcome given the anticipated progression for the MJO is that this particular event will be focused further inland, higher in elevation and to the north, closer to the cold air source. -
It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
40/70 Benchmark replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
Woof: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/02/much-milder-than-anticipated-february.html -
https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/02/much-milder-than-anticipated-february.html
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Ensembles looks pretty good for that system, but with the MJO in decent amplitude at phase 4-5, I do not buy it at this time.
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Even the CFS has checked out on this season, at this point.
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Any idea why I can't access the CFS for March on Tropical tidbits right now?
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As I am sure both of you understand, asserting that a particular season is a good analog does not imply that it will be an exact replica in any, never mind every facet. I stand by my claim that that season is a very viable analog, especially for March.
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El Nino 2023-2024
40/70 Benchmark replied to George001's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Do you have one for the monthly values? -
El Nino 2023-2024
40/70 Benchmark replied to George001's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Not at all...I doubled up on 1973 for March in my Outlook from November. March Analogs: 1966,1973(X2),1977,1983,1987, 2007, 2010(X2), 2016 -
El Nino 2023-2024
40/70 Benchmark replied to George001's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Anyone have a good link for WPO data? This date on this site doesn't seem to be avilable right now... https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/wp.shtml -
I lost my last patch of snowpack last night....should lose the last of the bankings on the driveway today.
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Hopefully they kick that can to December-
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@CoastalWx@ORH_wxmanWhich site do you use for past H5 charts?
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That is correct to a degree, but in a general sense.....Maritime forcing 100 years ago would have sucked. That is all I mean. Perhaps that forcing regime wouldn't have been so prevalent then due to a less pronounced warm pool, but if it were our winters would suck. One thing if for certain....Maritime forcing existed then..basically all I am saying. But as far as precisely how the hemisphere would have evolved....right; no way of knowing.
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Yea, the blocking has showed up as advertised this year, though admittedly this last stretch was more muted than originally expected. But the issue plaguing this season is that the cold has loaded on the other side of the globe...and whenever it did make it over here, its residence was brief because there was always a Pacific jet extension ready to flex. These are the issues I need to get a better grasp of. I feel like the jet extensions maybe tied to the warm pool off of Japan, but I am at a loss for what determines which side of the globe that the cold loads...perhaps its related to the jet extension issue?
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My honest opinion with no sarcasm intended is that the past several years would have sucked 100 years ago, but the nights have been significatnly warmer than they would have been and the very warmest days are even warmer. I am sure there have also been some marginal events that have been more tedious than they would have a century ago, but I honestly don't believe this would have been a fruitful period for SNE snow enthusiasts at any point in our history. West Pacific forcing has always sucked for this area in that regard since the dawn of time and it always will...there have been prolonged stretchs like this spanning several years in the past....but sure, this "warmest season ever" every other year is definitely CC aided, and mostly while we sleep. It can be argued that the west PAC warm pool that is predisposing us to said Maritime forcing is at least partially attributable to CC and it probably is to a degree, but I have a hard time accepting the fact that mother nature will not find a means to have that phenomenon self-destuct at some point.
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Yea, sell the shit out of winter this month. We sping
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It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
40/70 Benchmark replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
I'm over it....the way I look at it is stretches of winters like this are akin to paying taxes....necessary evil. -
It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
40/70 Benchmark replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
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2024-2025 La Nina
40/70 Benchmark replied to George001's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
No, Boston did fine...I just got screwed. -
2024-2025 La Nina
40/70 Benchmark replied to George001's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
2017-2018 was my last good winter....I was still over 10" below average snowfall in 2020-2021. -
Which site do you guys prefer for H5 charts from past dates?