40/70 Benchmark

Seems a bit inconsistent to post about how strong the cold ENSO signal is in the north Pacific, then then focus on the ONI and insist that its weak. If we saw these competing MC forces result in the very mild "El Nina" winter for the NE last year, then why wouldn't this La Nina act stronger?? I think much of the NE would also take a 2021-2022 outcome at this point. I do agree skepticism is warranted regarding December. I don't even recall December 2020 being that great where I am. December 2019 had a great event....

Completely agree.

I figured we would see that strong MJO pulse this month. I've been implying that in our exchanges. La Nina itself is meager, but the baseline is not.

NE wind often will often even kill me that early...need it like NNE.

Eh...I have learned my lesson on that. In order to adjust too much colder, I'd need to see the whites of the weenie after having my ass handed to me by Bluewave's pee pee pool two years running.

Which is probably enough to constitute a dumpser fire in the lower terrain of the mid atlantic during December as it relates to snowfall.

In the mean, yes.

I defintely should have been more measured with this statement. I can see how it could have a colder stetch, but we would need some breaks. Anway, its not like I was referring to an early east coast snowstorm or anything...don't want to be misleading.

Looks like it could try to sneak into the better phases at a low amplitude in November, but it would probaly need to be stronger to not get washed out by the baseline warm pool.

The month is going to be warm in the mean....no question. Just saying there could be a colder stretch in there if the MJO cooperates before it warms up again.

I think November will have a really nice stretch.

A lot of the coop data is dreadful.

I would be interested in seeing stats RE the correlations, but intuitively speaking, our warm direction is usually form the SW and its difficult to remain exceedingly dry for very long with a predominate flow from that direction considering the broiling GOM.

JAS 2022 -1.00 JAS 2024 -0.64 Decent difference in tri monthly RONI....however, I agree on the moderate peak.

I agree. All I meant was I won't even look at this unless it develops and I am reasonably confident of a US threat.....so I guess you see me blog on it, its bad news for the US.

I would favor the GFS, potential track nothstanding...but I am balls deep in winter at this point.

Eh....personally, I defenitely would rather not have at there in November because that is late enough where sometimes it sticks....but doesn't have to.

Doesn't bother me...I have seen more "if only this were winter" patterns in October end up as "this winter blows" seasons.

I wouldn't be suprised to a nasty hybrid deal in a week or two....October 2021 has that big storm here while I was overseas.

I would look for another 1995-1996, 2002-2003, 2009-2010 type of season around the turn of the decade.

When @Jebmanhas a pessimistic rant, its time to find a new hobby.

His screen name tells you all you need to know....walking agenda.

Especially for you....its more of an issue for me being closer to the ocean, but I also have a better shot at alienating my family and risking my marriage to track a unicorn.