40/70 Benchmark

Its like groundhog day....every season is the same, regardless of ENSO, solar, underwear or no underwear....we have a bloodbath off of Japan, a -3.56546 PDO, Raindance assembling an antilog list that includes any respectable east coast snowfall season that ends up being lethally accurate, and Bluewave responding to an alarm over his bedside that alerts of him of any expressed optimism pertaining to east coast winter, so that he can come in and promptly assinate spirits with a reminder about the warm pool and some god awful charts referencing the Pacific over the past 9 seasons. We also have snowman chiming in about some esoteric index from the middle east that supports the continued development of La Nina and is hostile for eastern snow and cold.

Yes, I won't be shoecked if I look like an idiot when someone like Kevin bumps that with the benefit of hindsight in a month or two. Just an impulsive comment triggered by the subjective sentiment that seasons lke 2005 and 1995 had faced a lot less resistance to this point.

Yea, that's fair. All I am saying is it needs to fire up soon to hit 200 ACE.

I don't doubt that. All I am saying is that it needs to fire up quickly on order to get over 200 ACE.

The westerlies are very prominent at this latitude later in the summer and throughout the cold season....any tropical system is going to encounter those and recurve south of us, so in order to be far enough west to still track over the area, it will have crossed over a significant amount of land first....a la Debby. There is a reason that we are directly impacted by a major tropical system so infrequently...its not as it is further south, where you can just hope for a slightly less abrupt turn.

At this range, there are always going to be some "interesting" ensemble members. These systems curving out south of NE are a mirage with respect to perceived proximity/probability of major impact in the absence of a major ULL or trough over the lakes to draw it in.

Well, look it up...its true.

I don't really do any other seasons, but from what Chuck was saying it sounds like October and November maybe mild before a "cool" down in December.

I honestly don't think that was factored in enough....look at the uber active seasons like 1995 and 2005...they were all near solar min. There aren't any extremely high ACE seasns near solar max.

The further west it initially makes it, the sharper that parabolic curve will be underneath SNE. Same guys always chasing their own shadow.

I wasn't following along closely over the weekend, but I saw a retweet from MJO from a met along the lines of "If we get this ULL to stall here and kick the storm this way, then it waits for the next trough and blah, blah, then the threat isn't over for the east coast" and I knew it was over. When you see MJO and ineedsnow trying to bank hurricanes off of the garage to find a pathway into SNE, you need not look...its that time.

Getting to the point where this season is irreconcilibly dissapointing from a volume/ACE perspective. This one is a lost cause.

I think I'm going to hold off on doing the extra tropical Pacific until latter Septmeber or early October. I was going to do it next week, but I want to get a better idea of where the ACE is headed because that may really inform how much poleward Aleutian ridging we get.

I agree with your assessment.....basin-wide La Nina is normally a coin-flip with respect to poleward ridging....some act as east-based, some as Modoki with flat ridges. But I will say that we are increasingly "due" for something....anything to break "right". This would be my seventh consecutrive below average snowfall season....have to go back to 2017-2018 for a solidly above average season or even anything approaching normal.

Oh yea-I would take the over on normal temps here...which is why I said I would take that.

I would take that....my spot would probably do okay. If you run the temp departures for my polar analog composite, it looks a lot like that.

Look at my link. .its in there

Here is my preliminary work on the polar domain, which lines up exceedingly and uncannily well with Chuck's NAO formula currently, which was gratifying given its past success. NOTE: THIS IS NOT A WINTER FORECAST COMPOSITE....it's just for the polar domain, so no need to point out years like 2016, which featured a +PDO....that will not be viewed as an extra tropical Pacific analog. The focus for this is the AO/NAO domain. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/08/preliminary-analysis-of-polar-domain.html

I found some of your old data looking in one of my seasonal outlooks in which I referenced it. Utilizing North Atlantic SSTs During Summer as an NAO Predictor for Cold Season Perhaps one of the most skilled forecasters on a forum replete with talented meteorologists and hobbyists alike, in americanwx.com, "StormchaserChuck", now known as "UniversesBelowNormal", devised a formula over a decade ago that predicts the mean aggregate state of the NAO for the ensuing winter using the SSTs in an area of the north Atlantic. This methodology is strongly endorsed as one of the more accurate predictors available for the mean state of the winter NAO. In fact, had Eastern Mass Weather considered it last season, the outlook would have been much more successful. The following methodology is a wonderful illustration of the delayed feedback between sea and air that represents the very essence of the elaborate system of atmospheric oscillations that is so often referenced. "In 2006 on a site called easternuswx, elaborate research was done with North Atlantic SSTs, showing high lagging predictive value for following Winter's NAO/AO. The correlation factor was higher than 0.4, and there was advantage over decadal cycles. Meaning, it would predict years that reversed the decadal trend. The index was very accurate in predicting the +NAO for the 2006-2007 Winter, and got much attention after a topic called "This will be the warmest Winter on record for the US" (It was the 7th warmest). Since then the index has performed wonderfully after the fact: 2018-19: +NAO signal/+NAO winter....Verified 2017-18: Strong -NAO signal/+NAO Winter....Failure to Verify 2016-17: Strong - NAO signal/ Weak -NAO Winter .. Verified 2015-16: +NAO signal/ +NAO Winter ... Verified 2014-15: Strong - NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... Failure to Verify 2013-14: Strong +NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... Verified 2012-13: slight -NAO signal / strong -NAO Winter ... Verified 2011-2012 neutral NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... Null 2010-2011: Strong -NAO signal/ Strong -NAO Winter ... Verified 2009-2010: Strong -NAO signal / Strong - NAO Winter ... Verified 2008-2009: weak -NAO signal / weak -NAO Winter ... Verified 2007-2008: -NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... Failure to Verify 2006-2007: +NAO signal / weak +NAO Winter ... Verified 2005-2006: strong +NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... Verified

Also on my short list.

Regardless of what the ONI implies, it will not be weak.

Not on my agenda, no

Exactly what I have been getting at....much like mathamatics, its not about the final solution but hot it is arrived at that matters.

Someone needs to mess with this quote...I almost want to do it myself.