40/70 Benchmark

Retire in an absolute sense maybe, they still have utility if one accounts for CC.

I appreciate that because my work has definitely had a cold/snow bias, so I do make an effort to demonstrate that it isn't a conscious initiative or anything. While it is fair to say that I have some work to do in that regard, I am willing to bet that 99% of forecasters out there have been too cold and snowy in the east over the past several years. Even raindance, as exceptional as he has been and clearly the best in my mind, went very snowy in Maine for I think 2020-2021 and they ended up porked.

Great ("here" as in NYC) is your word; not mine. But I do standby my assertion that that could be enough for a decent winter for a much of New England, at least.

Man, PSL not updating those temp and precip composites is killling me. Hopefully that is fixed this month before I go to work on this winter.

Yea, textbook.

You are never going to see +13 magnitude anomalies in seasonal guidance...I think we all understand that. And my my money is on above normal in a lot of the east, but just not so extreme...all I am saying.

I think you are confusing my point. I am not claiming that the WPO is the silver bullet that will save winter in the east, but it is one factor. I have told you before that I do not expect the same magnitude of amplification with the trough out west as 2022, either...which probably ties into the WPO to an extent. If you want to bet on a reoccurence of that, then be my guest. 2022 with slighly less amplification out west would have been a good winter for my area...no doubt.

I don't think it will be as bad as 2022 for the east, either, but I do still think it has utility as an analog.

Raindance dropping a hot one on the 2022 analog. "You'll see a lot of people claiming 2022 as an analog for the winter. But the models continue to show a very warm pattern for the Southwest, with cold dumping into the Plains. In 2022-23, cold alternated between dumping into the West & Plains. That's not supported on the models."

That is huge -WPO.

The point that it hasn't been relegated to October. Its been omnipresent.

La Nina in and of itself isn't a big issue given in its meager intensity, but the larger issue is that persistent background state.

Well, when its been the most prominent feature for half of a decade, I think its a more viable indicator than the average bear.

Current guidance:

Here is 2023

Look at the disparity between the relatively high amplitude those years and 2022, which went into the shitter.

October 2021

October 2020

CFS seems to offer up some blocking working in conjunction with a PNA pattern, so perhaps some early cool shots in the offing. Obviously this doesn't really mean much in terms of winter and if anything, it could be a subtle negative since there is a modest negative correlation with this month and the cold season. All of that said, October is the first month that usually does offer some viable indicators that have some winter utility. The MJO is one factor I will be keeping close tabs this month, as @bluewavehas made some pretty astute obs concerning the connection between amplified maritime forcing (phases 4-6) during the month of October and deviation or disconnect from this hostile paradigm during the ensuing cold season (2020-2021, 2021-2022). The recent seasons that had a lower amplitude during this month ended up having a higher amplitude during the winter, which obviously kept the east milder with a greater dearth of a more wintry interlude.

2007 is a good analog save for the solar, as you said....but you can probably find faults with most of the ideal solar analogs, as well. I expect the RONI to end up a bit weaker than 2007.

I think it depends on locale....there was a good bit of bad luck for my area, but it was more pattern further south.

2022 is an outstanding analog....no analog will be perfect, so dismiss it at your own peril.

All guidance was too far west with landfall, but globals were better. Hurricane models were furthest west.

Nearly Flawless Forecast for Historic Hurricane Helene Due to Lessons Learned from Michael Intensity Forecast Slightly Underestimated Very Strong Track Forecast The track forecast for historic Hurricane Helene was absolutely immaculate from First Call issued on Tuesday and was unchanged with the issuance of Final Call on Thursday. The forecast rationale that all of the guidance, including the National Hurricane Center were underestimating how quickly a hurricane as powerful and vertically stacked as Helene would begin to feel the influence of the incoming trough and veer somewhat to the east. The intensity forecast, while accurate overall, was not flawless. Landfall Intensity Underestimated The evolution of the intensity forecast was exceptionally accurate, as First Call explicitly articulated that the system would not undergo any rapid intensification until after dawn on Thursday and instead only intensify gradually through Wednesday night, which its precisely what took place. The system was somewhat disrupted when it skirted the northeastern most tip of the Yucatan, as anticipated and then began to rapidly intensify after dawn on Thursday. Final Call "In fact, poleward ventilation of Helene may be enhanced as a result of the approaching trough's initial interaction with the system in addition to what is obviously likely to be a very moist airmass in the mid levels of the atmosphere". This unique type on interaction with the trough was correctly identified as the type that allows for significant intensification right to the coast. This is very analogous to the the type of scenario that was misdiagnosed by Eastern Mass Weather with respect to Hurricane Michael in October of 2018. Although the forecast was certainly superior to the one with respect to Michael, which called for significant weakening, Helene even intensified slightly more aggressively than anticipated Thursday into Thursday evening. This was on display via numerous very vidid lightening strikes within the eyewall throughout the night on final approach to the coast. It ultimately made landfall with 140 mph maximum sustained winds instead of the forecast for 125 mph at 11:10pm EDT instead of the forecast 12:00am EDT. FINAL GRADE: A