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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I am of the opinion that this season will behave in a manner that is consistent with La Nina, however, La Nina will not be the primary driver...if that makes sense.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    It has up here...perhaps not down there...but that is how it goes. Everything went right last decade, so it evens out.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right...until the pattern stops persisting. Nobody has it all figured out.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    The trough dug so far to the south that it remained progressive and occluded fast.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    The issue with the bomb cyclone is that it occluded so far to the south...not that it was too far east.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I would say from about the latitude of Providence, RI and points southward. Lot easier to BS your way to a respectable season once you get into N RI/CT and especially the MA pike.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree...and I will take that. I would rather have a few lean years, as much as I bitch, when there is more time to focus on work and family, then be pinned to the blog for a string of 3"ers. I go all in on those storms so save it for the biggies.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree completely. However, I thinkl the difficulty getting to within 25% of average is more applicable the further south one is.....that is not difficult in the north.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, we are all human.....I feel like he could untlimately be exposed for becoming a bit too reliant upon persistence forecasting, which is esstneitally what happened to me at the turn of the decade. Nobody is immune to it.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, it has impacted the PDO page.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    We can agree to diasgree on the regression part. Yes, volatility has been increased, but when you view snowfall through a decadal lens, its apprent that this decade is regression from last decade....volatility is multi-decadal and not relgated to the seasonal level.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I didn't really pay much attention to him back then, so I will take your word for it. I have recognized his worhtwhile contributions over the past couple of seasons, though because he has been on of the few that has had a firm grasp.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Theoretically speaking, Chris' connection to CC makes sense...but I just need to see it continue for another 7-8 years or so before more strongly considering it. The permanent alteration of the pattern...not the warming part. We know it is warming....no debate there.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    We have talked about this before, but you know my stance for now....its regression on the heels of the snowiest decade in history. If it remains like this into next decade, then I will reconsider that position. If you recall, last decade the world was ending out west due to the multiyear drought...
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I know...no offense intended whatsoever. Just a tension-breaker.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Regardless of that the weather is doing, its fruitless to post in here during the fall because anything and everything will be tied to warmth during the winter somehow. I'm sure even a blizzard in January will elicit a slew a "roll forward" posts to MC forcing in February, but at least then you can enjoy the snow while enduring it.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Of course, we finally may get a season in which raindance is a voice of dissent amidst a chorus of doom and gloom for the east and he'll dissapear faster than a day 16 snow threat.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    One of these days Chris will make a post that doesn't make me want to shotgun a gallon of antifreeze.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, raindance can be very prickily, but hopefully he stays because he is a great forecaster. I would def. suggest giving him a follow on X whether he leaves of stays.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes. This is what I have been arguing...that pattern hasn't been great, but we have also had bad luck in that the timing has consistently been poor.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think most of us are just breaking your acorns when we mock you about that. ..pretty tough to deny at this stage.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    See and that is what I really couldn't care less about...give me 2017-2018 all day long. I don't care that February being +123* C skewed the winter warm. But this is a more verbose way of saying adjust warmer from analog composites due to CC. We get it. Extreme anomalies are always difficult to forecast at extended leads. Agreed.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    2013 was only slighly above average snowfall where I am....I would take 2017 over 2013, hands down.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think most guidance has been too cold....and its also notable that the pattern looks more favorable, regardles of whether its too cold.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    2017-2018 beat all but two or three of them for me in terms of snowfall...2010-2011 was close, but it certainly beat 2013, 2002 and 2009.
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