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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    You keep saying the March pattern was too late and you are patently incorrect. That huge storm was the first week of the month. That pattern's shortcomings had nothing to do with the calendar.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was 37 last night.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Early November through like Feb 10..yes.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    After tomorrow we shed the Morch sun angle, then 3 more weeks until solar min.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'll do the post mortem tomorrow...I'm pretty disappointed with that forecast.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agreed.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm wating for @bluewaveto snip that author's balls off by illustrating how the NAO has given the SE ridge a lapse dance since 2015.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm guessing this article doesn't have a happy ending for NE winer enthusiasts.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Finally updated temp/precip composites yesterday...just in time for me to pivot to winter after Milton. https://psl.noaa.gov/data/usclimdivs/ Outlook season....
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks to be jogging NNE at the moment.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    What was Katrina? Simply for context...not a comparison.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Eye nearing latitude of Everglades City.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I still think I will be okay here on the NH border.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Just going to watch from here on out...I have endured enough weenie shrapnel from insisting this is coming north. It should be pretty apparent now viewing RAD. Hope folks in TB flood zones heeded warnings.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Glad you mentioned that in case anyone interpreted George's ACE update as reason for optimism.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its tricky because the increasing shear may not allow the EWRC to ever complete if the SW side remains open.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Another point is how much the negative influence of the shear is being negated by the enhanced evacuation of air to the NE....just food for thought. This is why intensity forecasts are so multifaceted and complex.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its mitigated a great deal by the fact that its moving in generally the same direction....obviously if Milton were moving west, like most tropical systems, then it would be getting absolutely denuded.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its going to be crucial to see how well the sysem endures the EWRC now that shear has began to impinge on the outflow over the western semicircle...I think this AM is the last real crcuial inflection point for Milton with respect to ultimate landfall locale and intensity....aside from wobbles very late in the game.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Envt. was supposed to get pretty hostile Wed AM IMO. Maybe a break that its picked up right as the EWRC started. I hadn't realized that shear was already impacting it when I commented on the EWRC being bad news a bit earlier.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't see how this makes it to late tomorrow until an EWRC with a 7mi wide eye. North she comes.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Probably start an ERC by dawn.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I said the same thing in my final write up.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would be prepared north of the cone, as well...hint, hint.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, I hope Santa brings me a cat 5 trimmer.
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