40/70 Benchmark

While the hindsight composite could reflect that, it doesn't mean we can't get a good stretch....especially early. Also keep in mind that the dry stretch haas to end at some point.

Not so preliminary thoughts....but looong was from anything definitive. I offer up composites as coalesce my thoughts throughout the fall. Not at all a forecast. This is evolving quickly IMO. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/09/structural-changes-observed-in.html

Some thoughts on my end....not too dissimilar from the prevailing thoughts expressed here. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/09/structural-changes-observed-in.html

I agree about this becoming a more modoki event...just blogging about that now, actually. Of course, a modoki la nina is the inverse Hadley cell configuration of el nino modoki....bad news bears for the east. Great for the west...specially NW.

I'm excited for this season's outlook. My process will be a little bit different this season, as I am going to supply links to background information throughout the finished product, so that folks can actually read the damn thing. The previous format was mind numbing, and I appreciate that many of you pointed that out. @Ginx snewx had a great suggestion to link the basic background information, which I am implementing in a series of addendums detailing major atmospheric drivers. Addendum one is ENSO. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/09/winter-outlook-2020-2021-addendum-1.html I am really starting to hone in my thoughts early this season and will have more season specific information out tonight.

I think region 1.2 warming is another bad sign for the east should that continue.

Been that way more often than not over the course of the past decade.

Right.....most disparate with snowfall, though....2005 wasn't that cold, but near normal.

Last winter was nothing like 2004-2005 for the northeast in terms of snowfall.

Agree. This weak la nina doesn't look as good for the ne as many have, though. Agree with a lot of what has been said in here, unfortunately.

I'm still on the weak train for now.

Oh yea......boring period for sure.

My main issues with 2007-2008 is the la nina intensity and QBO, which I have seen you discuss. Not a terrible analog, though.

Look like avg precip north of the pike, if we want to split hairs at several months lead. :LOL:

Megalopolis system, December 1981 event, Blizz of April '82 and the March 30 1984 event stand out in my mind....

That is bad news...you always want the cool anomalies in the eastern regions, regardless of ENSO.

I think you mean January 1987....

I don't disagree with this.

Agree.

That has zero to do with my actual outlook. Its simply a base ENSO composite.

Here is my insanely preliminary weak la nina composite....only sorted by ENSO, at this point.

My next blog will start getting more into the particulars of the weak la nina composite years. I am very confident we weak nina....highly doubt cold-neutral.

I never realized how insanely close it was for me in Wilmington...I wasn't as scrupulous back then as I am today. It started snowing heavy in MBY, and I was like.....okay, we good. Little did I know that it was relatively inconsequential snow in like Lawrence/N Andover...

Thank god that I wasn't at my current spot near the NH border in Methuen, then....I would have swan dived into the Merrimack. I remember laughing at the 5" of pixie dust that was reported in Methuen, while staring out the window in Wilmington at my 18-20" of fluff.