40/70 Benchmark

Yea, looks strong.

Man, good to see that consistency...Euro is locking in, synoptically speaking.

Yea, that I am not sure of....probably not many, so it would sense to just distinguish by whether there was a prominent s stream player.

Seems to be more energy hanging back near CC this wknd..not sure I like that.

Yea, fair enough. Like I said, I wasn't sure whether we were referencing storms that were literally ALL n Stream, or just mainly. No debate it was 90%+ N stream....

I missed the Megalopolis storm of '83...that makes 6. 1,3 6, 8, 11 and 15. I don't see this pulling a Jan 2016....maybe Dec 2009.

Jesus...a third of those are orgasmic for my area. Counting PD II as such, even though I got meso-porked.

Well, okay...I'm not saying it was a major contributor...all I am saying is that technically speaking, the notion that the blizzard of 1978 was 100% born of the N stream is a misperception. I am not sure what the specific criteria is for distinguishing between those two types of miller Bs.

Has March 2001....

http://archive.boston.com/news/weather/articles/2008/02/08/national_weather_services_history_of_the_blizzard_of_1978/#:~:text=THIS STORM IS KNOWN AS,OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT WOULD BECOME THE BLIZZARD OF 78 FORMED FROM A DIVING ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. ANOTHER WEAK LOW DEVELOPED OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THESE SYSTEMS JOINED FORCES OFF THE VIRGINIA CAPES ON THE NIGHT OF MONDAY FEBRUARY 5 TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY...AS AN AREA OF HEAVY SNOW MARCHED ITS WAY UP THE EAST COAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

I disagree. It was mainly N stream, but there was a meager contribution from the south.

There was a weak wave coming up from the south, too. it moved off of the Carolinas...

Feb '78 was the former...

GEFS def trended a hair east and less impressive, but really noise.

I still see the protracted moderate impact as the higher likelihood.

Well, I feel like my floor is to the east. I'm not getting rain unless something drastically changes, and with the easterly fetch, I'd rather concede the deformation area, then risk a graze. I don't foresee big subby areas in E NE.

I mean, it could very well end up at either edge, but I'm not in bad spot, right now. Slightly more concerned about W tics, which is the problem that I'd rather have. Last thing I want is a graze.

Seems like the goal posts are a se MA special to a tuck job...I'm okay with that.

I was speaking to you, not at you.

To the contrary...if you won that run, then you have my condolences.

Assuming we do get that deep layer E fetch.....I not recall any big scew zones over E NE, with the exception of RI in March 2013. Still not sure what that was all about, but I doubt a recurrence. That is a high-confidence dump over a large area, precip type issues not withstanding.

Def. less impressive than 06z.

I wouldn't worry about shit like that right now.

Reverse in relation to how it compares to previous runs.

That is why I don't usually do PBP...it changes and trends reverse.