Typhoon Tip

We got really lucky down here along rt 2 ... 71 in near full sun and very little wind in zip RH. It's like that utopia feel to the air.

There kind of is though ... maybe this is hard to dispute when all sources the compute the teleconnections have some variation that does not argue this from CPC, That's actually huge signal for warmth over continental mid latitudes. What's puzzling is neither the operational runs, nor their respective ensemble means are being very representative of that warm signal. I was half thinking the CPC needed to 'recalibrate' or something, but other sources are similar. Maybe the numerical field is sort of detecting the non-linear wave function/forcing ... which is inherently always masked by the linear - what we see. In other words, "lurking" ... perhaps in wait of the linear to come toward constructive interference.. Supposition, but you can kind of see that 'trying' to happen if one pays attention to the run to run cinema over time. Which I am crushingly nerdy enough to do LOL

Yup, exactly

So yeah ... GFS seems to have come around to the pivot S idea with the weekend synopsis' .... sparing us inundating cold rains and mist... but, the trade off isn't very balmy either.

Yeah, I saw you mention the EML around the time I posted that Wednesday looked interesting. I think that was 4 ...might have been 3 days ago. You may recall, I was telling you that there was possible warm intrusion into CT and that the helicity in the area look impressive while there was also a jet acceleration running by exit/entrance style N of the warm front. So the pieces were certainly there. The EML in concert with these synoptic advantages and away we go.

We were stuck in the BD air mass all throughout the event...right into the evening, and couldn't be liberated from it until the whole system passed off and gave it no choice but to mix out. When that warned cell came through around 4:30 pm to our S ( Ayer Ma), we had dead still air slate gray sky down pour with massive rain drops but no thunder. Didn't even hear any distant low decible, probably because the dense cool air. That's all we got from anything yesterday. It was all about where the warm front penetrated - along and S of that boundary had a party.

No offense to Ryan but some of us mentioned that Wednesday looked interesting 4 days ago ... Folks are getting used to disregarding some posters. boo hoo LOL it's all good.

'Cept that "back in the day" ... it didn't typically snow in May. Lol It's become a leitmotif since 2000 where these May excursions into a severely regressed/transient cold atmospheres. Whether they succeed in producing snow in air, the can... This was far less common prior to that 2000, though yes ... not unheard of, either.

Possible physical mechanism for the west Pacific warm pool and other consequences found https://phys.org/news/2024-05-north-pacific-due-china-aerosols.html This is important. For example, "break away" ridge nodes, containing climate anomalous warm atmospheric plumes, then meander down stream of these Rosby Wave sources and cause havoc. In a separate study cites the principle cause for the mega heat wave in the Pacific NW in June 2021 to be such a plume that migrated into a position over the Pac NW, stalled and then festered under solar maximum irradiance of that time of year. It also most likely means something for seasonal forecasting; the ENSO correlations have been less stable/coherent to the winter time patterns, for example. It's entirely intuitive that there is some negative interference, slow moving, at very large scaled mass fields ...etc.

Started to hint at brightening up here at this end of Rt 2 in N-NE Mass but with those anvils now capping that'll pretty much close the book on any meaningful sun sparing the day here. Different world in CT/Western MA ... pretty classic SNE butt bangin' day. Tomorrow might actually be decent. I'm wondering if the models are too stingy with blue slots and sky lights given the general synopsis. I could see it being partly sunny mid day. That would also goose the T's a little too. Course, ...that could cause some pancaking.

A historic severe day in SNE is unfolding before our very eyes... Very hard to elevate our region to this high level/criteria of concern... Mesoscale Discussion 0702 – Concerning: SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

cells firing off around the western end of the Pike

fascinating to watch. just in the last 10 minutes, the lower scunge lurched N across N CT. WF may be on the move 79 in HFD ... 60 in BAF...

yeah, that's how New England works there's 2 slices to the atmospere that apparently decouple entirely at times. when they do ... you get sat and obs and conventional metrics not exposing the lowest layer below the 'floor' https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-New_England-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined that field of blasting cu is passing right over the closed circulation like there's nothing there.

Watching the hi res vis loop this hour and comparing that to surface obs through upstate NY, there seems 0 way to prevent the warm front from blasting in. yet, it won't move. ah yes. New England at it's physical finest