Typhoon Tip

Meh another banded/plume's settling thru the area in a couple hours as this image's looping is SSE

88/71 here ..suns stronger as well. Won't verify advisories ... but it's still warm. - actually, it appears they've canceled headlines

Yeah ...ensembles means are not likely to be as deep as operational versions at this range. It's just logic. If you have a pool of members, there's apt to be some that are always less - that weighting skews the mean... duh. So when the operational are that deep, the ensembles look like this, below - which is consistent with their summer +PNA during that time range. Which is still cold for warm enthusiasts unfortunately

12z Euro/GFS both pushing the bounds of credibility with that (apparently) unconstrained trough depth around the 21s/22nd ... The indexes have an unusually amplified +PNA numerically signaled in that time range, so some sort of anomaly is okay but ... egads! doesn't have to -3.5 SD, either. I guess in order to balance the hemisphere for all that French rage the models have to hang their asses over somewhere to make the world fair.. lol

They've got no way to stop that fire storm up there, either. this may be a smoke problem going forward ... clearly wasn't assessed in/for today - not sure how it's done tomorrow. Altho- we may end up with more a NW component which could shunt it maybe NYC ish?

smoke induced double bust ? heat... joke convection ... stumped

I suspect I know what his source/reasoning therefrom is ... or was rather - you never give that information when you repost so we have no idea... But the problem I have with it is that there is a whopper +PNA between the 19th and ~ the 24th... unusually big numerical values for summer. Showing up in the chart layouts ( ens mean of all three majors - ), too SO, assuming that happens.. these longer range heat signal have to survive modeling our way through these nearer term index walls. It makes it less than trust-able what's happening on the other side of those. Having said that... yeah, there's 'bounce back method that's valid. The +PNA is a cool anomaly that isn't really supported well given the background...so if the pattern goes that way, the recoil - for lack of better word - could imagine an equally handsome -PNA expression ... which ^ certainly is

It's actually normal for nocturnally driven MCS to decay after sun rise. Granted, that one did have a weak perturbation in the flow that helped ignite it way up there overnight, but once that happened... part and parcel to the vitality of the S part of the M C S ( mesoscale convective system) is what's known as "radiative cloud top cooling" ...this factor destabilizes the region over the MCS at mid and high levels; a smaller quotient of what is needed for the overall instability/machinery for the embedded convective cycling to keep going. Sun rises; that factor disappears. poof. Anyway not sure what happened last month but just sayn'

Yeah it's fascinating on satellite. Now that the MCS is diurnally in decay and it's anvil is evaporating, it's exposing where the smoke is... You wonder if it will offset CAPE production for your convection later on

First of all LOL. I hear you on the bold. I'd also suggest experimentally cutting out all processed sugar and all process carbs. Go abruptly and strictly keto - not intending to keto diet, per se...it's just that you'll coincidentally end up in that area. A bit long. If you are tl;dr types, "go swipe yourselves" I backed into this accidental solution/panacea for a life-long ... seemingly unresolvable Middle-east conflict resolution that raged in my skull for the last 5,000 years of never finding peace. Yes ... it was so bad, that I must have had these before I was born! Lol. anyway, this may not work for everyone. Understood. I had done enough research over the years to submit a legit master's level dissertation in the physiology of cortical abnormalities science... Half of which resulted in female hormonal imbalances - which believe it or not ... males are not 100% escaped from consideration despite clickety-clackin' balls, just exceptionally rare. Excluding those, diet and stresses are main correlations in the inter-quartile density of the suffering bell-curve males. Within that window - unfortunately ... - there is no one size fits all. However, "high fructose corn syrup" is, believe it not, specifically isolated in the science of triggers in males and females, regardless. There are others there, too. I'm clearly talking about 3 subjects concurrently in that paragraph so I'm sure I've lost the reader. Short version, I was borderline diabetic 2 years ago and it freaked the shit out of me, because my mother ... who sadly was a walking bag of morbidity issues in the last 20 years of life ( so we're lucky we got her to 78 ), died around then in part complications from poorly managed Type-2. I needed a solution, now! Longer version: My thing was that I was doing an experimental carb loading diet, because was attempting to add power lifting to my normal workout routines ... a range of motion that my shape ( more on the lanky side) isn't very natively responsive too. It didn't help my weight lifting. It only fucked up my blood numbers. I was pretty confident that all I had to do was go back to the other life-style and it would correct... I mean I wasn't redic in the numbers. A1c was the metric that made the Dr. immediately flip open his notepad with a lusty gleam in his eyes like a button-nosed moon faced weeble-wobble lording over a parfait. I'm convinced their getting a 'phat' commish' but in theory, that's supposed to be illegal now... Either way, I don't want to rely on the Industrial Medicine Complex... I told him no. I came home crest fallen and spent the afternoon sulking questions of life decisions. Then I came to one. Instead of sulk-raging against the reality of it I'd go the other way. I would OCD the subject and eat like paranoid parsimonious field rabbit nibbling away in puma country - motivated in no part for fearing death from having observed my mother's decline and knowing that gee... I have some genetic lineage there. I guess to be a fair, the extremism of discipline was mostly in the sugars. I researched mono vs disaccharides down to chemical nomenclature. How they occur in nature, like naturally... How the liver breaks them down. Glycogen pathways in normal vs abnormal physiological states. Taste, and how Industry fools you into getting their processed version of these sugars, which include refined grains, into you so that you'll addict and come back... Keen conceptual awareness into the mechanisms that are connecting all these facets. I formulated a diet over two weeks of trial and error that closely avoided vs added crucial stock. Given time, I did allow in small amounts of organic sourced, non-vegetable complex carbs, but only after research and learning had gained confidences. Authentic/organic Rye bread in short supply is okay. But absolutely 0 anything that falls within that former definition - even if suspiciously. No processed/added sugars, nor processed carbs... No white pasta/rices... White's kind of a "dark" word in dietary-related health. This all obviously should (because it does ...) mean no soda ( obviously). No sports drinks. No fruit juices, which are toxic sugar isolation no matter what Tropicana says. Squeezing your own oranges, for example, is very bad for you. All assumptions handed down culturally from prior generations had to be reviewed and hate say... had to be modulated and/or discarded. Really, the average person has not f clue, man. I did these measures for several months, ...I time in which after a life-long dependable 3-on-average migraine days per month, I had .... none. Not one. But didn't immediately realize this. (Btw, I want to also point out. Migraines in the context of this missive refers to headaches of a particularly defined and scientifically studied physiological phenomenon. Many people refer to bad headaches as migraine, but most people in fact are not suffering what the clinical progression of a migraine event. There are two types: Aura, and non-aura. Aura is a part of the prodrome phase. The patient will incur transient blindness, typically in one eye or the other - if it is both, definitely talk to a physician with some urgency, because that could be connected to ischemia/blood loss and stroke. This is also true if one had never experience an aura prior in life, but then suddenly began doing so at mid life. The aura tends to fade over and hour and is replaced with disabling head pain that can involve other physiological nervous responses (nausea ..tingling hands.. weird smelling and sensitivity to light and sound that are otherwise considered normal). Non-Aura migraines may have other prodrome symptoms that do not include visual disruptions, but both types typically end up in this latter list of delicious dreams of eating a bullet to make it stop.) After a couple of follow-ups out through month 9 ...nearing a year, my A1c was had indeed returned well within the safe range. I had switched Dr.s ( different reason) in the interim, but the new Dr walked in and she said, "..so congratulations; most people at mid life that come in here for this reason are not going back," as she flipped a page on her clipboard. I reply was, "... anything to not become death-fearing manacled to the assumption of good-will big Pharma". I think it's a lesson in the virtue of just tracking lifestyle changes and being aware of cause-and-effects... You know? I was fine, carb loading, not fine. How about I just not carb load, before flipping open the prescription notepad, huh. Still, no 'graines. Not one. It had finally occurred to me. I did finally get one. But the key here is that A, it was just 1 after 13 or 14 months - not 36. B, because it was 1, it was easier to isolate a possible cause. I was down a meal and in route to a disc golf round, and my buddy had a couple of protein bars... I ate them... and as that extra-double top-secret saccharine soupy heroin masticated in my mouth and hit my brain... I was more interested in getting it in because on top of that dopamine hit that admittedly ...was fantastic, I was legit over hungry and knee wobbling. About mid way through the 2nd bar, it hit me though. Uh oh. Wait! I read ingredients... it had all these added "sugar syrups"... The next day? BAM.. in fact, I had 3 that week after. Which is also consistent with the H fructose CS literature at PubMed; HFCS man-mad industrial sugar doesn't breakdown in the liver like the other sugars in nature do -those that have gone through the crucible of biological evolution... Particles remain in the blood stream for up to three days or longer in fatty cases. It doesn't matter how many cycles of testing these Industries claim make their pap safe, nothing holds a candle to 750,000 years of trial and error by Nature. So, that's a pretty damning incidence that gives a lot of confidence as to what my triggers always were, and hidden... by a cultural of dietary lies - not to get into that... - handed down through the generations. And I look all these migraine ads on TV and social media and so forth... it's a billion dollar management industry. I just wonder how man of these sufferers can walk away from management into a realm of just not having to really even think about them, simply by not eating like a douche bag All that... and, maybe you got Lyme. Ha

I noticed the wild fires N of Superior yesterday. Their plumes were streaking from source, due E at ludicrous speeds... owing to the ridge amplitude kissing the modest lower heights over midriff Canadian shield. ..blah blah. That said, there's definitely an MCS that's raged through eastern Ontario ...curving now SE through western QUE and is producing the typical outflow anvil canopy. It seems likely based upon these observations that both are true. It's probably hard to parse out of the vis satellite images how much is smoke and how much is cloud...I'd suggest most of what is seen is cloud however.

I knew what you meant ... I was just adding for general readers that physics requires that a well mixed column has to obey the adiabat temperature distribution in general. If it is 2 am , and the 850 is 20C, and it is well mixed, it's in the 90s at the sfc. Whether or not the atmosphere can be well mixed at 2 am or not is another matter LOL. That's why nearing evening on hot days, if one is excruciatingly nerdy enough like me... they might notice the light west wind that had steadily rustled leafs all afternoon suddenly goes calm; it's because the surface - albeit still hotter'n Hades - has slipped below the adiabat. That adiabatic temperature might be 98 given the 850, but the sfc has by then dropped below that temp...etc. DP plays a role... if the air is heavier it may stay elevated longer. The other way to think of it is that the mixing height has slipped lower than 850, and if there is a weaker/no gradient in those lower levels, that extinguishes the momentum.

If it is “mixed“ to 850 and it’s 27 at 850 then the sfc has to be consistent with the adiabatic curve. Time of day doesn’t matter.

What was Dec 2014 like there

The issue with Carrington+ solar super storms is that the grid was not engineered with those in mind. There are no safe-guards, there are no redundancies after the fact. "In the cards" isn't really the issue - unless we mean at some unknown point in the future. But there's nothing imminent. As far as when? dice roll. Beryllium-10 and chlorine-36 are manufactured when the atmosphere is bombarded by cosmic rays associated with super storms and left as residue in the wake. They have been sampled in deep ice coring ... occurring in irregular intervals between 400 to 2400 years apart - the grid as we know it is utterly defenseless against these class of event. Infrastructural engineering over generations did not have solar physics in mind. Carrington+ event with the current physicality of the grid would result in a pan-systemic failure that would not be recoverable without physically replacing substation and connective utility infrastructure at a global scale. This is not hyperbole. This not fabrication of social media and/or media selling drama and fear for profit. This is fact. This verifiable. This is not something one can just not believe in because we live in an age where people think if they don't like hearing something they can choose not to believe it, and that makes it untrue. It's true whether one believes it or not.