Typhoon Tip

Slightly colder run again but moving too fast would mitigate

Actually... "DE"phasing is more the problem ... the flow splitting because the +PNA ridge is biased west is actually blanketing the entire region down stream over the continent in a negative interference - it's just another form of shear stressing

So I'm looking for the 15th S/W spacing and it's not even in our hemisphere until 30+ hours ... that circle in the top left half way to Japan appears to trace. Yeah, about as close to 100% chance that this things going to morph all over hell and gone before we need to worry about it

Everyone's hung up on phasing for some reason... I was under the impression this 15th ish was Miller A Those aren't phases usually until the get past our latitudes; the clio on Mill As is that they get captured near NS or NF and then we see why Baffin Island is basically just big bald barren rock. personally I haven't seen much evidence that this was going to be a subsume or any other type of phasing ?

yup, Euro ridge more eclipsing the WC and we see some improvements aloft ( 500 mb evolution) downstream.

Euro ridge more eclipsing the WC and we see some improvements aloft ( 500 mb evolution) downstream. Not sure where this is going but at 156 this is a better set up for the mid monther heh, wrong thread -

It all evades the real pertinent question for me... why do posters reference those out side this medium like that. Doing so usually couched in a some opinionated bio over how awesome they are Maybe just because of what Brian said? When reality provides a lower dopa potency, people hump delusions of grandeur for their high haha

and it works on a post-modern population's "highly analytical/objective" perception and subsequent court of public opinion, too.

Yeah it's all conservation of momentum and wave mechanics. With a stouter ridge around 110 W ( say ...), the azimuth of the diving S/W is steeper, and that also constructively feedsback on the total amplitude as the L/W and S/W mechanics are in sync so in short, strong S/W ... to which negative tilting is a part of that characteristic

Why do we keep referencing other people that do not appear to be a member and/or contributor in here ? not sure what the purpose of that is for. are we supposed be oohing and in awe of their content? or are we supposed to be impressed that you know this person

As influential posters it is probably equally annoying for us to swing between tones of optimism and then despair, inside the same hour LOL buuut... Re the GFS operational. I do like the position of the western ridge better in this run than the previous. Previous left ... new position right That S/E repositioning may seem subtle but it is crucially important/sensitive in how the wave spacing behaves wrt S/Ws ejected down stream. The subtly more compressed isohypses along the Rockies S flow on the right is also an homage to attempting a ridge farther S/E. You don't ( as winter even enthusiasts ..) want to see the left variant of the +PNA. ... As much. I mean I'm sure in the last 3,000,000 years of eastern N/A there's been event with the left version... but excluding the rarefied scenarios. Anyway, bump that a little more and it would be better.

I don’t think so… The PDO doesn’t directly force the week to week pattern tendencies The PDO is largely a sea surface temperature signal and it’s connected to wind surface stressing over extended periods. I don’t think there’s a lot of proof that there’s a direct physical connection to forcing the pattern. I think the forcing is going in the other direction and maybe there’s a feedback given enough time, but the PDO is an indicator for what the atmosphere has been doing to effect the temperature distribution more than anything else Any other formal studies or whatever, notwithstanding

the 0Z operation Euro and both 0 and 6Z GFS operational runs abandoned the more distant -EPO we were discussing - which was always contingent upon the entire technological ens ambit actually not being full of shit. I dunno. Christ Figure for them being right with all that weight but with doling out of uncertainties seemingly at an all time embarrassment of riches maybe is all a red herring - starting to dream of Feb 8th’s annual solar hole escape date … Just issue fatigue talking … Anyway, just thought I’d point out that oddity about the op versions.

It's kind of hilarious to be defaulting to a thaw when looking at a +PNA crawling up into a -EPO look. It's times like these I wonder ... when/if the pattern actually flips warm, what the f will that entail.

So enabling for deniers... ... particularly, deniers all carry one particular almost necessary trait in order to be denying, and that's the inability ( perhaps a psychological limitation/aptitude - ) to simultaneously be aware of what they are looking at, with respect to keeping the big picture in mind. Their processing disconnects those two, and of course when limited by that state of awareness...that defaults their reason preferentially to just what is perceivable via their personal senses - in the construction/impression of reality. This is a long winded to way of describing the 'pin-head' nimrod with head up fucking asshole. In this case above, the cold over N/A is just perfect to jam head deep up myopic butt holes, and claim that is the reality. I think it is uneven evolution. I think there is a gene, a very necessary one ... for contemplation and objective reasoning that includes a broader dimension that what is merely available via the biologic sight and sound. If people don't have this, they are prone to denial - in anything. The rest is just immoral douchery... ( the preceding is tongue-in-cheek cynicism that somehow smacks as having some real value )