Typhoon Tip

700 mil bar winds being west Northwest, north of the warm front is the problem It kept it pinned down there in southern PA, despite having southwest wind at the surface on either side of the boundary. It gets sawed off aloft. All we get is residual elevated convective blips amid strata rains. Cool and humid. that phenomenon of the winds bending back southeast north of the warm front preventing it from coming in as something I’ve seen in this part of the country quite frequently actually over the decades I’ve lived here. Meanwhile, warm front looks in the pgf like it’s in a laminar flow/no resistance, but they just don’t move because of it.

84/47 ... lot of mid 40s dps. Our source tomorrow is behind a warm boundary smearing through circa 10am to 2 ... after which we sector wedge 88/72's like lower Michigan - maybe. Getting from here to there seems like a warm over instability op tonight.

Pretty clearly a circulation formulating west of Sarasota

Heh... looks pretty clear via the higher res vis images I looped that the convection down there fired off in the region below the axis of denser smoke. In fact, probably the training ran along the temperature gradient between N NJ where it was denser, vs where more sun/sfc heating was realized.

you're dreamin' That's an autumn shut-it-downer pattern big time

If the pattern keeps doing this ... ? fire up the May/2027 thread

The loop I just provided suggests we might be in trouble by 2 ...4pm

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G18&sector=gwas&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

Did the Trump admin finally just shoot down GOES ?

He should crack the window of his cruiser

I was just looking at that stuff... According to CPC most recent power point, yet the present NINO 3.4. regional anomalies ( found here: https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/?dm_id=nino3.4 ) are already floating around +2.00 C. So, either their CFSv2 product is less accurate as a predictive use ( by over a whole deg C ), or... Climate Reanalyzer's data is suss. I don't really care to get into that ..per se, I'm really just more interested in general with the comparison between monitoring vs modeling: where are we?

I just saw a meme on Instacrap that labeled 838 concurrent wild fires draped from N Alberta to western Quebec across the Canadian Shield Who knows if that's true or not but it does spark the question for me, what is the average number of Canadian wild fires per season? assuming a 'season' is whatever April through whenever October

mm ... I suspect the trepidation surrounds whether the population is a controlled drop, or is just something that's emergent and the exactitude of causality is open to mystery. Everyone's been taught that population growth has gone on unchecked for generations and that needs to stop... of course. But how that happens: it's either a controlled landing, or it's a Value Jettting

that's what I meant by, "or generationally" more or less