Typhoon Tip

Actually yeah... can almost see a pathway to improvement - yup, right when I f'n clicked Submit Reply. Told ya The visible loop now better exposes that there are two main ceiling layers. The higher one is moving exceptionally fast for this time of year... That's another thing. wow. Perceived 'back edge' moved from near Syracuse NY at dawn, to almost Albany in 1.5 hours. Some 150 miles ? that's 100mph. That seems a bit fast for September 1? more like a flat flow in winter thing. interesting. Anyway, depending on the underwear in this scenario...as the upper peals away here over the next couple of hours we'll see how much grunge lingers frumunda -

I only glanced at the NAM so probably low scoring anyway, but the front appears behind schedule relative to what I saw. Supposed to be thru the region far enough to improve skies and elevate temperatures all the way to Logan by 2pm. Looking at morning satellite, doesn't lend much confidence of those two metrics laying into the area, huh. I'm routinely wrong in this morning arm chair analysis shit, though. I always see them pessimistically and then usually ... the moment I click 'Submit Reply' it was as though the button really said should, 'Clear skies and warm up anyway' hidden from me. So we'll see.

It seems NE of New York City this summer ... we rain just fine synoptically, as we've had three definitive events each raining pan-regionally 1.5 to 3" ( yes with some exceptions in either direction). Anything remotely related to convection has resulted in either less, or not at all...depending on one's specific location. This is just going from memory and being a weather dweeb and always paying attention to what's going on.. so, taken fwiw I have only had one direct thunderstorm at my location. It occurred when I was away on vacation. Otherwise, ...nadda. I realize this region of the continent does appear challenged for convection - certainly there is a grousing/commiserating support group mentality going on in this social media over the matter ( jesus -). But relative to our climatology, nadda is an exceptionally low result even for SNE summer - both by numbers and anecdotally. I can honestly say, I've never seen that in the 45 years I've been a New Englander. I actually have a high confidence understanding as to why this took place, but if the orbit of the moon is the extent of the average reader's attention span or even will to use the energy to read in here, the former explanation unfortunately requires the orbit of Pluto ... so -

In October today would be +10

100% It's not a matter me agreeing. The bold, and in fact all this is so. Whether one agrees or not.

Ha ...right. You know, no one's asking; this is purely personal - I'm so f'n fed up with winter's being some how some way just not nearly as impactful or even interesting to watch unfold ... years stacking on top of years of that shit, too, I've given up on that ever being different. For one, CC leans in the background and at some point, we have to admit that winter's as we knew them will be gone forever. That's just incontrovertible logic - we cannot continue to warm and expect snow. At some dope slap obvious to objective reality point in future time, the former will stop the latter. I sense some of that is claiming winter's real-estate already. Probably why these winter's are becoming increasingly more challenged to finding a foothold over the longer term "quality means". Which we hide in time locality just because we happen to get two storms that were 20". 20" storms used to be rare; CC -drive H20 vapor density increasing in the ambient makes that more possible. But this is transient during this part of the CC curve... Those are destined to be rain events in similar atmospheric structures of the future. While in between them, like Brian intimates very correctly, we're floating above climo in the ambience. This is the insidious nature of CC. It's not going to "turn off" winters like that. It's going to erode at the edges and punch more and more holes in previous assumptions of interim storm behaviors here and there. Ultimately ... diminishing returns. It could happen faster? sure. It could slow down and regress one year or two or even three over a decade, but the destiny ain't changin' I feel we're already going down that road... and doing so at a bad time of my life. I'm middle aged now, a time when a lot of people quite naturally start losing interest in winter anyway. I think I have to admit, I'd rather continue with outdoor activities straight through. So, I'm feel both my ability, and will to defend winter, combined to putting my interest in deep trouble. I realize I may be one in maybe 3 or 4 members in this particular social media that share's in any similar motivation. I'm not here to diminish winter for anyone else. It's just a take I don't deny. Folks can still count on me to be objective about individual threats and/or general pattern assessments.

The pattern foot with the -CGT summer synoptic has plagued now for 6 weeks .. and is striking hard locally. It's ultimately causing the deep flow to sag over SE Canada --> confluence, which in turn generates a stalled albeit weak ( but still stronger enough than the sub trop high, S) high pressure in the perfect location to bang us like a upstate NY rape shack. It's stealing what remains of our geriatric dying summer with this achronological BD stagnation shit we have going on - wedging in other words. It was 88/79 at several sites I observed around the S Great Lakes yesterday afternoon, a latitude that is essentially the same as Worcester Ma. And as that annotation above demos, this is not autumn - straw man argument - this is a location's bad luck with respect to the how the gears of the hemisphere put us in this resulting cool local anomaly. The models are attempting to break this down and introduce some late gasping attempt at heat, ...when the sun is gone ... ...but they've also been doing this beyond D5's for few days now and we keep correcting troughs as digging through eastern ONT/QUE - so long as the latter happens, this will go on to being the earliest end of summer in decades perhaps... a qualification buried by the sensible appeal of still being sort of mild or even warm from time to time since late July.

The warm front never actually got N of you ...

Seems to be a cocktail of events ... the old 'chain of misfortune culminating in the plain crash' scenario. I do think that this event began years ago, so to speak ( mentioned the reciprocal thawing and refreezing aspect a while ago, too). I'm also wondering if water accumulating at the glacial-floor interface may have been partially instrumental. In this idea, the integrity of the ice being compromised, then, ...the floor friction can't hold the weight back from being 'lubricated' ...so all that was remaining was ice itself. Made for an easier instance of calving and away she went. Every good play on Broadway took months of preparation for just 2 hours of show.

The NINO is not super at this time The NINO is not causal in why this outlook above appears the way it does

Here's a not-so-novel aspect about ice vs water: when water freezes its volume necessarily expands by 12% to make room for the H20 molecules arranging geometrically into their crystalline position/lattice. That lattice then requires more space in order to achieve this hexagonal configuration among the handshaking molecules. etc... What may or may not be more novel is the application of this basic principle as partial triggering mechanism. If the combination of CC and summer sun have been periodically thawing and refreezing the glacial mass over and over again (decadal), the interstitial integrity of glacial body may have cracked. Fracturing over recent years. Basically we're just describing the glacial destabilization near it's front edge and the pooling of near freezing water and seepage that goes on with the retreating. It's a complex system, but at the end of the day, epistemic awareness ... We can either spend 20 years formulating a high degree confidence polynomial mathematical expression that describes a system to within 99% certainty, proving what we already know, or, we just have to accept that expanding and contracting the ice through these processes will weaken it over time. This both increases calving events, in turn increasing the probability for this to have occurred. Increasing glacial melt --> filling glacial lakes and kettle geological features --> upstream calving then careens forth and there we go

It's hard to parse out what did what and how much, in the run up to this specific states and scenarios. In considering France's issues with agriculture, this was likely set into motion over decades when looking at this as an epistemic/a-priori approach. I'm not personally with any confidence that this specific 'onsetting' warm ENSO has much to do with it frankly. Quick primer ( I get it that you know this.. just for the general reader). As we know El Ninos typically begin to formulate during summers, then maturing during autumn and early winters. This one appears to fit that climatology so far... More importantly, during these prefaces of onset the wholesale seasonal gradients are still flaccid. That's a crucial consideration in the presumptions. Because... the gradient determines where the jet structures will ultimately bias; that becomes the El Nino characterization if/when the El Nino is sufficiently coupled. As an aside, the warming total atmosphere associated to CC is limiting the coupling. Why? because the gradient of winter is being lifted to higher latitudes - that is distancing that latitude (geometrically), so the coupling is getting amorphously defined. Enters RONI... Relative ONI is pure statistical approach to the resulting slipping/lowering observed effectivity. The 2nd aspect that makes the causal parsing a challenge is that the heat and drought has been an improving frequency and specter for decades, doing so regardless of a ENSO variances in either direction over that time. Having said all that, here's where there's an angle: I think there is a gray area in the completer understanding as to what actually triggers the modal oscillation of ENSO. In that area of speculation, conjecture and hypothesis, it may yet be shown that the circulation modes outside the tropics are somehow transitively causing the tropical wind patterns to occasionally reverse. Like the noise over time organizes into a sinusoidal harmonic feedback, at a whole-Earth atmosphere scale. If something like that were taking place then it would be entirely possible/reasonable that machinery 'switching gears' did something to specifically enhance France's agricultural problems now. But, since the specter of heat and drought goes back years, parsing out what's to blame ...mm intuitively argues it's just a CC related matter in general. At some point, if the CC continues to change .. it may herald in a new behavior there and abroad. It's areas of the curve favor a phenomenon typology.

so it begins...

Wiz' is gonna have a thread some day that's titled "May 1st - October 2nd, convective episodes so plenty I'm totally bunning out"