Typhoon Tip

Speak of the devil... "Oceans near record heat again as El Niño conditions begin to build" https://phys.org/news/2026-05-oceans-el-nio-conditions.html https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/?dm_id=world2

It's also been going on since last October, too. All but one month, which is arguable anyway ..., were showing a plaguing cold anomaly, either in scalar extreme when not relative to the whole planet, situated over the eastern N/A latitudes .(.aka, us ) since late last autumn. I've been posting them since mid winter. NASA releases them around the 10th... so April should be prepped soon. I would not be shocked and in fact expect to see this has continued. We may still be "above normal" ... or not. But if we are, we will likely be still cooler than everywhere else.

it's a winter pattern in the curvature/geometric orientation, but the sun's forcing it's will ... such that the former is doing so around spring hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic heights. It's been this way all spring thus far. 80 F? doesn't matter... that's just the higher relative hydro and non hydro heights. And the fact that it never lasts longer than a day, no sooner and there's frost on the car tops so quickly - it's like a cutter pattern in January, just dong so with spring heights. Below is being forced by some sort of background/non-linear forcing that we've been plagued with for weeks. It's been the resting/return state ... unrelenting. We're still in winter. We need to get away from this... These blue hydrostatic height lines keep laze faire drooping down as we're speeding toward the solstice and it's gotten rather anachronistically late. We don't have to be 87/63 ... But, lows both predominately and pervasively < 40F, even preceding "warm" afternoons (fake warmth that feels like it's bleeding out) is not going the right way and are just numbers and sensible appeals being created by a zombie winter baseline, hauntingly late. This, while the world is presently in 3rd place warmest ever (relative to date/CC).... too. zomb!

https://phys.org/news/2026-05-rapidly-antarctic-ice-shelves-global.html

Interesting article ... scientists having pitted AI against SRES model systems. It inspires new research ideas for me where this could just be a start. But in so far as what it achieves, the basic finding is that AI is under-selling extreme events, performing demonstratively worse than standard physics-based SRES modelling - particularly with intensity handling. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aec1433

might be a dangerous heat wave toward the end of the month

I know ...but that's the tip off. I mean, there's only so much Earth can do. haha

Ha.... better than "flawless" that's a neat trick... But you know, in quantum mechanics there can apparently be to concurrent states so ... maybe you can have both perfect and perfect Haven't looked at the weekend yet

It's -SAD, or "summer SAD" in psychobabble, Scott. (he/she is not the only one I suspect suffers that in here )

no matter what the species... they're called 'widow makers' for a reason. heh

Thursday's a top 10 ...maybe top 5 day if using these raw FOUS grid numbers ( NAM). 7 kts NW down sloping compression under +3 or +4 850 mb. Mixing probably limited to 900 or 875 but with unadulterated early solar max irradiance at 100%, the sounding will been dry air unstable to 900 feet or so and it will be warmer than standard adiabat in the lowest layer That's approaching flawless.

Norway is a "soft" hard maple wood? What were the circumstances behind the felled tree ? I happen to like the spring flower blossoms of the Norway - they have a nice aroma that reminds me of spring. It sort of fades into Lilac season... It's probably just sentimental nostalgia from having grown up with them. I just didn't have any reason to be aware of any issues with them. They're trees. Pretty yellow and orange pallets in the autumn.

70 so far the wind's a no show here. Perhaps we have a thinly stable layer just yet...

well sign me up

Not sure about "big" per se... but I agree. I explained this yesterday/why... at the time, the signal is/was mostly numeric, with some hint in the actual spatial synoptics of the general ensemble means. The operational models were, and in some cases still are, lagging a bit on that. The 00z operational Euro's extended is now just detecting the change. First to do so. It's got some spuriously oddly wrapped cyclones in the interim running up where it shouldn't but removing those and normalizing out those daily aspects that look engineered by the run .. the height changes paint an 80/60 day-night regime from IND-BOS, in real seasonal move. We'll see if the others begin to do so.