Typhoon Tip

Heh... they did expand the Slght into NE after all

agreed... wild digression ...buuut: all of society is bottle-necking reliance with technology. While doing so, there's no redundancies. There should be back up systems that achieve the same tasks, like in "off" mode, ready to be turned on in the event of calamity. It's getting closer to a one system handling everything. Banking, to heart surgery, to flying airliners, to surfing porn on the web, and everything else that machines civility along, if that one agency goes down, heh... It's too easy to even write that Sci Fi dystopian novel. First, make the entire species slaved to one system, which is eventually either by design or hostility, taken over by a proverbial Skynet type agency ...and well, shit - we've already seen that movie, huh. But anyway, I see this kind of thing all the time. I wish they still would run old systems that worked, but were abandoned because of the evolution of ease and convenience. Like if the NBM future system has an outage... we can still look at the constituent parts.

Yeah.. this is what I was suggesting to you yesterday ... there's a warm boundary that the Euro and GFS are less coherently defining. The NAM on the other hand is kinking the PP enough to suggest a triple point goes underneath Logan. I have seen both scenarios verify in situations like this. I am not presently seeing anything that argues for either. About split.

mm... this doesn't lower the value nor significance of the statistical correlation - which is synoptic/ holistic in scale. Not a discrete convective level/meso analysis/indicator. Which there are no known telecons that can be that predictively discrete. For obvious reasons... The point is that the set ups tend to move that incremental spatial-temporal range in the 24 hour window. Hell, not every +PNA/-NAO creates a winter storm here, either, and that's dealing with scales that are far more obvious to the physics.

in this case, not any specifics, but I’m better than 50/50 that cool ‘potential’ before the end of June, we are in back below normal, is subjected to being modified ….how much so remains to be seen… And that bigger heat’s likely returned by July 1 … which means it could even be earlier

Lol well, I’m not in any kind of troll fight between you two I’m just trying to clarify what I’ve already said many times too, about those probability charts, but everybody keeps posting them like it’s a colder than normal outlook. He may not have intended that just makin sure .

You sound far too certain of that for 222 hours out Also keep in mind those are probability charts are not actually cooler than normal in the scaler sense It’s telling you, there’s a low chance for cooler than normal and it doesn’t say how much cooler is normal either

Seemin' like y'all tryin to will a super phat dope ass nuclear nino

Drive 12 hours in any direction on land and you're still 90 or better

Yeah, SPC is taking the typical NE approach in stopping short of our lat/lon for slight and period 5s. But I can imagine that will need to be extended NE.

Mm...it sounds sorta like you're idealizing against a Plains profile in the back of your mind. Not trying to tell you what you're thinking- just seems that way... If so, no. We don't do that around here - not very often anyway. EOF 1 and 2 swarms. In 1954, we set up 4,000 foot tall stove pipe finger of god and sent it drillin' for oil down near Worcester... In 2010...sort of hybrid of that in Monson. Otherwise, that's apples to oranges for low LCL events. High shear/helicity profiles spin even meager updraft motion, lower in the troposphere. Which ... not all the models concur on that profile, admittedly - some have the warm front clearing house (NAM). However, I'm also using an a-priori in knowledge/experience. Warm boundaries don't just waltz on thru like the models are doing Thursday morning. So I could be wrong there. If the warm front, incongruent to our climate as it may be, effortlessly and without resistence ... sails on past by 15z, we'll see the blue tinted hill side under blazing sun-wasted torrid miasma of 76F DPs because of weak sauce lapse rates and insufficient triggers. But there is one other option...hm. You know, I'm not sure this is an analog - probably not at discrete analysis... but it does remind me of June 1987 ..I think it was around the 10th or 15th.. A morning warm front with elevated convection that actually became severe ... sending warned cells through midriff ORH county ... It all passed off by noon with abrupt clearing. The warm front cold front wedge was then in place. By 1:30...full sun soared T over TD ... 86/73. An explosion of thunderstorms erupted up the Mohawk Trail W of ALB, and as it came ESE ... it evolved into a small Derecho ( probably would have been a big one if it didn't move out over the ocean later that evening...). It came down Rt2 with routine gusts to 70mph, quarter sized hail, and a lot of power outages during the evening.

Watch Michigan the day before ... tomorrow afternoon and evening. There's a little known 24-hour lead/lag Michigan to Massachusetts telecon that exists - and in this case ... the chart progression makes obvious the reason why.

That's what really popped out of the data for me was the shear... About as high as it can be - Anytime I have a chance to lose my audience in here, I take it! so here we go: whenever you see high arctan angles ... ex, .... resulting from curvature of the pressure field ( the circle), and you are in the SE quadrant of a total cyclonic envelope like below, you have large +helicity where ... ...is located. Throw the fact that there's prooobably a warm boundary subtended/cutting straight across the tendency to turn, with it's excessively focused frontal induced curvature sending local tendencies into insane SRH... that becomes a total constructive feedback that sends roof tops on a magic carpet ride. Now... consider the 570+ thickness advection clear to Brian's latitude, with 576 testy hairs tickling the pike... with QPF smeared around the illustrations? That means you have very low LCL's to draw any rotating columns down into the boundary layer. ...as though that's even needed given the former constraints. my god I mean ... may as well just put a tornado warning for everywhere now and call it a day

I think it's one of those days where satellite is lying everywhere. There's more black than white on vis looping yet I'm getting something like 1/4th sun per hour