Typhoon Tip

Heh who knows about after the 15th that’s beyond the end of 360 hours of modeling; it is complete speculation with extremely low odds. I was just speaking in deference to this single model run … People that are claiming that this is cooling things back off again within those frames probably had trouble letting go of the tooth fairy in their youth. I don’t know.

GFS was mild in general… pretty much like we’ve been saying Mild it up and melt it off Whether we get some kind of warmer spike in there at a time or two remains to be seen, but it’s undeniable that that’s backing the Arctic jet further in Canada and exposing the lower 48 states to more pretty red sicknesses

Low DPs Get that up to 60/40 and you'll see bare ground in 2 days flat, particularly if it is either sunny, or especially if it rains with DP over 37-ish

This is actually the first day of the impending warm season where the sun offsets CAA. It's forcing is lagging the CAA - helped also by the fact that it's a light d-slope also. But this is common in spring and summer. Sometimes, we actually get "hot" behind cold fronts when the d-slope dries out and the intense diabatic flux then extends the BL and we roast under retarded/offset 850s. That night it'll shed 30 F though When the sun kisses the western horizon, the temp's going to drop like a disgraced prom date.

mm.. Brian makes a good point on that. well, firstly...the whole "season's back broke" thing is both stupid, and my fault. I'm the one that first proffered that metaphor back 15 years ago. ... I remember doing so, and have regretted having done so, ever since. Because people don't use it within the restraint of objectivity; they abuse the use and/or there is no consistent definition of what that is. Mostly, whomever doesn't like the season at hand cites the back broke sentiment at least excuse to do so which isn't the purpose of that either. When I first said that years ago, it was in deference to the 'pattern of summer' breaking down. There are certain climo pattern return tendencies for each season. In august, we typically do so the first signs that it is teetering. This is sensibly revealed by no longer being as persistently hot(not being cold) in latter summer or winter, respectively. What's skewing matters is CC ( also) because we are observing summer looks in Novembers, and winter looks in Mays. It's why I regret ever starting that meme saying. It's like backs are healing for more hefting. In this case of winter 2026 and what Brian's sort of intimating there, a big blocking episode was ending in mid February, and folks had March right there in their foresight by then, so it seemed just as good a time. It just so happens we tucked a historic storm in there. LOL

Ah... both things can be true. 'Sides, to be fair ... it's snowed 30" in April before, when winter's back was most definitely broke. LOL

Ha ha... I don't think Brian likes the dullard plight of reality

Probably just an AN tendency marred by occasional frontal positions ...typically for March. Cold enthusiasts pimping their impressions of the marring times, while heat enthusiasts cherry pick warm afternoon 2-meter outlooks that are beyond D7 lol. At the end of the two weeks, neither side has more than a shit eating grin to show for it.

Well, in any event ... first day of Meteorological spring. Time of the year when the streets can start steaming while it is snowing.. more so toward mid month+ but we're gettin' there. As I pointed out earlier, the indices are giving numerical values that have correlated to some impressively warm departures in springs of the past. However, the operational models ( save maybe the 00Z CMC) are not expanding their solution to fill that gap. They're coming out with solutions that are 50 (GFS) or 70% (Euro). I have to say, I don't really have a problem with that limited idea. The PV is decidedly on our side of the NP/hemisphere... These overnight ensemble means are showing a rather extraordinarily deep signature out there between the 15th and 20th anchored around the Canadian archipelago - granted that's a long ways off, during a spring month no less doesn't lend a lot of confidence/stability expectations, but they all three have it. Pure speculation, but that being there (if/when...) likely compresses the gradient and keeps the atmosphere fast, as well as chillier from the GL-NE at those latter times. We'll see.

I doubt it's a joke for a lot of you...

The indices for the mid month would allow for a warmer look than the operational runs are really committing to over these last couple of cycles No one‘s failing to see any fucking trees. There are some people that are ignoring the tea leaves in lieu of any solution that looks like or placates/enabling your friggin psychosis with winter and getting model dopa hits ha It may be that the operational runs are more right than the index sometimes that happens To reiterate for the 18th time, I wouldn’t go much more than a melt or mud season onset for the time being.

Bump for the ( learning impaired + asshole)/2

Well apparently it is ... because I've been on the conservative side of how warm it will get all along, and you keep dipshittingly misrepresenting what I've been saying.

I've been pushing more of a 'melt and mud' season for the time being. There's a higher ceiling than that. However, in deference to the fact that every month since last October has successfully targeted this region of the continent for disproportionate cold relative to the whole hemisphere, it's hard to imagine this warm up performing at the higher end - just based on that unmitigated persistence. If that present Euro-modeled 564+ dm thickness surge makes it inside of 84 hours on guidance, fine... I'll tell yeah ...wouldn't it be interesting to see a 70s transporting warm front run over this snow pack though?

That's like a 'rubber band' pattern at the end of that GFS. Basically ... the model loses the forcing that driving the predominating signal earlier in the run's time spans. Pulls away leaving default huge instability - bounces back and overcompensates. That's likely all manufactured by normal accumulation of a randomness over time finally buckling the scaffold of the total synopsis and then that emerges, equally as a result of randomness. In other words, there's pretty much 0 practical usefulness of that storm/chart. Having said that...yeah, in principle, the warm pattern is not likely to last indefinitely ... even though I want it to. HAHAHA. Personal druthers aside, I wouldn't be shocked if the warm pattern begins to progress off and the emergence of a western limb -NAO burst happens. It's in the latter sequence of events that here may be a last hurrah winter expression ...be it temperatures and annoyance or perhaps an actual event. Boinnnng or not, the GFS also looks like what it does every year's first 2nd or third warm up - I know...because I whine about it ...every year at this time. It washes out warm signal prematurely and then resets the basal pattern back to Feb 1. Not sure why it predictably does this, but that pattern at the end of the run with those long wave spaces and deep heights over Canada strikes me as suspiciously the same thing it does ever early to mid spring.