Typhoon Tip

26 here already

That’s always possible in fast flow but those look spaced reasonably well. It also helps that they’re both flat waves and probably more middling intensity

I don’t understand what the big deal is with the Epstein files anyway… you’re not gonna be seeing the real ones anyway. The only reason why there’s any kind of impetus to release those files finally is because they’re finally done redacting them – obviously

It's more the 29th ... but yeah. It's too low confidence to know about track and amplitude - the latter's probably too strong in this run though. Might be the first multi-region/full synoptic event of the season; don't need it to be heading for the 980s in order to do it. This is open wave NJ model low. They can bomb so we can't through the idea away entirely, but given to the progressive nature ... a middling system fits better.

Fwiw or not ... I'm not a big fan of the MJO unless it's in constructive interference with the WPO mode...or it has a tough time propagating convection out of the marine subcontinent. It has to do that or there's no latent heat flux --> dispersion forcing to the modulate the subtropical coupling to the mid latitudes ..etc. Right now, the RMM shows the wave struggling on the 6 wave number region, probably also because it's negatively interfering with the W. Pac/La Nina. To me that's like a "predictive firewall" ... we'll see what happens if that wave collapse tendency is real. If it is not, then the way may indeed escape the W. Pac gauntlet later in 7 ... The 7 composite is actually a cool anomaly from the NP-GL-NE regions... and then it would be in positive interference in the Americas in 8-1-2. So it's like a yes-no-yin-yang- neg-pos along this wave's progression. I figure the WPO/EPO signal is precedent (there first) ...the MJO arriving late is liable to get damp some. The question is ... does it punch through. I'm aware the RMM has it going nuts in some of the guidance types way out there in late 7. The MJO is not a pattern forcer... it's a pattern modulator. And the latter depends on the whether neg or pos interference. It needs to be positive

But again ... it's may be splitting hairs. If there's -WPO/-EPO through other means, you're ending up in the same consequence.

That's about right.... it takes about 20 days ( three weeks)... I've shown this before but here. This example was 2004. Text book high altitude intrusion event, then nodal mass down welling with 3 or so week lag prior to AO forcing/'blocking' This example actually first became evident over Xmas week prior to Jan 1 ... and the AO crashed by the 20th.

the other clue ... if this pattern change, which we're at t-minus 6 or 7 days from actively reconstructing, was preceded and ultimately coupled to a canonical SSW, the latter would have taken place by the first week of the month. There was nothing...

I don't like the fact that it isn't (first) emergent in the 10 hpa ... This appears to be up-welling from a very strong constructive interference at mid and upper level troposphere between Asia and the N. Pacific. I'm not sure it matters? ha. I mean, whether it's a SSW --> down-welling in the canonical sense and total behavior, or... some sort of fantastic ridge resonance that's bulging the disk from the bottom, the end result may end up with the same consequence... You get blocking and jet distributions S of normal PV latitudes ...and that in this case (sometimes it affects/offloads in Europe/Eurasia preferentially) modeled to favor our side of the hemisphere for a cold mass delivery/jet. It's an interesting question... but if you look at the GFS's 10hpa, no clue there's a warming event. All SSWs in the monitoring history going back to the late 1970s start between 1 and 10hpa, and then down well. This appears to be a "bulging" event. Similar to what Kevin lacks on his anniversary nights...

I've noted the two pulse -EPO behavior in the ensembles. The operation Euro is an amplified outlier with the warm-roll back in between those episodes/-EPO bursts. I'm not inclined to believe it is necessarily correct. The other aspect I'd keep in mind that the models (all of them) tend to go a bit too amplified in the mid-sized spatial events. Not sure that dependable bias expresses as coherently at hemispheric scale ... just something to keep an eye on.

12z oper GFS's 29th NJ model impacter should not be summarily tossed... Not saying it's high confidence - how could I ... But typically the front side wave spaces, while major hemispheric mode changes are underway, are cyclogen active. In principle ...the period of time is okay for activation of storm systems. Way too early to be detailed beyond...

yeah, 19 here. Saturday bottomed out around 29. As I passed by ponds en route to disk golf I noticed ice had crept out about 4 to 6' from the shores, so thin it was gone by early afternoon. Hadn't seen that in recent autumns (I'm the type of nerd that noticed little details like that). Recent Novembers hadn't provided for that intermediate stage in inland ice, but this year hearkens back to that. I didn't venture out this morning but I'm sure at 19 there was probably more than just shore ice.

And then after that, I'm trying to figure out when/if the operational runs start unleashing the goods. With that massive -WPO relay into a -D(EPO) going on at the end of next week, so far it's just a castrated gorilla cold wave ... Yeah, I've been cautioning folks that we may not have to wait until the 2nd week of Dec for something wintry to break in our favor given the modalities from about bird day+ We've benefited ( though the actual daily anomalies may only vaguely show - ) from a -NAO pulsation in the foreground and will continue to do so, then relay that index' collapse into the NE Pac changes. That's not quite the same circumstance as going from a neutral field to a -EPO. This latter tends send the southerly gale up the coast but we're idiosyncratically different when there's antecedent west limbed -NAO.

39/20 in full sun ... it's a winter atmosphere today at least. If there were a snow pack in situ and upstream, we'd probably be stuck closer to freezing.

Looks to me (at this time and based upon recent guidance metrics together with knowledge/history) like we spend a week in a warm anomaly due to the initial shock of negative EPO burst sending a negative implosion down 110 W, but then as typical… natural progression of events will have that spreading east and south as the long wave re-lengthens - that times during the first week on Dec. If things go according to plan, then an introduction of winter probabilities in the first week of December isn’t ridiculous