Typhoon Tip

ah, gotcha

not sure where that poster's getting 'continental flow' out of that 'after the 11th' but what does that mean, 'continental flow'? anyway, those trough nadirs are hitting a min as the 15th is arriving. classical interpretation would suggest there's a storm nested in that time range - but ... i suspect if there is, we need to get past the 7th .. 8th or so before that materializes.

Not to mention ( but will anyway ...), we've 'graduated' into a climate era where the so called 'torches,' I'd argue even in the subjective sense, make 50s a lot easier to do than they were 30 years ago under the same synoptic regimes. Tell ya what ... if folks have an problem with that, leave the word climate out of it and just say that for whatever reason which no one knows any idea why ..whenever it warms up in winter it makes it above 55 more often than it ever used to. Either way, if given any excuse to do so ... there's a fair probability that 40s will end up being underselling. So Kevin, you could see 55 ... but it would be overachieving on what forecasters think is possible. Because that's the other headache, over achieving is not ever modeled. Yet it keeps happening. I dunno ... I'd say you're playin with the kids college tuition if you're gamblin the temp down during the warm phase of all these changes.

It's going be interesting what these smoothed ens mean cinamas look like on or around the 7th .. 8th. Both the EPS and GEPS 12z continued/agree in their idea of a +PNA blossoming by 270 hours, which then within just 3 or 4 days, retrogrades and/or repositions a new ridge in the EPO domain. In fact, the GEPs is rather exotic looking. In principle they agree on that evolution. The GEFs on the other hand offers a more tamed looking +PNA, which then moves and/or retrogrades into the hybrid position between the +PNA and -EPO; similar -EPO amplitude as the EPS way the hell out at the temporal horizon of fantasy range. But, all of these movies are after the big collapse in the N Pac out there in 4 or 5 days.

mm I see some critical changes in the EPS though. namely, 3 days ago ... it, and all of them, were going from the breakdown into a -EPO. 2 days ago, that switched to a +PNA with less coherency inov that Alaskan sector yesterday, we were hybridizing between -EPO and +PNA ..which is like walking on a ruler - not sustainable. meanwhile the operational GFS was thinking it's May 15th now, the EPS is sending a coherent +PNA for 2 to 3 day, that then retrogrades into a -EPO, which is actually kind backward of the canonical evolution. usually, the -epo fades S and the +PNA takes over.... that's like 1 complete cycle. If the winter enthusiast is lucky, that becomes cyclic, meaning more than once. that was 2015... but I'm digressing. Point is, these may seem merely nuanced but they are aberrant enough to gum up the works. all the while, we are waiting for the N. Pacific ridge to collapse.

yeah yeah we're likely ending up in some variant of -EPO to +PNA, either end or somewhere in between. it's all related. but the run to run wild swings ( like the incomprehensible 00z Euro operaitonal) ... and frankly the GFS has zip continuity across the last several cycles... etc, these are going to continue until that variant above is settled.

yup. we've been saying that for days... we have to get thru this week ... large sweeping changes in the Pacific have yet even begin. It starts doing so in earnest this week. until that's further along there is likely to be greater guidance variability than normal, even at larger scales of pattern orientation. just gotta wait it out, man

Finally hit puberty, eh congrats ma’man!

I quipped that as “flower February” a couple a months ago. Didn’t lure much of a following for that one haha. sorry- Not sure if you saw but the MJO desk intimated that the present NINA atmosphere is confined to the tropics … which brings up the question as to how well the hemisphere is actually coupled to the ENSO - or if it’s even sustaining … if so than the NIÑA Feb climo is a fluid assumption … offers a wild card

We're getting some 'giga' movements from the ens means at large scales. It's sort of yawing between a -EPO and a -EPO/+PNA hybrid. The -EPO version is the giant warmup ... The operational GFS had a hard-on and went a bit ludicrously extreme at 12z. The latter type is colder, faster pattern change but at varying speed/unknown. Not sure really which way to go with that. Like I said this morning and still maintain, we really need to get through this week's demolition of the N. Pacific ridge before we can really truly stop getting head-gamed.

The ensemble read off the EPS is a winter storm of sorts signal around 14th followed by a cold intrusion. Obviously at 2 weeks lead that highly subject to change - but the 12z read...

Actually … no ensembles system in the pantheon of the technology has ever performed very well with that particular index domain. … it’s more apt to say they’ve all been fucked since the get-go and it doesn’t appear the custodians of the technology know what to do about it

It’s yo-yoing at large scales tomorrow we could be right back where we were yesterday

heh, I actually knew that when i responded but i'm getting play-by-play fatigue. haha