Typhoon Tip

It's a silly semantic thing. Probably. altho, some may think it actually means something. If the charts look like a low or 41, yet it bottoms 31 at climo holes and the like, those results are disassociated local feedbacks that don't represent the qualitative state of the whole. ... interpreted as "it's not 'posed to be that cold" -almost imagine a tone there that something's unfair. ha Radiational cooling is modified by local feedback phenomenon. But the nature of what that does/is, it is disassociated from the larger expectation - the latter being some combination/weighted seasonality vs synoptics. A product that is evinced by the fact that here we are at 11am and it's 57 unilaterally even where it was 31 - an example. Objective reality: it is both 31 and cold, while being in a 41 suggested holistic synoptic state. Both are true. Nothing else. There is no "fake cold" Nothing novel about this ...it's just the shenanigans of public noise - shimmering with intelligence as it does

it's amazing how the universe finds a way to get to entropy. like ...keep using oil, the temp rises to the point where you don't need to use any oil. problem solved. lol

heh...that region in the NE US looks like the (superstorm 1993 + climate change)/2

I believe Apple's bringing a flip option back

You'll be 27

it's 72 here with warm sun and angel kiss breezes ... he's talking about graupel. ha

There's been a 'year without a summer' ..perhaps more than once. I wonder if there's a year without a winter. Probably there's already been one. Preferential bias just doesn't recognize it... 2012 was close.

Must've beeen distracted ... because the speed in which I've just realized we're moving through the solar transition season is something else. It just occurred to me we are closer to the solar minimum now, than the max, along that timeline journey.

I lived in Winchester in 2003 Feb and can tell you that number was legit for that snow total. The trek into work down 93 and then up the Storrow Drive complex of roads was something to behold in the immediate days following that event. There were large swaths where the plows just didn't or perhaps couldn't penetrate, and a yard of snow just set in place in those areas.

Trying ... If that Euro type solution gets rid of the contamination riding up the ridge heading through Oct 10 then we're going historic in that look the 11th -13th But, that's obvious 8-11 days away so just eye candy for warm enthusiasts for now

Right on schedule here along rt 2 ...this leg of it anyway. Color schemes are also species consistent without unusuals. This is the first 'climatological foliage' behaving year in some time...

No disagreement ... it's a low probability return. sure. The tussle I meant to expand upon is that as this fledgling season is coming in, there is increasing modeled injects off the NE Pac of these -2 SD polar anomalies. They're rocketing along the interface of a vast southern geopotential positive anomaly. Whenever they do, that S/W moves from MT to NS in about a coffee break. Really fast. These -2 waves may in fact expose a suppressed -PDO type exertion - a sort of "non-linear"/invisible lingering -PDOness. heh. somethin like that... So early on, the conflict may be brewing. I hear you about 2023 but I thought of 2023 as not a real El Nino frankly. Yeah, it met the criteria of course in the traditional scope and scale. Of course. But even in a RONI reprocessing, RONI isn't perfect either... My thing is that the Earth system was still in the throws really of registering that giant spring burst in thermal recovery that took place. It superseded the ENSO onset - and was also ... ( I feel strongly ) wrongly attributed to being because of the onsetting El NINO... but it was the wrong epistemic direction. Because the former happened first! we can go around and around with that... but the point is, there were concurrent massive signals and it'll take a lot more necessary math and science in order to figure out what was really proxy on that ensuing winter. I think having a whole planet warm a half degree C (fun trivia: ~ equivalent to 250 times the yield of the world's nuclear arsenal detonated at once. If we include the jump in the ocean to that calculation, it's thousands of time greater, btw -) needs to unequivocally explained before believing the ENSO that year was proxy over something with enough energy to holocaust the planet 250 times over. I dunno, but now years on that warm burst is hypothetically, fully 'absorbed' and accounted for in the ongoing machinery of the ID CGT ( Intradecadal circum-global teleconnector)...yet, we are left with a -PDO suggestion that should not be there given this scope of ENSO. These are compelling concepts for me anyway- Or not.. could all turn out to be nothin. But in the balance... teetering one way or the other comes down to unbalanced forcing.

Jokes aside, I do suspect there's something in the -PDO mode of the atmosphere over the N arc of the Pac Basin that may parlay. Not certain on that... no It's just an 'intuitive arithmetic' of having the -PDO ... correlating -EPO, then vying over top a canonical ENSO driven STJ. The N. Pac is that "hangover" concept we were discussing back whenever that was? I don't keep apprised of the indexes weekly however. I just glance at the scalars. I see the models tussling already. I think that behavior matters - they are physically processing and so whatever their logistical biases are can mean one of two aspects: a, they are picking up on something in the atmospheric forcing spectrum; b, they are just wrong. The latter concern is ameliorated some by fact that all the models are doing this ( more what that is in a moment). They don't all have the identical physical equations built into their processing - though principally the same. So that means whatever is triggering persisting biases either way, it's likely something real in the background. Obviously this is all very experimental -

Well yeah there's that too. Joe sets coffee down in the throws of some weird bi-polar pulse of gaiety firing off that morning, and the first thing he eats are "doomer" words of absolute dog turd ... That's gonna result in the bell of round one. haha No but I was just musing along very general take on matters.