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Typhoon Tip

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  1. tru ... but I was being sarcastic over what that would look like if the lost generational 'normal' alpine october temperatures were in play. hint hint, 50" of snow which i'm not even sure the back whence october 20 is too early even then. but then it wouldn't be as funny.
  2. Fermi Paradox explanation, incarnate if you ask me. It is a personal hypothesis of mine; in it's simplest preface states, 'the species evolves the ability, and then the ability unwittingly devolves the species'. Which yet even more succinctly equates to, 'species evolution emerges the devolution of the species' Whether there is any veracity to that idea or not, we cannot deny the intuitive suspicion, nor the outright observation of the 'emerging Idiocrasy' phenomenon, and the precarious vision of that state of affairs being in charge of a climate future, nuclear armament future, biological toxicity future ...etc, etc. Maybe human evolution has reached the point whence the Law of Diminishing Returns has kicked it. The law of diminishing returns, often referred to as the law of lessening returns, states that if you keep increasing one factor of production while keeping others constant, the additional output gained from each new unit of that factor will eventually decrease... I mean ... we can see that with a modest interpretation of that we might be observing how more and more provision of resource, both physical or informed, is resulting in less productivity ( perhaps a perversion of "intelligentsia" for this context ). Less is coming back from the people being effected by all that provision. Perhaps that's twisting things too much, but I don't believe so. It's anecdotal, but an example: I've been finding vis-à-vis. more and more with this current version of humanity, when ideas like the above are floated in mixed company, the points and/or abstractions fail to comprehended as readily as they once did ... decades ago. I'm just now old enough to recall water cooler conversations where among the colloquy were sincere head nodders. Now, you get a more gaped jaws under blank stares, followed by a some effacing joke about it being over heads. Maybe in some physics sense it is also entropy growing within the system - I kind of like that actually. Because we learn via formal academia that entropy does in fact gain in every system that exists in nature. Entropy in simplest definition is the measure of disorder in a system. So why would the evolutionary process not have to pay the "cosmological tax" of disorder. It is not hard to see how species evolution might lead to the devolution. The reason is plainly acceptable, if one understands evolution to begin with, more specifically how it works. Evolution perfects the specie's ability to survive by a transactional relationship between chance mutations during and preceding competition. Those with insufficient mutation, thus lacking skill, don't win. And the trophy? the trophy is not OLED TV's, Buggatti cars, Yaughts and palatial estates, dinners with celebrities ... fortune providing eases of living - in fact, no "eases" even short of that illustrious list of aspiration is part of the trophy - not to nature. In nature, the trophy is the ability to have sex with the best possible partner and give birth to the healthiest possible children, that in turn will carry on the lineage of those competition (and chance) refined genetics. The children of that union thus possess greater and greater prospects to achieve the same... Many generations later, the species has improved. This is why we necessarily die. That model provides we are receptacles of growing disorder that our offspring have a better chance to survive for being better equipped. However, they too are ultimately doomed to being receptacles; but their children may in turn be better suited ...and on and so on. Evolution is kind of an eerily genius adaptation to fend off entropy eventually eroding at a system to the point of demise. See the paradox? Where I am going is, "eases of living" intrinsically lowers the competition ( or necessity for the arrival of favorable mutation) stresses that perfect the system. Attempting to perpetuate the intrinsic vitality of any species, while lowering challenges spanning successive generation, smacks like physically impossible due to the ever growing quotient of disorder; there are no longer needs to improve via adaptation. This is why species - probably - fail once they get to some ceiling of achievements along their legacy, whence feedback lessens returns. That science fiction novel is easy to write. They end up in a figurative cul-de-sac of immensely powerful technological capacity but oops... the Idiocrasy has slipped below the necessary intelligence to responsibly serve as custodian and operator. But... any such Fermi Paradox explanation needs to apply universally. The above essay might intuitively fit humanity. Based upon all available evidence, that is. Perhaps some other species has evolved the "genetics" - if their life form even uses genetics as wee know it ... - to always be compensating for lessening returns ( which otherwise leads to a build up in critical entropy). At least in our case, that's not possible though. But the aliens abroad contend(ed) with entropy - that much of this is universally unavoidable. Every aspect of biology in any living organism serves a purpose. Evolution provided that. Fits the biological model that living systems do not sustain cells and organs, etc, that are no longer being used. Everything in an organism is necessary. For earth biology, as far as we can assume human kind being a part ... intelligence was an emergent property of all that. In our case, absolutely necessary for our rise out of obscurity. So, if the 'state of provision' and eases of living get in the way of needed intelligence, where does the intelligence go? Just the last 20 years of recent modernity's surplus in 'how-to' and/or what-you-need-to-know at finger tips with nearly zero challenges, has managed to en masse vote a convicted criminal, harboring a dark triad narcissistic personality disorder ... into a position of self-fulfilling power.
  3. Highly meridianal pattern not being handled well with little in the way of continuity in any guidance
  4. Yeeeeah, put another way even simpler… As long as the climate curve is pointed up that intrinsically favors warmer than normal at all times. And so without any contravening indicator that are sufficiently loud even reasonable… they’re probably just gonna operate on that former basis
  5. https://www.instagram.com/p/DP7WF2EE2Tz/?igsh=aDlqZ3hmMjNxdzRx
  6. Seeing as some of you spend a lot of time engaged in the ongoing monitoring/analysis and application of ENSO this that and the other ... this and studies like this may be of interest to y'all https://phys.org/news/2025-10-climate-whiplash-effects-due-rapidly.html ( forward, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-64619-0 ) ...In the case of this study above, immediately "precipitates" ( haha) the implication of losing predictive skill - particularly in deference to long lead seasonal outlooks where ENSO is factored, it really severely hinders that usefulness.
  7. It depends what is meant by the bold ( for me - ) Snow advances ... that's just seasonally unavoidable. But, not all years observe this normalcy the same way. They all tend ( or used to before perhaps 25 years ago), end up around the same cryospheric state by mid Februaries ... but the autumnal d(cryo)/dt (speed of recovery) I have found is more correlated to ensuing winter temperature biases over Canada ( and by circumstance of proximity ... affecting the U.S.) Faster tended to be colder Mt-WI-NY-NS Slower tended to be more variable .. ( don't wanna say "warm" here because that word is very relative circa Jan 25th at Tower Minnesota) So stating the obvious... cold is intrinsic to snow. Gee ya think- But what's interesting about this is that the correlation has been not as good over the last decade ... It's complex, but I suspect the warming polar summer states are setting up favorable frameworks more abruptly during recovery times - going for deeper lows to any snow at all... so it's artificially ( so to speak...) lending to impressive d(cryo)/dt. ... Like everything being effected by the CC one-eyed monster, the predictability of any domain in question tends to be the first aspects to get f'ed. So the simplest version of all this, yes the d(cryo)/dt is impressive, this year, but - for me - it could be construed as more impressive in say, 1995 than it really is in 2025. *But* ( ... to add even more to this "popcycle" headache - ), it's not just the land snow. I noticed, back mid to late August that that the rate of sea-ice loss was slowing more so than the last several years, relative to dates... That was unexpected, particularly when we just came off the 2023 oceanic jacuzzi historic year so recently. Interesting... Anyway, the seasonal nadir appeared to also happen about 10 days to 2 weeks earlier than the last several years ( using Climate Reanalyzer), and has shown also that seasonal recovery behaves to do so more meaningfully, sooner and perhaps faster. This below is an example of how the scalar value, still being low, belies the character/behavior of the system, which is perhaps better exposed by evaluating the deltas. So adding all this to the other aspects farther above ... mmm, I'm at least curious if the wholesale hemisphere is hinting here.
  8. Not to toot horns or anything but ... I remember posting back in spring that I thought this season would be challenged. The reasoning cited was because of the - wait for it! - expanded HC phenomenon. Not just endemic to this season ... it's all summers going forward until the phenomenon historically reverses - when humanity goes extinct and is no longer terraforming the world ... but that's another debate altogether. I think we can still get the higher end predictive quotas... but TC life behaviors are that they tend to spin up faster, and can reach big intensity, but also don't last as long because of what's going on in the paragraph below... See ... ( just in case one person is actually interested - ), an expanded HC is not a stronger HC. It is a weaker one. The more it expands, the less identity it has as an actual circulation. It starts to fracture... More trough meanders and TUTT riddled. This both lowers the probability that an MDR transport makes it that far before encountering either a polarward steering interference, or an enhanced shear. Looking back at this season and well ... it seems pretty clear that both those circumstances were observed as being particularly interfering. Maybe I just got lucky with this overall idea? but I don't think so.
  9. https://phys.org/news/2025-10-seas-cities-coastal-crisis-china.html
  10. yeah no that's the one. 2010... meh, 2013 .. 2010 ...it's all one big blur
  11. We had a weird Nor'easter coastal in that era ... 2013 or so, whence NE Ma and SE Nh suffered a tropospheric fold event ... unusual because that typically happens on the SW/underside where the stinger is identified on sat and rad. This was in the CCB tube; there were like 70 mph wind gusts doing a lot of power line and tree pruning work .... it was all rain tho. Late February too - man... a CCB with a tropospheric fold embedded - magine if that were snow? heh, probably couldn't
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