Typhoon Tip

I've seen this so many times this spring into early summer, this tendency for front side cirrus/cloud debris to erode back west, as the total miasma is attempting to move in from the eastern Lakes/N OV. We steal front side decent days and I suspect some QPF error occurring because this drying may not be well handled - speculation on that idea. In any case, it's endemic of some sort of vestigial if not outright troughing in the Maritime of Canada. I say "vestigial" because it's not abundantly clear why that is doing that. So perhaps something lingers that's less coherent. The NAO is actually neutral when this has been happen - either way... not obviously negative in the charts, either. It's like there's some sort of hybrid or very week -NAO that is below the threshold of numerical detection in the EOF. Tempted to say "non-linearity" ... that's when there emergent forcing where the why-for isn't very readily - if at all - coherent to the observer. Complex. Meanwhile, W and NW Europe is being punished and persecuted by a Hadean heat wave after heat wave. In classical telecon methodology/correlative spatial relationship ... western Europe is positive correlated to eastern N/A mid latitudes. This has been failing miserably. This isn't first spring and summer over the recent 10 years whence I observed this apparent statistical oddity. I dunno... maybe it's a related thing. Maybe something of a local decadal odd-ball fractal. But we're supposed to be hotter than we have been.

Signals getting stronger for a significant heat dome D8-11

Lot of crispy tcu going up. Can see your anvil bombs on the N-NW horizon. Fun day

It's interesting how that thing's changed over the week running up to it ... It was originally sort of weird quick coastal ( that looked dubious, admittedly), replete with a burst of NE flow and drilling rains ... Probably 60 F tops. Now, it's more like it's just a humid disjointed morass with less structure overall.

Euro's been more and more leaning away from a strata rain look toward something more convectively distributed later Monday afternoon. That tells me that's capitulating over time and model runs, slowly toward less of synoptic forcing scenario - though some would likely remain/still be present with that. The NAM's most recent run could be N-W bias overall ... a failing not uncommon to that model as I've said 327 times over the last 20 years, and it gets conveniently forgotten when it is the only model showing a snow strike in an otherwise suppressed consensus. Anyway, that 06z NAM solution tries to warm sector SNE which strands the region on dry ground because the impetus for raining at all has always been PWAT flop over the antecedent cool/dry air in place type of deal. If we warm wedge...that shuts off that mechanism. The "cool" front then limps through with limited fan fair because mechanics are too weak. wah waahhh. GFS still offers the overrunning general wet hope ... albeit light. One aspect consistent with all guidance is that there is a PWAT anomaly being either pressed up against, or succeeding in overrunning ... that offers a higher mesoscale error in QPF because the convection uncertainty/placement. Expecting some variability in results. Spectacular early summer weather Tuesday afternoon - Thurs. Bit of heat signal still looms ~29 - 3rd, and actually has become more significantly suggested in the numerical values of the telecon from all three sources. However, the spatial/synoptic manifestation of that is still ( if ever ...) middling impression. Euro wants to be west enough that we never taste it here.

Like the 06z NAM ?

man, that's a o.d. of Clonazepam suite of models and indices.

Yeah the GFS is suppressing things. Euro looks like a sneaky small stream responder problem event there.

Line came thru here about 10 min ago ...now light rain entrails. Had a few minutes of 35 mph gusts under a gnarly looking shelf base, then 10 minute of moderate to heavy rain. Not a single lightning flash. Not a single rumble of thunder. Not even in the distance.

Dangerous heat signal on this Euro run... GFS not as aggressive but hints. Granted these are around the 1st of July, so it may just be eye candy for heat enthusiasts

Just got my 80 ... 80/67 rustling breeze with cracker alto strata and a few scud shred moving swiftly underneath. Intervals of sun. Actually feels like an tropical island morning.

This could be fun... we clearly have a warm frontal thrust/wedge now up to EEN and we're opening the skies to sun. Temp popped 4-6F in the last hr west of ORH up through FIT and across my region. 79/67

yeah SPC mentioned 'low top' in their coverage. I suspect they went tor out of respect for the llv jet in the area.

Decent destabilization going on ... 77 to 80 suddenly with 66 dps. Sun splashing and a nice llv S jet wobbling the trees. any thunderstorms rollin into this will be set up with +helicity

T-watch Envious threat primarily N of Weatherwiz