Typhoon Tip

It seems like as the curve of GW continues to rise, we get these freak cold excursions occurring later and later. I wonder if we'll get a late April thru early June 82-91 freak early summer some year, followed by a single afternoon of snow chances on Stratton Mountain Resort - Summit 3875' | 2025-05-22 07:37:20 PM ....on actual June 21st

That cold pop over the weekend is weird. That's like enclosing a -3 or deeper SD cold anomaly inside the size of a standard hurricane's πr² And moving fast ... in and out in a single afternoon. The other thing that's weird is that seldom do we observe a surface low develop over N Ontario and dive along a 170 deg azimuth to the NH Seacoast like that. It's ultimately not a big deal - yeah yeah it may cat paw at midriff terrain and non-stick snow on some summits for a coffee break, but that' hardly noteworthy. It's an under the radar highly unusual event if it goes down the way the guidance sets at this time. I still wonder if we aren't going to see a short term normalization of some of these aspects tho. We'll see.

I'm kinda looking for a "new" type of spring and summer heat that's been papered. "heat excursions" at higher latitudes have become a coherent/reproducible aspect of CC. That period of time suspiciously looks like an opportunity for one of those ridge nodal resonant features. UK is experiencing one now. And just like them, this one was not very well modeled either. They may be more sussed out by telecon trends - the old institutional way to 'sense' or see storms or warmth or cold etc.. at extended leads, because ( my conjecture) is that they are emerging within regions where the non-linear wave function is supplying - hence the "invisible" - a constructive feedback. The UK heat of these recent days didn't really show up in the guidance until 120 hours out. That's awesome in 1988, but 2026 ... mm, lukewarm skill. . It's anomaly distribution has been extreme, relative to date. Uuuusually bigger anomalous in the physics materialize early in the linearity of the guidance, and have a way of sticking around from a longer lead... Sandy showed up 13 days out. So did the 1993 so called super storm. There are other examples. These heat nodes at higher latitudes are an increasing global phenomenon, and the linear day-to-day logistics of events in the models are not seeing them like other events. There was a whopper in Siberia either last year or the previous ... The Pacific NW, 2020... there's a huge list. They are proportional in SD to non-heat-related bigs, but with historic heat... not storms, thus less well seen ahead of time. And have been surging in occurrence in the last 20 years. The fact that this heat over in the UK might have been been merely suggested, but then went kind of bonkers is a smoking gun attribution deal. The PNA dips to -1 for 3 or 4 days between June 6-ish and 10-like, while the EPO does a weird 3-day dive to -2 SD, all the while the NAO is positive. Every so often the operational runs do like that 18z yesterday... then of course fade. Seems like there's a region where the non-linear ( "tendencies" is the best way to describe that - I've called that correction vectoring in the past) forcing occurs in a domain from say IA-ME. It's unfortunately not a linear weather forecast, because it can't be. I'm probably over-explaining it. Simply put, we have to sense where these tendency fields are, and then watch for the models to avail.

Having married into a sub-Saharan genealogy that's about as close to living with heat as you really want to go, huh lol

Gettin there … tryin. i’m telling you there’s a heat signal there between 6th and 10th of June for somebody. Models are definitely being forced to hide it

I recall the 'omega' or omega quasi loading in the models going back 10 days though. The European heatwave,..not so much.

Right now is pretty close to flawless. If we were to break top 10ing down to the hour, this is a top 1 or 2 hour out of the year right now as we type and read.

77

74 here ... low was 51.

Discrete level synoptic observations re the late week/weekend thing This isn't the same or a very good analog in terms of behavior, nor anomaly intensity as 1977 May. Behaviorally, it's moving much faster comparing the present multi-model handling to back whence. It also appears to be shrinking in the cold anomalous depth as it is coming S. 1977 deepened some do to cyclogen height falls/feed-backs. Circumstantially, It's also not teleconnecting the same when considering the broader hemispheric mass-fields.

Didn't this happen last week? 80 to 90, Mon-Wed, followed by a piece of shit weekend? huh

all the way to 78 here in Ayer. wow. That 77 next door in KFIT's a pretty big MOS bust

I love that when that happens. We're suddenly alleviated here in the last hour. Steady morning rains bangin' away at the awnings had become sort of hypnotic. Somewhere between that state and a sun burst just splashed through the windows me must of finally escaped - or begun the break out process.

except that the trees will be dripping through 4 pm LOL