Typhoon Tip

Heh ... the suppression hasn't been an end to end issue on the guidance. It's really only 2.5 ... 3 days of it, roughly 23-26. just sayn'

Has a typical south icing event climatology look to me... that is how they get their winter down there - arctic outbreak then overrunning gets going. It happens that way, but if the model's too aggressive with the cold loading et al the overrunning and wave transit latitude could be higher. Sure.

the differences are really easy to detect in the mid range. the AI versions have less cold exertion (less deep layer total mechanics therein), such that a vague S/stream wash runs up farther N as a wave/series/overrunning around the 25th. the standard versions preclude that from taking place because as they depict, an overbearing polar-arctic branch jams a confluence to an usually deep latitude across the conus ... utterly suppressive. Which is right? the AIs would get cold but seasonally so, then a durational ( which is hard to do in a fast footprint but given the flow orientation, about the only way to do it is this shallow azimuth rise coming E) multi regional winter event. the standard versions would plummet the NP/Lakes, with an somewhat attenuated eventual arrival here, but dry.

so, still haven't formulated an opinion of these AI tools ... but, if the assertion of superiority in that extended range is true this actually lands ideally in the best time

best spatial-temporal window is still 29/30/01 ... but the PNA moves positive from the 24th - roughly GHD

vaguely defined deform band right over me down to W side of ORH is actually snowing pretty good with pour growth mini aggs

Hopefully this happens barely 3 days after the deepest season defining arctic nadir pattern...

this morning's band down there was supposed to be roughly SE NY to SE NH ... it's been in the models, even as near as yesterday. It seems to be situated a considerable error from where it was modeled to be, certainly for just 24 hours - little leery of this being an omen for all this business ending up SE. at this point i have issue fatigue with this event. almost suffice it is to say that i just give a shit what it does anymore. hahaha. no but i think even a 3 or 4" thing is still a relative win - obviously being that it is not a complete whiff, and it would pull those ai solutions back to reality. kind of a compromise we'll see

that was supposed to be roughly SE NY to SE NH ... it's been in the models, even as near as yesterday. It seems to be situated a considerable error from where it was modeled to be, certainly for just 24 hours - little leery of this being an omen for all this business ending up SE. i don't. at this point i have issue fatigue with this event. almost suffice it is to say that i just give a shit what it does anymore. hahaha. no but i think even a 3 or 4" thing is still a relative win - obviously being that it is not a complete whiff, and it would pull those ai solutions back to reality. kind of a compromise we'll see

yeah, Vortex95 mentioned that earlier… I asked if that had any norlun signature in the sounding to it … Not an exact match, but did kind of look that way. No answer, but I haven’t gone to look myself.

I’ve seen that before… That’s 2 to 3” Then, if you get five on top of that boom, you’ve got a warning 8 inches in 24 hours I think that’s the rule don’t quote me

It’s interesting that the NAM blossom’s little region of pre snows… The mechanics are very similar to what happened today actually… then the system comes up underneath and just melds right into that

NAM was west of 18z

That’s a good description for what we had today. The particles falling really really slow. Even the big ones floating. Yet I get out there and it was like the best snowball fight snow ever.

You’re not wrong about that…