Typhoon Tip

holy shizboom

short duration on the T side, huh MAV is 89/62 -like on the 06z tomorrow.

Yeah ... agreed. And the period since 1917? it so vastly dwarfs the 1850 to 1917 interval, the period after is too gorgeously obvious (and probably damning implication) to ignore. The point there is that something ( to remain nameless...) enormous must not just be forcing, but doing so massively. In geological time framing ( no less...), to impose that much acceleration, changing of the previous (1850) dynamic state at a planetary scale - You know, I keep coming back to this notion that humanity isn't terrified by this because it's so huge they can't dimensionalize the monster - so to speak. It is not helping that as a species, we are too constrained to what threats we can readily see, hear, taste, tough, and smell. If it is not directly perceivable we seem to evade detection of what we don't want to. I don't know if the person you're talking to is doing this, per se...just sayn'. We need to see an actual fire wall coming over the horizon, else it's like being scared in a movie theater. It becomes ephemeral. All one needs to do (or perhaps "gets" to do - ) is leave the theater. The horror story stops. No longer real. Insidiously oblivious peril.

...a notion sullied interminably more creepy if he were say ... publishing rancid bum porn and Klondike bar was gettin busy with that, too huh

Out of left field model observation: I wonder if there's a warm burst (record?) cooking up in the models up there in Alaska around the 16th

Nearly missing an intense heat burst through the center of the CONUS as we watch it get deflected underneath. Not sure I'd celebrate that... not yet anywho - It's likely to go down that way. However, there's still some potential for a warmer correction N-NE; that the models may be too suppressed. The NAO was western limb orient/negative; so, a summer polar branch, albeit seasonally weak, being S in Canada made sense while that was taking place. The NAO is in a state of transitioning into a positive mode, though. The canonical expectation is that heights should rise and the flow becoming more zonal across SE Canada. It's unclear if the guidance et al are handling that in the 120 range. A tendency to hang too much suppression over the top of that "heat dome" expression cannot yet be ruled out. [edit, there's actually two pulses... 100 thru 120 ...then again out around D9/10; which could all merge - again - if there's any correcting] As far as the heat goes ...that looks impressive to me. 582+ hydrostats ( actual water integrated heights) means at minimum there's likely to be some massive DP ballooning S of the stationary boundary where ever that aligns. Right now it's roughly Chicago to NJ somewhere. The 850 mb index finger metric temp is 20C+ throughout, so that's likely mid 90 to 100 over 76ers. Yuck. Could be just as impressive as any heat anomaly we've seen in the CONUS this summer, despite being post solar max too. I'll tell you though ... that whole situation ... looks like a breeding ground for MCS traffic. There's QPF modeled around the Lakes ...but as it stands now, if the guidance is right about the overall synoptic structure they're likely to dive before they get this far E. Tuesday morning Quarter Backing

Seeing subtle signs of a 'back stressed' summer synopsis. Not personally ready to go 'breaking', per se. I mean solar max ends only just today. These things take time. In fact, we had cooler last month in July for a stretch. However, in the general super synoptic aspect/layout the summer polar branch of the westerlies appears to be sinking S of 50 N (~) latitude. This was not the case in July. July's cool down(s) was a pretty glaring example of cheating, a leitmotif this summer up here in the NE. This summer appeared to single out our region for repeating heat offsets - yes ...this, despite being above normal. It could have been much worse. I feel we can't go by that metric so much though, now that everything in every direction seems to sniff like Gretta-taint at this point and probably forever more... We have to judge these through a relativistic lens. Having said that, heights are also still lingering around 582 DM, a summer value by convention. Still the subtle sign is both the jet coming S a bit, but also that the next heat expansion appears situating farther S across the CONUS .. ~ 120 thru 180 or so hours. This exposes our region to more fast mid level over top flow and probably ablates heat. Also in lieu of cloud and convection traffic. Heh, like trying to set up a lemonade stand on an Interstate. Beyond that into the deeper range, general climo starts to weigh -

1.6" here looks like medium confidence for a low grade heat wave next week... Wed-Fri. 89-92/72 type

tremendous wet snow winter for upstate NY back west throughout the Lakes, and we're having a record number of STJ jacked coastals/Nor'easters of all rain. wah wah wahhh Can't keep raising the back ground then super impose a record ocean warmth and expect to keep getting timely cold. Eventually, we're getting a winter that's just too damn warm. Oh it'll snow once or twice... sure. Excluding the delusion enabler events though, p.o.s. flooder incoming?

Yeah... the synoptic forcing is weak. Hence the mere 1001 mb low. But when that's the case ( for the general readers...) that means there is less unity of physical forces occurring above and below the threshold of model grid ... the model processing only partially handles ... we end up with a dart board Subtle example of relativity ... even though the forcing/mechanics are petty, since there is nothing else to offset them, the actual rain production and impact ends up being rather high - or higher than it should be for 1001er. It also (obviously) doesn't hurt the scenario that there's a heavy PWAT in this mess. The former and this latter facets on top of each other ... viola! It was/is both difficult to pin point where, but somewhere is likely to get zonkered because the whole of it doesn't require much triggering

Does anyone know of any sources that extends the cyclone phase diagram/tech outside of just tropical applications? I am well aware of this found Bob Hart's found here, https://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ I recall seeing this method applied to other cyclone types in the past, but I'm not finding those sites. I'm just been sort of frustrated by the models insistent on sub 1000 mb low spin up over NJ, amidst 570+ thickness in all radial directions. That latter circumstance is odd. It is not the typical baroclinic model ( to some degree ) low, which is physically necessary for extratropical cyclones. You know? warm sector, cold sector, cool sector. So I'm just wondering if we're seeing some kind of a quickly evolving hybrid warm core leaning type low pressure here... It may account for the more robust solutions, if some of the thermodynamic/UVM forcing were sharing space. Regarding rainfall... we seem to be peaking PWAT against climo - which is a pretty tall order. What comes along with that is bigger rain relative indicators - synergy of sorts. Basically, it is an increased chances that locations will observe bigger results from surprising smaller reasons to do so. That's what happens in heavier moistened events; suspending a fall column through them, what reaches the ground is closer to source. etc.. So this system is slow-ish moving. A training band even in a weaker total low that (say) proves the NAM/Euro are over sensitive at "boundary of existence" - which I don't see how this thing can be a 995 mb low unless the phase might expose it has shared thermodynamic processes... - could end up being hefty anyway. EDIT: okay I did find this... same site actually. heh. It does seem there's a bit of warmer lean to this thing's profile. interesting https://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ecmwf/fcst/archive/26072800/231.html

A, wrong ... the whole region averages a multi-seasonal on-going deficit. This may be obscured by recency, but as usual in this particular social media space ...the constituency divorces that sort of longer term awareness/reality from whatever recency has done to form their immediate impression. So "need" as an objective empirical data is still there, despite that fallacy. B, correct ... 4 straight days is miserable for most sane people. Sure. However, if it is any consolation, at least "I" don't believe the blend of the available/dependable guidance really signals 4 straight days of rain. It's most likely an over billed front wall of what will likely turn out to be less, followed by unstable showery weather, but not raining all the time. It won't be sunny mind you. Per se. But it'll be gradually improving through Friday. Even if this scenarios figures out how to initially rain more than what it can ( lol ), it still likely a non-inundating decay.

What about just needing the rain ?

I'm still suspecting the whole of it has been over amped in guidance, and as we near the organized coherence might unravel ... at least some. But ultimately trimming back. how much so, heh Won't be butt hurt if that's not the case - just a suspicion in this case. Lot of tl;dr read to support why -