Typhoon Tip

The suppressed Bermuda ridge is likely to introduce some challenges if/when it is there and this affair up in the -EPO --> N/A deep SPV sets up, but excluding that for a moment.. this, to me, has fundamentally more potential for winter event genesis. oh ... it's the la-la range GEFs, but they all have this look fwiw

You were NAO'ed Heh... 'not the first time anyone was, whence seemingly waiting on the commitment by the analyst, that's when NAO fails to show up. Intention? Charlie Browning - Personally I find the NAO to be the biggest most stochastic POS voodoo index that was ever defined. The problems in using it are textured and varied. Firstly, ( I'm not intending to lecture you; I'm just raging at the moment lol) is that it is actually created by the dispersion mechanics downstream off the Pacific -N/A wholesale wave signature. [ Enter pita flop computing power here ...] and viola! the NAO emerges in the guidance... Secondly, there are two behaviors, which is a major pain in the ass. The first is the obvious: blocking, identified by the geometry of the heights up there in the NAO geographic domain space. The other form is insidiously hidden - the hemispheric logistics around the region act as though that geometric identity must be there, when one is not very obviously defined... See, this is an indirect proof that the forcing actual coming from somewhere else. Whether heights bloom within that behavior or not, that's when the EOF calculations finally give negative numerical values. Anyway, so the NAO is so badly handled ...or, so much worse so than the other indexes, because it is at the flop end of the Pacific hose, where is complexity is also then exacerbated further by interaction across the N/A continent. In fact, it's probably more useful for when it does materialize on a D10 chart up there, to just correlate it to a period of uncertainty from the Pacific -

Yeah ... true, and also, a large number of the engagers in here really probably don't have enough background if not capacity to follow along with this stuff. Have to be patient. So anyway, it's a pretty text book -EPO thrust and then 5 or so day evolution after the fact into either a quasi PNA or outrightly so ... whence the cold comes S-E the rest of the way to the coast out there. As discussed ad nauseam ...yeah it may warm up during that 5 days, but that's not the end game. In theory...heh As far as events when it gets more after that ... I dunno. Hopefully the flow doesn't end up too compressed through all that. It could just be warm, then cold then nada

what in the f* are talking about and where is this coming from

For educational use only but here is Scott's climo warm flash out ahead of the -EPO burst... Both are represented here on this D10er ... subject to change but in principle, these players are well-supported/correlated. This would only be chapter 1.... Chapter 2 probably involves this eastern ridge erosion and some sort of at least transient +PNA ... perhaps D14ish... pure speculation but is also a correlated as the extrapolation

MJO DISCUSSION • Over the past several weeks, the MJO remains weak and disorganized, with other modes of variability being the predominant drivers of convective and circulation anomalies throughout the tropics. • La Nina related ocean/atmosphere anomalies persist, but have become more confined across portions of the equatorial Pacific. • Dynamical models have been consistent in favoring little to no reemergence of coherent subseasonal activity in the coming weeks, with large ensemble spread covering various phases in RMM space. • If any renewed MJO activity were to occur later in January, the western Pacific appears most likely based on upper-level velocity potential and lower level zonal wind anomaly forecasts. • The precipitation and tropical cyclone formation outlook relies mostly on the La Nina background state, model guidance and climatology, where additional tropical cyclogenesis is favored across the southern Indian Ocean and South Pacific. I find the bold intriguing. It insinuates the hemisphere is at present rather decoupled from the ENSO state. It matters to me ...because a lot of my own ideas for the late winter period were based upon more -ENSO contribution/correlation with other notable warm springs in the past; then combining with that the recent decadal observation of increasing pattern meanders associated with CC ... the dice seemed weighted toward warmer. If the -ENSO is struggling to couple to the pattern(s), it's unclear how long that would be the case for one...but suppose it persisted in the challenged state, that would have to be considered.

It's not an outright prerequisite but I like your overall approach here... What it does is changes the species. You go from Miller-A atmospheres to NJ Model Lows, which these latter kind "could be" considered Miller-B but they are not necessarily so. Either way, NJ Model low or Miller-B stressed and shredded... they move right along. The problem with Miller-B's in a fast atmosphere, the translation of the entire wave space moves along too fast and the "transfer" ( which is bs ..it's not a transfer in reality ) isn't given enough time for the new low to affect before it's expelled along the flow. Also, the speed doesn't allow the jet cross-sections to set up as proficiently either, and that offset the integrity of the new low that way. So both end up looking more sheary and shreddy and the Miller-B is challenged. NJ Model lows are systems where despite the fast flow enough amplitude occurs back west far enough to activate cyclogenesis nearing the coast... say over ~ WV ...When the nose of the jet/diffluence aloft approaches the natively intense thermal packing/+Baroclinicity near the Del Marva, a low detonates very quickly.. Sometimes bombing as she blossom out just under L.I. These clip the I-95 corridor from perhaps PHL on up to PWM. Albany may have dim sun while HFD-BOS has a 3 hour pulse of S+ with lightning and thunder. The best version of these were back in 1980s, then again around 1996. But they move really quick. 6 to 9 hours tops usually for totality.

I see. yeah ... I also agree. We're "suffering" ( some don't, ooh rah heros ) early sunsets and cold hands, it would be at least more tolerable if there were interesting things to study coming through. The see-thru 2 inches of cobwebs isn't really providing that education. Ha. I for one am looking forward to this very significant change that's coming. For one, it's the first course work being that it is a new paradigm, and it satisfies some lust for discovery/something new ... And I do like the odds better in this new paradigm then that Pac N. -WPO hybrid dildo thing. That was driving the midriff ridge over the continent by extention/transitive wave mechanics ...so seeing that motherfucker leave means we clear the air and make way for ...at least different probabilities. I don't care if they are warm or cold, btw. But I am empathic to the notion that most in here do care. In this case, yeah ... your bold. I'm like people, cheer up!

mm the public won't see it that way. See, we have a unique perspective - in the sense that we represent the .00034% of the total mass intelligentsia in the matter, and will know what "really" transpired. Those "idiots" as you say? They are actually both on the meme creating stage, and are their audience - both sides en masse. That's a different dynamic than you and I. That's why Joe B. still had a following ... maybe not as big - but probably just because popularity tends to have a shelf-life for other reasons ...whatever. So, what is invariably going to happen is the new -EPO paradigm will come in, and then the hemisphere chooses the faster cold relay route, and this will genesize a storm for other reasons sometimes around the 10-11-12 period that is grandiose enough to fuel the limited objective opinion engine of their constituencies - meme creator gets all the credit and are geniuses. While we are interminably annoyed - This is a bit of broader perspective with some tongue-n-cheek cynicism intended. What Brian just said below is also a part of all this ...

I gotta warn y'all ... if this new paradigm as I just described to Brian, and is materialized with vivid coherence in all ensemble means, ends up as persistent as the previous N. Pacific ~ 4 week resonance we could end up observing some sort of partial or more analog to other notable -EPO --> +PNA hemispheres of the past.

Nah the difference is that stubborn Date Line-ish -WPO hybrid stuck anomaly of the last 4 weeks is finally collapsing I explained all this yesterday, and at the risk of sounding like a dick ... it's right. When that leaves, the hemisphere is/was open in the guidance to establish a new "anchor" pattern - however transient or perm, notwithstanding. For awhile ...it appeared the +PNA might emerge, but then over 2 days ... that redrafted into this bono fide -EPO we see in all ens systems. Vivid coherence, too. I agree with Scott, that implies a warm up ... purely from climate inference. The magnitude of which, notwithstanding either. They can sometimes not manifest much N of 40 N ..for other popsicle headaches. Sometimes they crazy and the polar boundary gets sucked back to Chicago and it's 62 degrees here. However, highly correlated is a time lagged event whence cold starts to load into and eventually overcoming (or reinforcing either way) the native N/A circulation mode. This induces a +PNA 'drag' on the pattern, which then that takes over. I've seen this all take anywhere from 3 to 10+ days for the wholesale evolution to complete. Sometimes it is not a one and done wholesale show. 2015 was an extreme example of the -EPO --> +PNA relay, where it was pulsating. The EPO was negative for several weeks, and would dive additional 1.5 SD relative to the longer term bias; then recover, while the PNA would obey this time-lag and rise ...when it did, Logan put another 2 bits in the seasonal till. It was a perfect cold loader machinery at large synoptic scales. Other times it is all a more tepid and nuanced tale. Magnitude matters. I've seen these attempt in early April and it doesn't work out to well because the sun's annihilating the lower troposphere by then. etc.

I was actually referring to KDX Ken‘s post about the warm EPS

Seems like we went through this about two weeks before Christmas… Back then the models were abandoning winter. In this case… the ensemble means are not exactly abandoning any winter Could have a warm period out there as was probably going to be with a negative EPO beginning to set up… But it would be transient under those circumstances

The GEFs version above looks like a bit of an undercutting/split flow...