Typhoon Tip

This is an 'Andy Rooney': Not sure what the preoccupation for defining the culpability pie slices is all about in baking the end of the world. It's also perfunctory that nature provides cataclysms - yeah. okay. 'why are you telling us this' like it's novel? It seems attempting to dole out blame as being less because of anthropomorphic forcing is like seeking permission to keep doing it. The role of humanity is actively problematic to the world. That still exists, either way. - as an aside... there is an apparent lack of applied physical science backgrounds that echoes in the way voices are sounding off. It's coming across as regurgitated skepticism from other sources, those that push backs against human caused environmental urgency in a way that is fairly obviously rooted in agenda, at best sketchy motivated - Increasing melt water destabilizes land... that's just perfunctory. All this stuff about needing research isn't actually necessary because of that factored reality; that is already known. The amount of x-y-z should be less meaningful if you helped the killer aim the gun. Your contribution is not 0. At some point, that which is known needs to be applied as a common sense approach - otherwise you're waiting around to reinvent the wheel every time you have to jump in the care to go for a ride. You're not doing that - right? No need to prove melt water, plied to a bedrock - when it was visibly doing so - is going to cause a reaction. It's also a bad term, bed'rock' - when the generic ear hears bedrock ... they hear rock. Like a solid impenetrable igneous or granite-like substance. It's more like compact sedimentary deposits covered over by other regolith-ice composites that were the destabilizing aspects. Also, cracking deeper is perfunctory in repeating thaw and freezes, an oscillation of phase change forces that have been incurring with greater frequency over recent decades. All of this is not debatable. And as that has occurred post antecedent and ongoing concurrent warmer than normal setting that is heavily correlated already to CC breaching the high country up there... I don't believe your going to get a really 'in depth' report any more than than you would over whether wheels are round. stop this. Again, what is the purpose... this latter aspect is still happening, and since the variable cites fit it 100%, there's no use - humanity does not escape culpability.

Of course it did there was never any debate by anyone not either deluded or immoral - pick

Yet KFIT was 57 on the low ( +6 ), and 73 on the high (-1 ), for a net diurnal +2.5 (any rounding trickery notwithstanding) The Thornburgh effect - ...we'll see what happens before midnight for the low T but ... heh, see how CC works class ? you're only programmed to think this is below normal

Folks would be wise to architect winter expectations around higher than normal precipitation, only. Leave snow out of it. Too many reasons to go liquid rather than frozen.

It's interesting that while this is observably weighted E ... the 3.4 is historically high.

"Global warming doesn’t cause bedrock to buckle...." whaaaat, um, no. I mean I realize you're asking Don but I could help my self. Just in brief and off the top of the head, there are three easy aspects in how CC may both directly and indirectly factor. 1, glacial rebound. 2, liquid water fluxing 3, bedrock? With rebound, that happens because if land spends multiple multiple Millennia in a stable/colder climate regime, the ice accumulation weighs down. This gravitational anomaly supplies a constant pressure downward into the undergirding and surrounding bedrock. Over time ...succumbs by sinking. Remove the ice, the land may rebound... upward. And it doesn't do so according to any necessary ease. It tends to do so in jolts felt as tremors. With increasing melt ( liquid flux) the basal water may enter ground; in CC, the warming summer means this quantity is rising. Over decades, repetitious freezing and thawing literally cracks the Earth due to phase change expansion(contraction). How much so notwithstanding. But this is a weakening implication in the integrity of the supporting geology beneath the overriding ice - failure ( land slide) results. These two also work together. In fact, #2 actually happens first, then... #1 tremor triggers the landslide. Whether these factors were in play in the higher terrain/alpine region of Nepal, I am not claiming so.. But Mr Martz makes a blanket all preclusive statement that is epistemically false. Beyond these two, the third relates to, what officiating/reviewed source said or analyzed and proved that "bedrock" indeed failed? It is possible that the undergirding was actually a strata of compressed glacial deposits mixed with icy compressed rubble. An avalanche was inevitable - probably so, anyway, but if this was the type of supporting foundation beneath the overcasting of ice weight ( which itself was calving the leading segments), then the whole structure probably would not need to wait for the geological time for #1 and #2 to work together.

Slowly turnin' the fire up under the toads

looks like an April -NAO retrograde jet coming from the NE too

Definitely the rub ... whether ENSO is related or not, that 'bleeding into AK' is often a torpedo, and it's useful to note too because the model handling of the GOA is idiosyncratic; it's positive or negative interference in the actual state sends mid and extended range error. Smaller GOA errors in position seems toward a higher sensitive and a larger total response in whether cold conveyors orient more S or ... more importantly for cold/winter enthusiasts, deflects more E across the Canadian northern tier - regardless of CPF of or not. The latter aspect of La Nina hangover episodes is interesting, though. The whole RONI aspect is also relevant here.

To imagine that careening into the STJ over Texas, huh ho man

Not part of the conversation's immediate history here but... the EPO and PNA can sometimes be in the -EPO/+PNA tandem. When extreme enough, and fully physically realized on the actual hemispheric synoptic layout out, this results in the "cross polar flow" type. This is synonymous with a deep layer cold conveyor that patterns from Siberia, across the (pre-CC explosion era) frozen expanse Arctic Ocean, down over and usually E of the Canadian Rockies ... into the NP and ultimately frosting oranges in Florida. It's important to context that the longer term moment correlation between these indices is actually modestly positive. So having a tandem -EPO/+PNA should be rarer than the means, and well ... we don't actually observe a bona fide Cross Polar Flow set up so often and there we go... As an aside, when time lags are applied to the indices, I'm not sure ( though suspect it is so - ) if there is a better negative correlation that is exposed. Because I have observed countless times over 30 years of this crap, a -EPO --> +PNA over an ~ 3-5 day lapse. A time in which the EPO relaxes back to neutral aft of a +d(PNA). It gives the allusion if not physical exposure of a planetary wave roll out of the N. Pacific. This is not the same as cross polar flow. More like a "relay". It's the more common type and regulates the periodicity of cold loading events into Canada. For regions between the NP/GL-NE drape, the difference between a CPF hemisphere, vs this latter delivery, is probably less than meaningfully different - both showcase someone heaving a boiling cup of water to demo saturation vapor pressure causing half of it to explode into vapor, while the other half rings to the ground like shattered stemware. Maybe the CPF is 7 deg colder in the core of the cold extreme or something but below -10 F either way, wtf cares... Just sayn' ...

(psst startin to think 'people of earth, get a new planet')

Actually yeah... can almost see a pathway to improvement - yup, right when I f'n clicked Submit Reply. Told ya The visible loop now better exposes that there are two main ceiling layers. The higher one is moving exceptionally fast for this time of year... That's another thing. wow. Perceived 'back edge' moved from near Syracuse NY at dawn, to almost Albany in 1.5 hours. Some 150 miles ? that's 100mph. That seems a bit fast for September 1? more like a flat flow in winter thing. interesting. Anyway, depending on the underwear in this scenario...as the upper peals away here over the next couple of hours we'll see how much grunge lingers frumunda -

I only glanced at the NAM so probably low scoring anyway, but the front appears behind schedule relative to what I saw. Supposed to be thru the region far enough to improve skies and elevate temperatures all the way to Logan by 2pm. Looking at morning satellite, doesn't lend much confidence of those two metrics laying into the area, huh. I'm routinely wrong in this morning arm chair analysis shit, though. I always see them pessimistically and then usually ... the moment I click 'Submit Reply' it was as though the button really said should, 'Clear skies and warm up anyway' hidden from me. So we'll see.

It seems NE of New York City this summer ... we rain just fine synoptically, as we've had three definitive events each raining pan-regionally 1.5 to 3" ( yes with some exceptions in either direction). Anything remotely related to convection has resulted in either less, or not at all...depending on one's specific location. This is just going from memory and being a weather dweeb and always paying attention to what's going on.. so, taken fwiw I have only had one direct thunderstorm at my location. It occurred when I was away on vacation. Otherwise, ...nadda. I realize this region of the continent does appear challenged for convection - certainly there is a grousing/commiserating support group mentality going on in this social media over the matter ( jesus -). But relative to our climatology, nadda is an exceptionally low result even for SNE summer - both by numbers and anecdotally. I can honestly say, I've never seen that in the 45 years I've been a New Englander. I actually have a high confidence understanding as to why this took place, but if the orbit of the moon is the extent of the average reader's attention span or even will to use the energy to read in here, the former explanation unfortunately requires the orbit of Pluto ... so -