Typhoon Tip

It's not really noise though if one can identify the cause of the differences... Not meaning to be priggish ...just that it seems pretty clear - to me - that if the smear cross Cuba and gets pulled in en masse like the Euro, it's getting a huge physical feedback from that. I think Scott mentioned feedback yesterday - no arg there but 16 dm of?! "Noise" seems like a spray of offsetting probabilities... Well, this explains where. The GFS is less proficient with that infusion... The Euro, more. Results follow - But I agree, higher resolution is worth wondering -

Makes sense ... I was attempting to be in the water near the end of July up near Rye Beach/NH coast, and the 57ness of it was too much for the balls to handle... Couldn't really go in deeper than knees. 3 years ago around that same time I was there, and the 73 F water was warm enough that we were able to spend over an hour on boogie boards with no wet suits... Granted, this was an excessive warm anomaly for that area. Now, this is just one bloke's take on it, but I do check the summer progression of SST around here as a matter of course. And world over for that matter. As an ongoing observation I was never very impressed with the buoy numbers this summer. Seemed this was a regression year for local SSTs ... whether normal or not, notwithstanding. Just less in the way of residual heat to keep things elevated into autumn?

There's some sensitivity to deterministic solutions coming from the amount of positive vorticity ( how much?) getting pulled out of the Caribbean and injected between 42 and 90+ hours or so. This window of interaction is being slightly differently handled in the Euro vs GFS. The Euro is sweaty love-making. The GFS isn't sure what its feelings are ..heh Recent Euro runs are quite proficient/bullish with the result, because it is massively infusing this junk/failed zygote tropical entity into the agglomeration of weak S/W aspect that is wobbling through that lat/lon of the MA by the end of that time range. This transition of annotated charts over the course shows what happens when even weak N stream gets injected with a pithy diabatic heat source... The GFS is occasionally not as proficient with/in the integrating idea. The Euro has been rather persistent in forecasting a proficient phase at a range when modeling et al typically has higher average error when handling delicate matters. I took a look at the ensemble means of both ... it appears the idea of vestigial tropical infusion and subsequent unusual feedback due to that source is what I was personally missing yesterday in my analysis at that time. That does not mean it will happen like the Euro, per se... the 00z GGEM was less, as was the 06 GFS... We'll pick and choose ( ha, I can imagine which this particular group will pick!). But there's enough support from the orbit of the ens means of both camps to suggest a Euro idea isn't impossible. It is, however, one of the stronger members out of the whole EPS cluster, whereas the GFS is in the apparent interquartile mean of its own group. This is why suggest the scenario is a bit touchy. Smaller percentages less of the lower latitude diabatic source-inclusion into the holistic set up... will probably manifest something more like the a flatter/weaker less entertaining surface result. For now ..I'm willing to go less than the Euro's bigger dawg with this thing, but give it a nod should we get into a better deterministic range and the other models start getting more proficient/synergistic like that.

It seems unification has taken a backseat to 'quantum gravity'. It may be that in efforts to unify the 4 forces ...they keep running into a mathematical wall they can't get over because they've slaved the logic to (inevitably) needing to Quantize gravity - which I wonder if that can be done. But again, I don't believe that is possible in 'this' universe. Paraphrasing before ... gravity may have a field equation/origin that is different from its force - 'why' the force emerges. My conjecture is a Plank scale "pixerlarium" flow of information density. Analogous to how electrical flow produces a corresponding magnetic field - as an oddly useful analog. The former form ... it's not electrons, however. It's "bytes" of "god code" Only the gravity field is a monopole ... whereas magnetic monopoles have not yet been conclusively observed in nature. One creepy idea I was dancing with is that it is dipolar but the other side is "on the other side" It's kind of like starting out with a goal that would eventually require quantum gravity. Why not? every metric in physical math is quantum or can be quantized. But, my conjecture is that Einsteinian/GTR emerges out of Quantum Mechanics - trying to reconcile the math in either direction would then become a universal, improper epistemic direction. Another way to describe "synergistic heredity" is a "grand projector theory" Imagine the analog, a reel-to-reel cinema machine humming away... The gears inside are the plank mechanics, the lens is the quantum mechanical 'event horizon' and the the screen is the result. Machine --> Lens --> Reality. We are the far right. GTR is the mathematics of the far right result. Not the source. I don't believe Quantum Mechanics is the source, either. Again, the pixelarium is where the discussion begins in this holistic idea. Hint hint... a black hole event horizon is a boundary in which the complete reality wave function collapses - reality as we know it suffers decomposition at that boundary ... perhaps a distorted sort of "primordial" version. The "object" lurking inside is pure Plank information - if the information slows below the pixel-to-pixel 'communication' rate of one C, all heredity ceases. No reality. Not as we know it. There is no state of no pixels. The entire physical volume of the cosmos is pixels. There is no 'space in between' in that sense. More over, the most fundamental/rudimentary information level is 0 point energy. The information has a fixed transmission rater of one C at 0 point energy. Otherwise known as the vacuum energy density. 10¹⁹ KeV A pixel is equivalent to a Plank unit .. roughly 10⁻³⁵ m As we add information - the drag is gravity but what is it dragging against? the expansion of the cosmos.

Not living with cold ocean surrounding us ...

I believe that the reality we perceive is the end product of what I call 'synergistic inheritance' "plank pixels" exchange information and a byproduct of that interaction ( which takes place at C rate, never more, never less...) creates something near or perhaps substrate to the Quark spectrum ..etc. the formulation of the fundamental forces of nature takes place in this near infinitesimal scale ... whereby larger and larger constructs emerging and the Quark spectrum. we recognize (eventually) as energy and matter.

12z UKMET's your dealer if you're seeking a d-drip hit off this thing ...

Ha y'all's just got model magnified ?

Whether this is the case on January 15 ... who knows. But this is an apparent unique - perhaps historically so - state of affairs we are in heading into Autumn. When comparing other warm ENSOs that were anywhere near peers with this one, the PDO was in better agreement. Those being 1982-1983, 1997-1998 and 2015 very warm events. But, +.7 isn't 1.0 The offset .3 isn't exactly a trivial anticorrelation value. 30% of PDO/ENSOs didn't want to cooperate ( according to CDC). The qualitative difference being ... it is easier on intuition to see a weaker warm ENSO being more likely to anticorrelate - break downs in the machinery in weaker gradients..etc. However, very powerful ones would instinctively dominate the hemisphere because tall heat S abuts canonical seasonal lowering hgts N, and that's proficient coupling. That's the '82/'97/'15 events. This ENSO is (presumably) as powerful ( even in a RONI dimming consideration ... it's just too overwhelming? ) yet having this over-arcing -PDO is thus uncharted water ( pun hopefully annoying ... ) It's hard to say how that will impact the circulation 'scaffolding' of the hemisphere, should it persist. This latter bold being a key question. There is a modest pos correlation between the PDO and EPO in November, which strengthens significantly through the winter. This is intriguingly implicating for both warm and cool N/A. In a shortened planetary wave lengths, the -EPO dives the mean height anomaly distribution over the west. This correlates/teleconnects to ridging/+geopotential hgts 80W. But in the winter, when the wave lengths are necessarily long as a physical response to high seasonal velocity foot, the -EPO tends to mean the lower heights progress E fairly quickly. That's the reason -EPOs cause cold snaps. However, the STJ "should be" lurking over TX into the TV and lower MA; so what then should this mean if an ongoing -PDO/-EPO keeps sending in knuckle achers... This sort of 'unicorn' scenario has been discussed among some of us, already. It's not confident enough to predict... for one, we don't know if this -PDO/atmospheric circulation mod over the arc of the N. Pac will continue. You know, that big winter storm - the first of the two - that took place last winter is a reasonable implication/typology. That January one was a broad continental scale overrunning event really..

The ongoing -PDO is statistically quite suggestive of low coupling in a broader NINO relative hemisphere no question.

heh, as chilly as this seems ... we're actually above normal against climo with the day's lows so far. 68 to 70 is the climo max, BDL-FIT-ASH. Prooobably going to end up below that... we'll see but a sneaky effect here?

Right... I mean I just mentioned to wise-ass ( lol ) that it's not physically impossible.. I just wasn't going to get into a whole UVM 'stokes discussion about why latent heat release lowers heights ... Question is, how much and does it really drill down an anchor a surface low that the Euro's near bombogen rates needs to be 72 hours out for my taste. We'll see The other thing ... something happened about 10 or 15 years ago with modeling, et al. The general technological behavior seemed to unilaterally reverse. What used to be missed in the late mid range, suddenly became over amplified in general ongoing dependable practice. We colloquially refer to this as 'model magnification' but it's not like that's not doing that anymore. It's still a real tendency/hasn't gone away. Not having substantive S/W input into the arena, then ending up with multiple contours ... mmm sort smacks as a candidate for that oversell routine.

I know what he meant ... but in 'quantization of correctness', if one model has a single run that is correct and no other model shares in that distinction, that model is better than the other guidance. Frankly, I don't like this event for the way it is handled in the models, regardless. I won't downplay the intrigue, tho. With an at first isolated cold profile, then going hybrid core, the Euro solution appears to do a weak 'perfect storm' sort of hint there. Pretty fantastic and certainly entertaining at a minimum. But the issue I'm having is that this feed into the region is unremarkable. There seems to be some spontaneity in the behavior of lowering heights, and that's dubious in terms of handling for me. They appear to be deepening the whole construct/evolution from the non-linearity/transitive forcing - which ... is invisible by definition. Synergistic byproduct is an example of non-linearity... In this case, only having a very modest S/W (shrapnel really) moving through the S Lakes, suddenly attaining 18 dm of height implosion S of L.I. like that is a bit too much of something from nothing. So, it's not physically impossible? No. However, long years of experience with modeling, I can remember this type of modeled scenario as having higher error. The models et al are still beyond 4 days - my own confidence will slope up significantly < 4 days.

Unless it's right?

you didn't ask for this opinion but personally believe every teleconnector there is should be analyzed and reanalyzed for relative correlation. RNAO, RAO, RPNA, RWPO, REPO ... RPDO etc The implications of a -RPDO with a +RONI is then headachy different than the non-relativistic tandem -