Typhoon Tip

Climate Reanalyzer has us currently warmer than any other august, ever ... Not sure what how to reconcile these two products - I'll leave that y'all... but it looks like it confirms that idea about Aug. Not sure about 'all months' - this looks like it is 2nd in that scope. Fwiw - this product includes 1940 - 2026/present

I see the RNA related pattern S of the 45th and warm up others are eluding. It sets in for a week or so coming up, but I'd caution that the negative NAO mode is lingering over the western limb of the domain ... a bit of a wild card. Now, the NAO is not typically well-handled at this range. We've seen a lot of winter extended outlooks fail because what looked persistent in the ensembles and their derivatives sort of sneaked into something else while everyone was counting their winter dividends. Suddenly in the near term we're looking at an entirely different pattern implication while our spirit is still lubed up for the other idea... It's a heartache index - live by it, forlorn for it. Summer NAO handling in guidance is not better, that's for sure. This is sort of an opposite thing. Usually folks want for a -NAO. The present thread tenor seems people are ignoring it (or just not aware) in lieu of a rah-rah for one last gasp summer heat ( as an aside.. heat's fleeting of course - ) before we commit to a climate wake-up-call winter. LOL maybe, we'll see on the latter. anyway, proceed with caution -

You should ... ... more often than not the ensuing season inherits the wind. Sometimes not so much, true. An autumn(spring) may flip the script and do so more profoundly, yup. But there is definitely often enough a leitmotif that is subtle but there if one looks; then it amplifies into better coherence as winter(summer) approaches. 'We started getting coastals in sep that year', lends to active Xmas. 'We started seeing se ridging in latter feb that year', lends to heat in May...etc

Curious, what does Skynet think about the NAO during this time range above?

Oh god, I'm gonna catch some bun blow back for this... but in 1995, we started getting hints and starts of -NAOs in late August, that more and then less continued into the autumn ...only to finally dominate from early November on. We started getting a local SE/Can to NE gradient look as the flow was carving a trough around the -NAO bias that month... Mixy snow and sleet to 2" remained in patches dappled about the UML commons by Veterans Day, and never actually completely disappeared before it was covered over by a more substantial snow mid month... Didn't see bare ground again until the mega thaw in late mid Jan - lost a 30 inch pack down to field ponds floating confused ducks. Winter made a decent comeback in Feb, but it wasn't as good. That's not likely happening this year and isn't intended as an analog - setting the table for making a point here. digressing.. anyway, the point of this was going to be that sometimes seasonal biases have roots in the immediate preceding season. Like you start seeing the biases early, albeit too subtle to perhaps notice the preponderance setting in. Until it becomes factored, sort of unknowable... Similar subject matter, active winters with coastal frequency/events, tend to see a autumn couple of coastals ... - the table sets while no one's looking. I'm only bringing it up because there's a significant correlation between warm ENSO's and the negative NAO mode - east vs west, notwithstanding. This is particularly true/more so in Jan/Feb. But I dunno ... if this thing does do the super duper phat dope badass whatever, maybe the dominating statistic punches thru earlier?

There is a strongish -PNA bounce in the 25 thru 2nd window but it doesn't seem to wanna manifest in the daily/operational synoptics out there along the 40th parallel. There's a positive anomaly in the non-hydrostats but it's pressed down by over-activate summer version of the polar jet... like this, ...This latitude heavy jet antic has been weighting down the heat, suppressing it back SW-S now for 2 weeks and counting. Persistence seems to beget persistence. Otherwise, deep summer ended earlier than normal. Ooa Aug 10 this year for the eastern Lakes/NE region. We've seen 96 up here thru the 10 of Sep but sufficed it is to say we are on the climate slope and/so heat's rarefying. But the 'deep summer ended' isn't meant to trigger ... it's a relative aspect. We can still register above normal temperatures, and not be a part or have potential of being a part of the show. If that -NAO anchored 50/50 aspect continues there ( western limb -NAO in summer, ugh!), we're going to be cooler than the TV ...while being warmer than normal by small amounts - this latter aspect just because CC seems to baseline us to guaranteeing at least decimals on the warm side relative everything.

Left field shout in ... ... looked at some 30 NWS tweener sites on their interactive product and found just one site at 57, which is closely the climatological low for the date for the BDL-FIT-ASH arc mean, otherwise ...most were 60 to 63. Above average.

One thing that I found interesting about this summer is the lack of personal experience with actual thunderstorms. I've seen cool strata rains on 3 separate events, between 1.90 to 2.8" of total rainfall. The one thunderstorm that affected my area occurred earlier this month but I was unfortunately abroad and thus did not get to experience that. I was in Michigan that week ... a week in which it did not rain at all while I was there. I have seen lightning flickering distantly from a storm passing, only once, with distant rumbles. But that's like hearing a party you're not actually invited to. That's it. Otherwise, a so-far whole summer in a convective experience dearth. I realize this is a near hyper-localized reporting and quite likely doesn't reflect other's impressions - sometimes wholesale weather patterns seem to target one tiny region as though going after one guy's perspectives LOL

Yesterday afternoon was wonderful. Abrupt back edge clearing with drying/700 mb circulation got us to 74 with warm sun. It was a stark contrast to the morning, which was belated at 66 in murk mist ...then the downpours. But when it ended around 1 or 1:30 the day turned pleasant quite decisively, moving the grade from a complete failure to C ...C+ Saturday was dry enough in the morning for 18 holes, though overcast. Temp 69 to 71 was rather pleasant with no blazing fairways. We did get a light mist shower around 13 ... but it didn't last. I understand it was wetter south. So ... C+ for succeeding in ample outdoor time. For this region of N ma/Rt 2 it was not an inundating pour sensible weather weekend.

It’s more than that

It's interesting that recent 2ndary seasonal peaks in the tropical temperature means are now as high as the primaries were just 15 years ago... and this one appears poised to go ridic

Oh, that looks like a smoking gun for CC adaptation in that temperature outlook. Not sure ... is that a straight model to publication? - or is it modified by forecaster(s) opinion en route to the public Because it looks damn well like they took the canonical linear El Nino correlation and then just moved it warmer by a click or two. So instead of warm north cool south, you end up with very warm north and more neutral/average S. If. so... can't see I blame them. I mean, we play this head game in here as responsible weather and climate minded people, where we are not deniers about CC ... we just play some avoidance and hedge away from it meaning warmer snow challenging winters ...haha. At least a reticence to do so. Anywho they don't have that luxury. They necessarily need to be as close to accurate as they can be.

I'm getting this vibe from these outlooks that they're more interested in the N Atlantic/index correlation than the PNA to this point in time. Not sure why that lean as both it and the +PNA are at least linearly-neg correlated. The 2009/2010 season tucked a short lived but potent warm ENSO into the tail end of 2009 into the first quarter of '10. That was a winter whence the NAO became so excessive it jammed all events into the SE/MA, while up this way in NE ended up with suppression depression In a neutral ENSO year, a +PNA correlates more negatively with NAO during JAN/FEB anyway. But 2010 perhaps "over" ideally situated that result. There may have been other hemispheric things gong on that constructively interfered and drove a synergistic wild hyper response with that look that season/year. It was nuts! That one "snowmaggedon" storm looked as though it was really a hybrid between any cyclone at all, together with a mass-restoring forced nodal trough pinned there by the coupled -NAO state. fascinating. I believe at least a handful of official seasonal snow totals down there exceeded climo at sites around SNE and NNE - but not sure of that. Still, getting to within reach of N climates, in principle, evinces the point. It was like their 2015. But ...as 2015 demos... +ENSOs don't always do that. That's why I think the other was a bit of a "positive bust". It may be worth considering though that it can happen once, it can happen again. Leaning more E Can/NW Atl block with that weird neg tube of heights tunneling underneath down stream like Will was mentioning.. heh. It sort of reminds me of 'too much of a good thing' and you guys taxing the love lorn to get even more euphoric reach-arounds. For now, I guess it being so early in the game ...best to just go with +volatility for having lower heights in the TV whilst blocking resides N in the means - should that prevail. I'll tell ya though ... this will be an interesting autumn in the guidance.

I'm just speaking from a position of purer logic. If the climate is unstable, referring to it ... is riskier than if the climate is stable; specifically with regard to the climate aspect. That said, my op ed on the matter is that I simply don't believe we sustain negative anomalies in the mid latitude band like that, regardless. However, I don't have a problem with some sort of positive anomaly N though.

the s. hemisphere the tropics are lewd while the antarctic itself has a scary trend line originating over the last 1.5 months. It'll likely correct down some - we hope. The scalar value at the end of that rust curve is ~ 4th or 5th overall, to date. You don't wanna see early positive anomaly investments of that look before their annual recover is set to get going, in about a 3 weeks.