michsnowfreak

Why not a snow squall warning?

You have today and yesterday mixed up.

Not sure how long the more hostile pattern will last, but definitely dont see any pattern sustaining itself the rest of winter. One analog year that Ive not seen thrown around, but this winter is somewhat resembling so far (at least through the forecasted end of December) is 1964-65.

I frequently hear new englanders complain of the Grinch storm, a storm/temps right around Christmas that melt away a true White Christmas. We got our taste of that today. Snow has been on the ground since November 29th....but a Grinch showed up 1 week before Christmas today. Fortunately, the Christmas season is more than just the 25th, but its very impressive to see the extreme temps the CONUS has seen this month, both way below and way above avg. It bares repeating, this is a trademark of a traditional La Nina. Last year we heard that it "didnt act" like a Nina. This winter seems to be acting just like a Nina. One analog year that Ive not seen thrown around, but this winter is somewhat resembling so far (at least through the forecasted end of December) is 1964-65.

Snow has melted except some piles and patches (patches will be gone by later). First time the ground is bare since November 28th. Not a fan. But not unexpected. Fun fact...this is my 31st winter measuring snow. The season with the most days with 1"+ snowcover was 2013-14 with 96 days and the least was 2023-24 with 18 days. The average is around 50 days. So far in 2025-26, I have 21 days, meaning I surpassed 2023-24 before the Winter Solstice.

I understand theres only so much you can do with observation sites...but i feel the ultimate goal should always be having the best setup and doing it the right way. We see so much of "this station runs cold so its only fair this one runs warm"...or..."they undermeasured that snowfall so they should overmeasure this one".

Snow is beginning to melt here. Been a 3 week stretch of deep winter and while Im not looking forward to the change, Im thinking Jan-Mar will be a wild ride, as most "textbook" Ninas are. This means multiple chances for big snowstorms, arctic blasts, and torches. Im not great at indicies, but Im great at pattern recognition. With all the talk of this being a "textbook" Nina, this is what I see the next 3 months. Wouldnt surprise me if the past 3 weeks is the most sustained any pattern gets all winter.

Dont leave us gay dudes out my man! Jokes aside....theres no question that big snowstorms occur when its bitterly cold. And those are the best imo. I love the cold powder. But honestly, a traditional up and down roller coaster La Nina pattern can often produce some of the best snowstorms here. Weve had nonstop deep winter here since late November- bitter cold and constant snowcover. But no big storms. Today snowmelt is underway . With the pattern changing and deep winter taking a break, I wonder if we have a lot more fun/frustration ahead in Jan-Mar? Wouldnt surprise me if this 3 week stretch was the most sustained pattern we get all winter. La Ninas often carry the chance for multiple big snowstorms, arctic blasts, and torches. Buckle up.

They do not look like January 1990 verbatim. January 1990 was much warmer in the Northeast and midwest than today's run of the euro weeklies is for January 2026. You are essentially doing the same thing you constantly criticize JB for doing. You are taking a mild look and throwing out eye catching warm years past, despite the fact they dont match.

Theres a large pile at the mall here. That will be here all winter. But the rest, stay tuned lol.

After the holiday mild period, will be interesting to see if Jan-Feb takes on a classic nina like roller coaster pattern. With plenty of cold in Canada and plenty of warmth to the south, that may just be in the offing as we head deeper into winter.

I didnt say he isn't, just pointing that out. GHD1 was still a big storm here...it just failed to reach expectations in SE MI. Actually boggles my mind that this bust is still talked about with everything thats happened in the 15 years since. Its not like we expected 3 feet and got 0, we expected 12-18" and got 8-11" GHDII (16.7" DTW) and Jan 22 2005 (12.2") were huge storms at Detroit with plenty of arctic air around...to say nothing of the insanity of Jan 6, 2014. Following nearly 11" of snow temps dropped to -14° in hours.

White Christmas looking unlikely. Bummer, but we've had snowcover the entire Christmas season to now, so thats been nice. After the holiday mild period, will be interesting to see if Jan-Feb takes on a classic nina like roller coaster pattern. With plenty of cold in Canada and plenty of warmth to the south, that may just be in the offing as we head deeper into winter.

He doesn't consider 6-9" a big storm lol

The month will nearly certainly finish colder than avg, though the extent of the upcoming thaw (and how much of the near record warmth in the southern plains makes it north) will dictate just how much.