40/70 Benchmark

If anything, this is likely to be a case in which the ONI may peak at say 1.4, but the MEI/RONI are like 1.7. Same page.

Only caveat being that most of the big gradient seasons occured during -QBO if you look.

If anything, I think there may be less recurves than typical this year.

I don't think its going to make much of a difference because the PV is probably going to be very stout, anyway. The tenor of this winter will again be reliant on the Pacific....shocking, I know. Agree on a very well coupled La Nina....should be like 2022-2023 in that respect, as well as the quick shift west.

Yea, puff-puff pass on the '95-'96 analog.

Hope Allison and the kids are off getting ice cream

Hit 81 yesterday.

Yea, no argument there. Like I said, the indexes do not necessirly encompass the ideal domain space to maximixe the correlation to our weather, but I just forecast and report the calculated numbers in addition to the actual sensible weather and H5 pattern.

I really don't see much of a path to a nice season south of New England (save for one rogue, large event), assuming we are right about the NAO/PDO.....New England, especially north of the CT/RI borders, can sneak by if there is a ton of cold in se Canada and the PV is positioned correctly.

They have had some awful years by their standards...I mean, if you are going to judge it my Maryland climo, then never.

We defenitely need to see what the ACE does, though before resigning ourselves to another full-on catastrophe. 1988 was a normal ACE year and we should top that, but lets see how it plays out. 2007 was also near normal, but 1998 was very active....181.7

Why do you feel that is the case? Strength/positioning of the subtropical ridge?

Makes sense to me. How do you feel about 2007 as an analog? Obviously I don't expect quite that much snow in NNE, but I could see that type of pattern qualitatively speaking. QBO will be a poor match, but that wasn't a blocky season, anyway. I think we all agree there shouldn't be much blocking next season.

I don't think it's that low....2017-2018 was very good and 2020-2021 and 2021-2022 were okay.

Yea, well the calculation is what it is. I did note the westward displacement of the PNA.