40/70 Benchmark

This is why winter is warming faster than summer and nights are warming faster than days. The fastest rate of GW is occuring in instances of radiational cooling during the winter.

-PDO has been steadily weakning...not saying that will defiinitely continue, but I feel like the trend of the PDO is more highly correlated to the weather pattern than the index itself. Maybe someone like @Stormchaserchuck1 can chime in on that, but I feel like the PDO is a bit lagged from the atmosphere.

Makes sense given CC leads to increased mositure, thus elevating humidity capping heat....its the HI that will be morbid.

Doubt that....humidity is increasing, which while very uncomfortable, caps how warm it can get...HI absolutely may get that high.

If we do maintain coolish ENSO this year, don't sleep on 2000-2001 as a contender next season...take a deep dive into the prominent +PNA in the respective seasonal means that burst onto the scene to lower the curtain on a robust Pacific cold phase in each case. QBO seems to aligning well, too. If its warmish ENSO, there were obviously some similarities to 2013-2014 this past season, despite the east coast screwgie on snowfall. The QBO also looks to align with 2014, which just so happened to herald in a warm Pacific interlude following a potent cold phase that began in 2010. No...I don't expect 130" of snowfall in Worcester, MA or 100" in 30 days in Boston, so lets get that out of the way before the bun assault ensues....the validity of the 2013-2014 analog last year was a wonderful lesson in the value of an analog despite some notable differences in sensble weather for particular regions, especially with regard to high variance elements such as snowfall.

December seems to be a pretty strong -WPO.

I agree that there is no malicious agenda pushing...I don't think anyone has ever implied that there were malicious intentions by anyone on this forum. But I do think that a lot of folks already have their mind made up one way or another.

Now examine snowfall since 1970....the lagest surplus is in the NE coast, thus some of this is due to natural variability and regression. Not all of it.

Yes, that is my hope....something has to give...this goes on any longer and it will begin to lend more credence to some of Chris' theories.

2017-2018 was my last above average snowfall season due to a record March. 7 conecutive stinkers since.

Almost done with my recap of last season and how I did...will post it in the other thread when I finish within the next week or so. Not perfect by any stretch, but much better than last year.

I am with you, but just trying to keep an open mind. He did makes some valid points regarding ENSO in a warming climate that while I was initially skeptical of, I ended up capitulating to. He is a very night guy, but no one bats .1000.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/ -1.12 as of March..highest its been since August 2021.

The PDO assumed a more negative tendency right on cue with the periodicty with which it has always switched phases. There have always been ENSO induced deviations from the longer term tendency. I don't know....either everyone else on this forum is a moron, Chris is just a giant brain in a glass jar like Krang on Ninja Turtles bag in the day. Shredddoooorrrr...the Hadley Cell is sinkinngggg!!!"