40/70 Benchmark

Greater variance....same with snowfall.

Stay safe

Yea, that cooling of the subsurface towards the dateline was expected with the weakening of the WWBs....will probably progress eastward amd at least somewhat upwards.

Personally, I'll take warmer if it means wetter, which it should. Last season was the worst of the past several for me.

This is one example of why GW doesn't always mean a slew of cat 5 hurricanes.....the low thermal gradient between the subtropical and tropical ocean is fostering this stifling stability, which is why the tropics are quiet.

2014 is the best analog, but I didn't include it because it was El Nino.

Maybe I'm nuts, but perhaps the staff would know if you called??

I actually prefer the opposite.

This composite below is strongly QBO and solar derived.

I think February could be pretty balmy before some potential late season stratospheric shennanigans-

Notice the two steps forward, one step back type of progression towards the shift back to a warmer Pacific phase that occurred in both 2000 and 2012, where as 2000-2001 flipped strongly positive before 2001-2002 was negative again....2012-2013 was strongly positive and 2013-2014 flipped negative again. This is what I expect to see moving forward....next year will be negative again, but change is afoot IMHO. Its a several year process that will take the latter portion of this decade, but after that we should also be approaching solar min.

This is also added support for poleward Aleutian ridging....looks alot like more early polar composite.

Interesting....since 1950, I have 1955-1956, 1971-1972, 1974-1975, 1984-1985, 1999-2000, 2008-2009, 2011-2012, 2017-2018 and 2021-2022 as second year La Nina evemts. The only two DM periods that did not average -PNA out of that data set are 1999-2000 and 2011-2012, which preceeded swings back towards Pacific warm phase from cold phase. 2021-2022 actually had an extensive mid season +PNA mismatch period, but the seaonal mean was biased negative due to the the very stout RNA that ruined December....I could see a similar outocme this season with perhaps not as promounced -PNA, as that was record setting.

Right...its not a perfect 1 correlation because nothing is...doesn't mean there isn't predictive value to be gleaned.