HurricaneJosh Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 Looks like a crappy chinacane. What's more interesting than this fish? The GFS hinting that a couple of cyclones in the long range (Day 7-16) might get much, much closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 Well, we're not waiting for Cosme anymore. I think this thread title needs to be updated a little more frequently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted June 24, 2013 Author Share Posted June 24, 2013 Well, we're not waiting for Cosme anymore. I think this thread title needs to be updated a little more frequently. Sorry I'm not eagerly awaiting NHC's 5 am update to revise the subtitle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Sorry I'm not eagerly awaiting NHC's 5 am update to revise the subtitle. I'm not talking about the 5 am update. It was the same for several weeks. C'mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Anyhoo, Cosme is strengthening-- will become a 'cane way S of Los Cabos and it'll most certainly fish. The GFS is suggesting some more cyclone might form in the next couple of weeks-- perhaps closer to the coast-- but they should head out to sea also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 HURRICANE COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 9NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013800 AM PDT TUE JUN 25 2013CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT COSME HAS BECOME BETTERORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH A WELL-DEFINEDCONVECTIVE BAND PATTERN AND OCCASIONAL APPEARANCES OF AN EYE.SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW 65 KT.IN ADDITION...A RECENT AMSU OVERPASS SHOWED AN ALMOST-CLOSEDEYEWALL WITH AN ACCOMPANYING INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 67 KT. BASED ONALL OF THE ABOVE...COSME IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE.COSME HAS JOGGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY WITHA 12-HOUR MOTION OF 305/16. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLECHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. COSME IS EXPECTED TO TURNWEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS ALONGTHE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WESTWARD-EXPANDING MID-LEVELSUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITEDSTATES. AFTER THAT TIME...COSME SHOULD BE STEERED GENERALLYWESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW AS IT WEAKENS. THE NEWFORECAST TRACK IS PARALLEL TO...BUT NORTH OF...THE PREVIOUS TRACKBASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION. THE NEW TRACK LIES NEARTHE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WHICH IS MORE TIGHTLYCLUSTERED THAN NORMAL.COSME IS IN A LIGHT/MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...AND THE NEWFORECAST TRACK HAS IT REACHING 26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES INABOUT 12 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS SHOWS SOMESTRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 12 HOURS...FOLLWED BY STEADYWEAKENING OVER DECREASING SSTS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKENTO A TROPICAL STORM IN 24-36 HOURS...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN ABOUT72 HOURS...AND SUBSEQUENTLY DECAY INTO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 96HOURS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUSFORECAST.THE EXTENSIVE 12-FT SEAS RADII IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE PROVIDED BYTHE TAFB IS THE RESULT OF LONG-FETCH SOUTHERLY CROSS-EQUATORIALFLOW GENERATING LARGE SWELLS...WHICH WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE PACIFICCOAST OF MEXICO AND THE BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OFDAYS.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 25/1500Z 17.7N 110.7W 65 KT 75 MPH12H 26/0000Z 18.2N 112.7W 75 KT 85 MPH24H 26/1200Z 18.9N 114.9W 70 KT 80 MPH36H 27/0000Z 19.6N 117.2W 55 KT 65 MPH48H 27/1200Z 20.4N 119.8W 45 KT 50 MPH72H 28/1200Z 21.5N 125.0W 30 KT 35 MPH96H 29/1200Z 21.5N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW120H 30/1200Z 21.5N 134.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW$$FORECASTER BEVEN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted June 26, 2013 Author Share Posted June 26, 2013 Cosme has weakened to a TS over colder waters. Looks to me on the last 2-3 frames of visible satellite that the center is jogging a bit south of the forecast track, which could potentially keep it a TS slightly longer than NHC projects. Still, probably just delaying the inevitable (and could easily 'correct' back north in the next frame). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Moving on... Today's 12z ECMWF decides to keep things relatively active over the next 5+ days in the basin with the possibility for two new tropical cyclones to develop. Makes sense given how gung-ho the model regarding the current MJO pulse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Over the past couple of days, the Globals have been fairly consistent in developing tropical cyclone in the EPAC. The GFS and Euro both suggest a general NW to NNW motion with the Euro hinting a possible approach to Cabo San Lucas in about 8-10 days. 96E has a better chance than Cosme ever did... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 96E has a better chance than Cosme ever did... Indeed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted June 28, 2013 Author Share Posted June 28, 2013 1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OFACAPULCO MEXICO HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FORDEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS AMEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURINGTHE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 96E may exist just to tease and torment our resident chaser. There do appear to be a few happier members. On NCEP site, quite a few members get sub 1000 mb, but only a few go sub 996mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted June 28, 2013 Author Share Posted June 28, 2013 It's interesting to compare a 96 h ECMWF forecast for Cosme made pre-genesis verifying close to the time of peak intensity (left), to a 120 h ECMWF forecast for what may become Dalila (right). The forecast MSLP suggested a broad wind field for Cosme, which verified nicely. The forecast for 96E suggests a much tighter core. We'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 000NOUS42 KNHC 281709REPRPDWEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTSCARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.0110 PM EDT FRI 28 JUNE 2013SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z JUNE 2013TCPOD NUMBER.....13-028 AMENDMENTI. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS -- ADDED1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE FIX OF A DEVELOPINGHURRICANE OFF MEXICO'S WEST COAST NEAR 18.0N 106.0WAT 01/1800Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 96E may exist just to tease and torment our resident chaser. I am keepin' an eye on it. Adam said there's a tiny (but real) chance it could get interestin'. But like I said on the iCyclone Facebook page, hurricane landfalls on Mexico's Pacific coast in July are exceedingly rare-- only three since 1949. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 P.S. So nice to see the thread subtitle all up-to-date and traditional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 I am keepin' an eye on it. Adam said there's a tiny (but real) chance it could get interestin'. But like I said on the iCyclone Facebook page, hurricane landfalls on Mexico's Pacific coast in July are exceedingly rare-- only three since 1949. I tend to agree. Close but no cigar. The Western Ridge should turn any future Dalila NW away from landfall. Sappy love songs come to mind with that name anyway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 I tend to agree. Close but no cigar. The Western Ridge should turn any future Dalila NW away from landfall. Sappy love songs come to mind with that name anyway... Hush. It's not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted June 29, 2013 Author Share Posted June 29, 2013 I tend to agree. Close but no cigar. The Western Ridge should turn any future Dalila NW away from landfall. Sappy love songs come to mind with that name anyway... Either way, pretty good agreement in the models from ECMWF to HWRF that Dalila will be a small, reasonably-well organized TC that has a good shot at being the best eye candy so far this season - in either basin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 A majority of the statistical model guidance, and the GFS, showed 96E peaked as a Category 2 hurricane in 3-4 days. Now none of them show the storm becoming a hurricane. Wazzup with that. I know sea surface temperatures are expected to decrease towards the end of the period, but that much of an intensity reduction while the storm is forecast to be in favorable conditions for the next 3-4 days (before said SSTs decrease)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Depression 04E at 11 per Maue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Meh... TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013800 AM PDT SUN JUN 30 2013SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF DEEPCONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...ANDBANDING FEATURES ARE NOT YET WELL-DEFINED. THE CURRENT INTENSITYESTIMATE IS HELD AT 35 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES FROMTAFB AND SAB. DALILA IS EXPERIENCING SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR...BUTTHE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING OVER THENEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A LITTLEABOVE THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND CLOSE TO THE INTENSITYMODEL CONSENSUS.RECENT CENTER FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE MOTION IS NOW NORTH-NORTHWESTOR NEAR 340/8. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ASTRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TOINDUCE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE LEFT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ONLY A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THEPREVIOUS ONE BEYOND 48 HOURS...AND IS NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THETRACK GUIDANCE MODEL ENVELOPE.GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN SIZE AND TRACK...THE TROPICAL STORMWARNING AND WATCH HAVE BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THESOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 30/1500Z 15.5N 103.2W 35 KT 40 MPH12H 01/0000Z 16.4N 103.9W 40 KT 45 MPH24H 01/1200Z 17.3N 104.7W 50 KT 60 MPH36H 02/0000Z 18.0N 105.6W 55 KT 65 MPH48H 02/1200Z 18.6N 106.4W 60 KT 70 MPH72H 03/1200Z 19.0N 108.0W 60 KT 70 MPH96H 04/1200Z 19.0N 109.5W 50 KT 60 MPH120H 05/1200Z 19.0N 112.0W 40 KT 45 MPH$$FORECASTER PASCH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted June 30, 2013 Author Share Posted June 30, 2013 To be honest, the lack of strengthening so far today and the decrease in the intensity forecast are both a bit strange. Both mid-level and deep-layer wind shear are low, at or below 10 kt per CIMSS analyses. There is somewhat stronger shear NW / ahead of Dalila but the area of higher shear appears to be "retreating" towards the NW. There is also some dry air ahead of Dalila but with the shear out of the south there shouldn't be much getting into the system. Even the CPC velocity potential plots still look favorable for ventilation of outflow. The biggest detractor on SHIPS is somewhat warm temps at 200 mb, but with so much else going for it, I don't see any obvious reasons why Delila won't exceed current NHC forecasts and become a hurricane. Aside: I will be out of town the next 10 days with little free time to update the subtitle. Srain / Adam could you help out here when necessary (keep Josh happy)? K thx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Dalila looks much better this morning. It may reach cane status after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Had an eye yesterday...completely collapsed. It has gained the eye again but dry air is definitely intertwined in the circulation. We'll see what it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Dalila made cane status after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 Microcane alert for Josh, stat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted July 4, 2013 Share Posted July 4, 2013 I'm reading the latest discussion on Dalila and I had a question. SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS REVEALS THAT THE CLOUDPATTERN OF DALILA IS DETERIORATING FAST. AN SSMI/S MICROWAVEPASS...AROUND 0000 UTC...SHOWED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER ISREMOVED FROM A SHRINKING AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. FURTHERMORE...LATEST AVAILABLE SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS COULD BELOWER THAN INDICATED. HOWEVER...SINCE I INHERITED A 60-KNOTSTORM...I WOULD RATHER LOWER THE WINDS GRADUALLY...AND THE INITIALINTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KNOTS. IT APPEARS THAT DRY AND STABLE AIR ISALREADY AFFECTING THE CIRCULATION...AND THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTSINCREASING SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUALWEAKENING...BUT THIS PROCESS COULD OCCUR FASTER THAN FORECAST. Why does Avila want to "lower the winds gradually?" I understand that estimating wind speed isn't necessarily easy and/or particularly accurate without a recon mission or something, but he seems to be saying "I think it's a 40/45-knot storm and I'm calling it 50 knots." It's a fairly irrelevant storm, it's not an important difference anyway, and I'm certainly not trying to attack the NHC but as an amateur I'd like to understand the logic of the pros, especially if there's a scientific reason. Is it simply not feasible to expect a storm to spin down that fast in open water? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 4, 2013 Share Posted July 4, 2013 50 knots is uhm... Generous? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 4, 2013 Share Posted July 4, 2013 I'm reading the latest discussion on Dalila and I had a question. Why does Avila want to "lower the winds gradually?" I understand that estimating wind speed isn't necessarily easy and/or particularly accurate without a recon mission or something, but he seems to be saying "I think it's a 40/45-knot storm and I'm calling it 50 knots." It's a fairly irrelevant storm, it's not an important difference anyway, and I'm certainly not trying to attack the NHC but as an amateur I'd like to understand the logic of the pros, especially if there's a scientific reason. Is it simply not feasible to expect a storm to spin down that fast in open water? Avila is a long time veteran and and often likes to add in his own prior experience before trusting remote sensing (like ASCAT) for the intensity of TCs in the EPAC. I think this is a fair move given that Dalila is still over warm SSTs and could re-fire substancial convection. It is also worth noting that intensity can and often is adjusted in the best track if it is later discovered the intensity was assessed incorrectly. Just because Dalila is assessed at 50 knots operationally doesn't mean that it couldn't be revised to 40/45 knots later on for the same time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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