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That gives me some sort of relief I guess. Hoping whatever forms shoots up the East coast into the Atlantic. Is that more likely to happen instead of a direct hit? Seems like the rest of the storms between now and then are making that curve. (I don’t know much about the tropics so please forgive my ignorance).

yeah, entertaining fo' sho' but still, never seen a hurricane do an EC run thru a ridge and no steering field actually conducting it to do so in the first place. I feel that's beta drift in the model. If push came to shove I'd be force to bet that a heat wave pattern from the OV-NE region sets the table for a Cane to do a Gulf o/mex entrance

either that or development will consistently shift sw, end up a GOM cruiser

You’re absolutely right, we could ask for a delay. I’m going to put aside the house topic for now, because that’s doable really at any time. I should’ve clarified. We haven’t picked a house yet, we are going down to choose from 3 options we like. Down to our final three, so that can be put on pause. I’m mainly concerned about my PTO because I’ve had this week circled for 6 weeks at this point. It’s more so a vacation as well as house hunting. The neighborhood we’re looking at his multiple houses for sale and it’s a safe distance from the coast and at a higher elevation. I know it’s a risk you run living in Florida regardless. I’m hopeful for the sake of my vacation & sanity that it does not happen and even more so hopeful for the residents of FL.

it's like possible 100 F for 2 straight days followed by that yeeeeah

Likely standard Euro too. Don’t need to know the nuances—it’s impossible at this range—just that something is there.

Still under 80 at CHO. The filtered sun is really holding temps down

6-10" of rain on the euro and 50-75+mph gusts depending on where you are. That would be fun. Of course this will track 300 miles east of here, but always fun to see.

Ray and I began noticing the atmospheric teleconnector correlation stressing over the last 10 years actually. It's an interesting aspect. I haven't dug into the matter at the granularity of that, but have noticed it and what you're saying isn't far off from what Ray and I have discussed in the past. From what I'm anecdotally observing ... it's not so much that a -EPOs or +PNAs ...-NAOs don't correlate. It's more about the lack of resonance feed-backs locking in patterns long enough to give the correlations a time to manifest. The ephemeral atmosphere syndrome ... they abandon the storms ... cold and hot looks. That heat wave near the end of June was clipped for length by higher frequency for example.

Same, tell Lisa I said hi.

Vis is better but still lots of smoke. I can see the sunrays from the Cu. We had a brief popup shower just west of air but otherwise dry, dry, dry. (Tell Lisa I said hi)

Violence on the euro

It will be another week before you should even begin to worry about what the models are showing...

If I were in your position, I’d be asking for a delay of this closing til after the potential threat from this is past. When do you need to ask for a delay by? Wouldn’t it be easier to be granted a delay if you ask sooner? Even though still only a small chance, what if this ends up hitting FL hard just after you close? I’d prefer that uncertainty to be past considering how big an investment this is. But that’s just me.

My grandparents had a house in Long Valley, NJ which had a 3/4-acre lawn that we would mow. Each time we'd discover (usually painfully) 2-3 yellowjacket nests. My long-passed dad would not have followed the above - at about 4 AM he'd pour a half cup of gas into the entry hole and follow it with a match. One large nest had so much underground wasp-paper infrastructure that there was a bushel basket-sized hole after the burnout.

This dry air has bucked the trend of high minima so far. Highs are running +0.3 while lows are -5.4.

It's more inland and away from the coast at a higher elevation, that was my first thought when my wife and I discussed about a move to FL. It's all job related as well.

So it's growing increasingly likely this will likely hit Florida? I don't follow the tropics like I did winter weather in the Mid-Atlantic.

12Z Euro landfalls in E NC/Outer Banks at hour 324 (late on Aug 21st with it then in the 950s of mbs or likely near cat 3 status. All of this is very much just fwiw since it’s just an operational run out in fantasyland:

It's funny, sensibly so far the month is still considerably cooler than BOS. Our mean temperature this month is 65.7... Boston's is 69.0F. I guess normally we are running 8 degrees cooler than BOS in the means, instead of 3-4F.

Reading your comments, it makes me wonder if you should rethink closing on a house in a highly vulnerable location to hurricanes in general like Tampa? Is it well inland and at a safe elevation?

It'd still be there; the eye isn't drawn to it because the trough may appear foreboding. But, it's presence is betrayed by the very fast flow around the trough. Speed anomalies is what you'd look for. It takes some "physics intuition" if you will, but can be shown mathematically ... The HC doesn't really "deflate" or go away in the winter. What happens is that the geometry of it gets converted to mechanical power in the form of wind - the balanced geostrophic wind velocity in the means. As the hgt field compresses south, the winds increase in direct proportion. The more the increase, the more compression took place ( steeper gradient).

Beautiful weather on the Maine coast last couple of days, 82 yesterday, 83 today, low dews with a breeze, perfect.

Glad we don't live there.

just the opposite here this week.