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We had 100° heat last June in NJ on the 21st. But didn’t make it to Long Island. Brooklyn and Queens made it to 100° in July 2022 along with NJ. June 2021 featured 100° heat throughout NJ, Brooklyn and Queens. 2024 and 2021 featured the strongest 100° heat in June. This was due to how wet the summer became after. So frontloaded heat then heavy rains. 2022 was the only dry enough summer for widespread 100° heat in July.

I bet that verifies a bit higher for BDL , if we get a clean ridge much higher..

This is some real crazy weather these days

NWS has been horrific lately

we almost stayed in the 50s yesterday Tony =\

with a ridge that strong shouldn't it connect to the offshore ridge and provide a continental westerly flow?

I will monitor... I certainly wouldn't be advising an emergency manager. I'm not an analog forecaster.

ACATT never fails to disappoint . As foolish as they make themselves look

Its all or more about the position center of the ridge, we have had record ridges in the past 10 years >600DM's.

Not much sun either, which is what I was referencing

no 100 degree heat in Brooklyn or Manhattan either lol. Only in northern Queens which is influenced by high traffic density.

I already looked at models this morning..do you need me to post every map for you? would you like me to make breakfast for you or can you do that yourself?

Yes these highs have been much weaker in the last few years than they were in the 90s when they overpowered the ocean.

You have to go back to 2015 for consecutive highs in the 60s for most of the board, that was the first week of Jue. June 2012 had a 3 day streak similar to this wthigh high near or below 70 around the same time.

Hi

climo plus historical analogs, it rarely ever happens that the hottest weather is in June, plus the very important fact that a quick change to hot weather in the latter third of June much more often than not portends to a very hot summer and the hottest weather coming in July.

While models have done well with the 6-10 day warm signals in recent years, the wind direction specifics haven’t been figured out until we have been under 120 hrs. We have had numerous 6-10 day model forecasts in recent years with deep westerly flow and 100° heat forecast onto Long Island. But as we got closer to forecast time, more onshore flow shows up. So the areas in NJ away from the sea breeze have seen the strongest heat. This is why JFK to ISP haven’t had any 100° heat since 2013. All the recent 100° heat since 2013 has been restricted to NJ and Brooklyn and Queens.

NWS Point and clicks ? I mean is that what’s you’ve come to? Sad to see this happening

He's reconfigured Southern New England so many times Jersey might now be part of it.

That will come down a bit maybe mon and Tuesday will be correct day 9 and 10 but after we cool closer to average or slightly above

No sure why you say that? Explain? I dont see it in the means which I know are not necessarily reliable but all I can go on. I tend to see this coming heat as significant but July/August? Don might something more to say then what I'm seeing, which is reoccurring troughing in the east and maybe more ridging developing in the Atlantic, implying bouts of wetness alternating with humid heat. Typical above normal temp summer....but in the means but I cant think of 100. Modeling can be overexhuberant beyond a week. So I plan shorter term. Tuesday doubleheader softball hopefully gets in before the next bigger rain, and then the 24th, we may need to plan second game midday starting with a shorter count to avoid cooking our 70 and 80 year old players. That's how I plan.

Today Mostly cloudy, with a high near 67. Light east wind. Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50. Light east wind. Monday Partly sunny, with a high near 71. Calm wind becoming southeast 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 52. Southeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Tuesday Partly sunny, with a high near 72. Calm wind becoming southeast around 6 mph in the afternoon. Tuesday Night A chance of showers, mainly after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. Southeast wind 3 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Wednesday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 79. Southwest wind 5 to 7 mph. Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. Southwest wind around 6 mph. Juneteenth A chance of showers before 2pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 2pm and 4pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. Southwest wind 6 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Thursday Night Showers and thunderstorms likely before 8pm, then a chance of showers between 8pm and 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. West wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Friday A chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 77. West wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 56. West wind 5 to 7 mph. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. West wind 6 to 9 mph.

Spotty light rain on this chilly April morning

00z Euro has 3000+ CAPE Thursday mid-afternoon and then storms roll though.