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here---this is a true cape storm

We get thru this 3 day weekend and this storm is still there 7 days out then maybe it’s worth tracking

The 18z GFS is definitely running w/ the over-running idea. Unsurprisingly it has trended slightly north, BUT...this looks like the winters of the past decade where the cold stalls either at the Plateau or Apps. I bet if you dig back through my winter forecast in June, you will see this scenario mentioned.

Have a nice time gooning, man.

Same family

Cheers! Gulp gulp

5-10" for most

Solid

Can't see precip. effin WB lol that low location looks good tho

Are we in Guy Fawkes ("Guys-Folks") territory????

Yeah, it's a nice hit. Plenty of cold. No snow maps tho

Bing bong there it is.

I don’t bring it out often .

Of course my laptop just died.

And I get that it is frustrating for some. My pet peeve is tracking a potential pattern change, and it turns into a seasonal frontal passage. Haha. I just don't see this as a "can kick". Jan 1-10 was a can kick. This weekend's system was a pretty bad model error in terms of synoptics. I do think the GFS has a tendency to (erroneously)really, really amplify features on the map at times between the d 7-15 times. I don't understand it. It wasn't like that last winter that I can recall - maybe I need to go back and check. Right now, we are fighting widespread drouth over the SE. Trying to get a moisture conveyor belt going over drought areas is like pulling teeth.

FOLKS

Guys

Looks good

I remember back in December 2018, the year we moved to Boone, my weather apps were all honing in on a period of snow from ~Dec. 8 to the 10th, and we ended up getting almost 2 feet out of that storm here in Deep Gap. I watched that period of snow stay shown on the apps for about a month before it happened. I'm still not sure how we zeroed in on that at least a month ahead of time and it still panned out, but I will always remember that. That being said, there has been constant freezing precip showing up for the 23-25th time period for about a month now. Just sayin.

Still on the same panel, but it's an extensive area of precip covering much of the country from the Dakotas down to TX

Will or make it or will all that high pressure north kill it? Find out soon.

The potential warmup shows up quite prominently on the Week 3 guidance:

Ok, back to moving again..precip still advancing east, heavier down south

The story for most storms this winter. Southern stuff keeps getting smashed.