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That's kind of been the H5 pattern this Summer though, atmosphere leading. Now it does run forward (consistency of the NAO/AO) at a 0.2-3 correlation, but something to look at is the relative SSTAs in comparison to the pattern.. if it runs warmer, that means there is probably warm subsurface fueling the stream and cold season +NAO chances would be heightened, because that kind of thing is harder to shut down.

Smoke worse today? Can’t even see sun through it. Edit: might be some clouds out there.

Yep, if you look back at the falls which preceded winters that featured very strong +NAO, that’s the SST alignment you will see. And if this continues into cold season, with the warm waters over by Iceland and Europe, and the cold south of Greenland and up Davis Straight, you can see exactly where the jet stream and very fast, zonal flow will be….right along that gradient of cold/warm waters

That EPS pattern is not one to get a cane up here. Ridge is too far east over the plains and you need a deeper trough a little bit further west than where the mean is showing it right now. Probably better for florida or the southeast.

I haven't checked my index, but it's probably very positive.. that looks like close to +0.75 in that map (DJFM NAO). The cold over the southern Davis Strait and south of Greenland is a big part of it.

Japan might have enough of a linear trend to have been effected by a shifting of currents, but I don't think the SE ridge is. It's still hard to say, because the Pacific is still such an extreme ocean. If we were in +PDO and the Gulf of Alaska and West coast was really warm, you would probably be pointing that out as the "global shift". I think that all you are doing is pointing out the underlining warming.

@Stormchaserchuck1 This is probably the most +NAO SST alignment I’ve seen in a long time. The cold SSTs from around/south of Greenland and up Davis Straight has preceded winters that saw predominate strong to very +NAOs and very fast, zonal flow in the Atlantic

I think we may actually approach a moderate La Niña on the RONI this coming fall/winter. I also believe there’s a good chance we see a weak La Niña on the ONI. A strong -PDO winter would not surprise me either

I thought Gloria was good relatively speaking. Better than Bob. No power for like 5 days or so.

Cow nose rays here on LI every year

The deepmind ai model had a hurricane making a beeline for Central America recently

I would say the climatological odds favor the African wave staying out to sea. We don't have a huge ridge over the top, but sometimes early in the season you can get a track like Andrew.

We had a strong +PDO wave 2014-2016, it got up there over +2 for a good amount of time. Many thought the phase could be shifting because the std of the +pdo at that time was pretty high, but it tanked a few years after the 15-16 Strong Nino. Looking back, it was just a blip, or an anomaly, in the 30-year trend.

I remember the long range GFS making a monster hurricane every run. One into Miami. One into New York City. The end result? Hurricane Dean, Cat 5 landfall in Yucatan. Not every long range GFS run is fantasy, especially when it is August and you have consistency run to run showing something developing. The track may be unknown, but something happening becomes more and more likely.

Did we not have an extended period of +PDO in the early-mid 2010s? I recall the slower tornado seasons of those years (mainly 2012-2015, notwithstanding events like Rozel, Moore, Pilger, Rochelle) being attributed to that.

I hope Jaxson Dart takes over the job very quickly for you guys. No use wasting any time with Russell Wilson.

My Dad's service was today, and I read a eulogy I prepared. You should all know that I quoted from one of your comments and talked about how important this place was to him. Thank you all.

w conspiracy, who planted these sharks?

This video I took is from Oak Beach State Park north of Robert Moses. https://streamable.com/qwx7qu

They’re even at the marina today. I’ve been there for 40 years, never seen one there or anywhere in the sound even.

We haven’t had a hurricane strike but we’ve been pretty active. Irene, Sandy, Fay, Isaias, Henri…not to mention all of the Atlantic Canada strikes including their storm of record (Fiona). It just hasn’t been high end for us, which I do think is unusual given the number of hits.

the entire she-bang may evolve (at least early-on) into seaward jobs and ruin SST or-- OHC- jet fuel

? I have not seen anything like that . lol Ever

Lots of sting rays in the sound and Long Island harbors this heat. I’ve been boating here my whole life and I’ve never seen them before

Not this many days with widespread surface air quality impacts. Nothing else comes close to 2023 and 2025 in my memory.