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It would require a dramatic shift for this to threaten the US east coast. It’s pretty much gone at this point.

This looks promising Sent from my SM-X210 using Tapatalk

Fernand strikes me as a gulf quick fire name

Haha that line was 100% frustration from looking at my seasonal snow total this morning. It is regression and I do agree that in general winter produces most here looking at the longer arc of time. Doesn’t change the pain of losing nearly a decade to some historically bad winters. That’s time you don’t get back.

Conceptually, it could be done. I suspect that reasons that such classifications have not been pursued are the additional elements of duration and nighttime temperatures that help define heatwave severity.

The Bay of Campeche/SW Gulf has often over performed. A TC from this wouldn’t at all surprise me. The NHC is probably too low with its percentages.

All for the bloody peak season energy to go into the EPAC what’s the point

also, what happened to that heat ridge from the west that gave us our big heat in late June? we don't usually get our hottest weather from a Bermuda High, our hottest weather comes from when the big ridge out west expands eastward

Day 4 of 6th Heatwave rolls on 90/77/100

This summer represents a turning point because we finally got a really strong hot ridge in June that gave us all 100+ degree temperatures. I think we are cycling back to that-- this summer was the first shot across the bow. How strong would the ridge have to be to give everyone over 100 degree temperatures from Canada all the way down to the Carolinas?

The latest Euro Weeklies are showing only 80% of ACE for 9/1-14, a big drop from the progged 400% for 8/18-24 due to Erin to ~1/2 the ACE of its 8/18-24 prog (likely MJO related). But then again, it’s 80% of the very active 2005-24 climo for near peak season. So, even if the 80% were to verify well, that would still mean an active period (even though not to the degree of the Erin week) and would end up way more active than for that period in 2024. Sep 1-14 of 2024 had only ~5-6 ACE, which is a mere <20% of the ~31 ACE avg for Sep 1-14 of 2005-24. Compare that to the EW’s 80% prog, which would be ~25 ACE for Sep 1-14 of 2025 or 4-5 times as high as 2024.

is there a way to classify heatwaves the way we classify snowstorms Don? For example, for KU events we have: coverage of 4 inch snowfall coverage of 10 inch snowfall coverage of 20 inch snowfall for heatwaves we can classify them 1-5 in the same way coverage of 90 degree temperatures coverage of 95 degree temperatures coverage of 100 degree temperatures on this scale the late June heatwave would be a 4 or even a 5 !

this is why 1993 and 1953 were such great summers (and it was hot everywhere and not just Newark.)

Interesting to see the euro AI model keep shifting west past few runs. No idea what it is seeing though. Hitting the east coast.

Hey the sun is nice!

But I'd dispute that this can even be considered heat at all. Someone said earlier that we should now consider 95+ to be heat. I turn my a/c off at night because it gets so cold. It's not hot at all.

Boy that 00z GFS was an inferno run out there... 06z backed off. There could be a legit (last?) signal after the 20th for some heat but it needs some work. won't get into what that is because no one will read it but 50/50

Been a dry, and seasonable Aug so far up my way (favoring the + side). Chance at precip in the next couple days. Early Fall wx starting to creep in next week. Much better than sticky, but this week has been pretty good with cooler mornings.

Some big clouds to my north blocking all the sun for them... Luckyyyy

If the ridge ends up more defined than current guidance vision creating a weakness to draw it N ... a weaker formed Erin could then get left behind - it's lower probability for the time being, but not impossible.

Out in Canaan Valley this week Perseid hunting. Haven't seen any Perseid's this year but some absolutely fantastic storms came through last night beginning around 1AM. Very electrical w/ pouring rain, little to no wind. Perfect for enjoying on the porch! Looking forward to more later today.

I knew climo favored a recurve, but my goodness...

So doesn't Miami...what is the value of that perfunctory assessment? The volume disparity makes it silly to compare. When you put things into respective regarding how anomalous the prior decade was in the opposite direction, the current drought is still largely regression attibutable. I know my 10 year average just slipped blow normal this past year....but frustrating, nonetheless.