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Hopefully but we know in 6 hours there will be another solution. Not surprised at all by this though.

It would be an all time win for the second tier models.

One thing that is constant on the models all of them is a blocking area of high pressure streaming down from Eastern Canada and off the New England Coast. Both of these systems Humberto and Imelda have no chance of getting north of say Outer Banks points northward. Looks like 18z GFS just changes everything and the westerlies take over along the East Coast and send everything packing up and heading out to sea it is plausible I suppose. I would say at this juncture that the Outer Banks points north are out of the woods from direct impacts, but we could be setting the stage for rough surf and waves from the systems themselves and also the tight pressure gradient from the high up north and the lows down south. Honestly these blocking highs up the coast in the Mid-Atlantic and to SE Canada and New England have been a steady feature going back to July and August. I would not let your guard down Florida to say Cape Fear NC and head any warnings as Neuman eluded to early. Looks like the blocking gates to the east will open to let Imelda to follow Humberto right out to sea as the blocking comes down from the north and the systems bounce east quite plausible.

Euro ai shows low pressures for humberto at the 12z time so we'll see how it does.

29F dew point on Thursday per happy hour!

No landfall would be a big win for the Euro AI

Icon starts going up coast by florida then gets pulled towards humberto...

Gefs supports the no landfall the op showed. This time around there showing how strong humberto is with pressures in the 900s versus 1000+

Hopefully, that is the final solution.

18z GFS is bizarre.

If this “busts” I hope the public understands how tough a forecast this is and the difference between a major impact vs a non event is literally anyone’s guess right now. Good for South Carolina being proactive

18zgfs no landfall!!!!

It's nothing right now, nobody knows what will happen.

18z GFS says that Imelda stalls before moving east

They’re call “ever” greens for a reason.

Well that was a rough Summary from a professional meteorologist I see online before.

Agreed. I work at FDEM as one of the mets and we've been trying our best to communicate the uncertainty in the forecast at the 3-4 day range. But at this point, most people expect a solid "answer". Not expecting any direct impacts from Imelda here, but are keeping our Florida East Coast partners well informed. On another note, South Carolina has just declared a state of emergency

I wish we had recon in there. This has the look of a high end cat 4 already

Per the current forecast Humberto would be near if not over Gabrielle’s number. Another high ACE producer incoming

I think it has a lot more to do with slower development of Imelda and slower speed

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/36/3/JCLI-D-22-0010.1.xml Shouldn't have too much of an issue with getting propogating MJO especially combined with the -QBO which will help increase instabillity in the upper tropopause/lower stratosphere, +SSTA over 140-175E will help enhance moisture convergence in the leading phase/wave of the MJO

Now the new 18z gfs keeps it completely off land now. So we will see.

Near peak? That’s half green

This is truly remarkable uncertainty on the guidance given how close we could be to a landfall. The GFS follows what some ensemble camps have hinted at, but the outcome verbatim is just radically different in impacts and timing compared to recent op runs. This is a very tough system for emergency managers that need to prepare people to take action.