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These weather forums have always existed in order to provide context to the current weather being experienced and the forecasts based on these current initialized conditions. Don and Uncle started adding background on the other forum. Reading their excellent posts was one of the reasons that I joined. While it’s nice having everyone list their current conditions, adding context to how it fits in to what is usual or unusual has always been a tradition. This is the main reason that weather records exist in the first place. But these continuous climate shifts since the late 1970s to warmer have been changing the baseline. So we are no longer in the stable and cooler climate prior to the 1980s. Understanding this is essential since it sets the new parameters of what types of events are possible for each warmer climate background state. We can’t accurately make forecasts based on these older assumptions which applied to the cooler climate eras. Plus the warming introduces new biases into the model forecasts which we need to discuss for accurate forecasts. If for some reason things were different and we were slipping into a new ice age, I doubt that the posters such as yourself would complain that too much attention was being given to how much colder our climate is becoming. So my guess is that you would be fine with discussing that in these threads and not want to move the discussion into a separate coming ice age and global cooling thread.

That makes my skin crawl, even though I know we need them lol. Just not inside my house =\

Yep, this is the case in many other countries too and it's driving the pollinator mass extinction.

JFK ISP batting shut outs for 90 degree days in August. I've had 1 (last Thursday) How is ACY getting shut out of 90 degree days in August, that's very unusual! They might end the month with zero 90 degree days if Sunday doesn't pan out, has that ever happened before?

September is still summer and can be quite hot. Our seasons are more closely in line with astronomy than these bogus *Met seasons*

has the sun come out yet by you-- it's playing hide and seek today lol

85/75/90

Yea that would have been truly awful, even if it had weakened down to a Cat 2 or something and hit the outer banks, like that one storm did a few years ago after devastating the Bahamas as a Cat 5. That was progged to hit Florida at one point.

Sure but it could've hit somewhere along the eastern seaboard and we could've had a strong hurricane up here

Congrats Ant, have you picked a name yet?

Not in an August discussion thread

His new avatar seems to show the Mets are on fire lol

If we had this kind of thing in summers like 1993, 2010, etc, do you think they would have recorded even more 90/95/100 degree days?

Oh wow happed to look outside and it is raining here. Quite the surprise I mean I saw that it was getting a bit darker out but that has happened so many times before I ignored it.

What a beast. That perfect eye on the San Juan radar.

You don't even need to get that far into the interior on many of these sea breeze days, I'm a few miles south of Sunrise Highway (but also a few miles north of the ocean), and it often doesn't get here until after 3-4 pm. I'm a little suspicious of 6-7 days of 100+ lol, the summer hasn't been hot enough to do that (1993 and 2010 were wall to wall heat.) Wait, are you sure EWR has had 7 days of 100+ Chris? I thought they only had 4. They're still behind 1949 and 1993 but now it's getting close.

This is trochoidal wobbling of the core, as of right now the eye is deviating back to the NW. The greater motion of the storm is as forecast

I mentioned earlier that Erin is embedded in an above mean background pressure regime. So if we get readings down near 910 hPa before Erin levels off, we may see some higher sustained winds yet. We saw this during Dorian and Irma near their peaks, though I'm not saying Erin will get that intense. 150 kts/175 mph sustained doesn't seem unreasonable now, however.

There was a zero chance of that ever coming here, but I love seeing Cat 5's in the middle of the ocean not affecting anyone.

Unfortunately, I'm not in Queens, I'm in Nassau County so there's no way to do that here, do you know if they are planning on expanding the micronet to Nassau County? Lots of us exceeded JFK's 102 degrees in late June. I remember the sea breeze made it there and then got stuck there before backing off lol.

Wow Erin up to 160 already. We dodged a bullet for sure

Don could you run the numbers for 1949 and 1944 at NYC too with this new weighting system you're using? They seem like they are very close (1949 is 9th and 1944 is 10th), if you used your new weighting system would 1944 leapfrog over 1949? August 1944 had so many heat records that still stand to this day. It would be interesting to see how summers rank in terms of record highs and let's bring September into the mix. For either NYC or JFK (or both) can summers be ranked in terms of most record daily high temperatures in JJAS?

Wow at that dropsonde from the previous pass, which splashed down in the SW eyewall.

So, uh, Erin's on the south side if rhe cone again.