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Looked intriguing

Take a look at the 500 charts, this run verbatim doesn’t get us there, but the changes were marked and in the right direction overall

Yesterday. The initial low gets to PA.

I liked the end of the RGEM very much

I wouldn’t rule out plowable out there though as these have a tendency to phase later and tilt back enough to clip sema.

It was better than 6z. However our issue is not being closer to the coast but rather the storm gaining latitude. The biggest runs had a double low with the initial low getting to WV. Now that this low is missing the storm forms and moves ENE instead of NE. Perhaps due to the below average water temps up here.

ICON north of 00z but still a miss

We all know they’ve been lacking down there and need more.

Agreed

Yea. Much better than 0z though. Unfortunately this is what the rest of the week will look like with cycles. Better here and there but not enough…

38.5° and partly sunny. Warmest temp here since Jan 15.

Well, we’re still five days out so I wouldn’t completely abandoned ship.

I am not saying you are wrong...you're not... tendencies within patterns are a real thing. You're right. What I am saying is...it's not useful for predictive purposes because there are exceptions within those patters but most importantly you don't know when the pattern is going to flip. In 2005 we wouldn't have known the pattern was about to flip and go from a total torch to cold and snowy from Jan 20th on. Same in 2007. 2009 was dry all winter then we got that big snowstorm early March. 2015 flipped in February. 2016 flipped in January. 2018 flipped in March. 2019 flipped from good to bad in late January. 2022 was great in January and then flipped bad in Feb. It's pretty rare for a pattern to set in for the whole winter start to finish...sometimes a bad one does and we get 2020 and 2023. Sometimes a good one does and we get 1996/2003/2010/2014. But way way way more often the season is a mix and we get some snowy periods and some not snowy periods and end up somewhere between those few great years and few total dreg ones. And we don't know when the flips are about to happen until they do!

Yup! Showers and 33 in Simsbury at the moment

Really wished this one worked out but oh well

Wow. Weather is such an amazing thing to follow.

apparenlty the ICON is really trying hard

ICON is a delmarva special.

For what little it’s worth, a lot of SIGNIFICANTLY encouraging changes at the 500mb level on the 12z ICON Did we give up when the Germans bombed Cold Spring Harbor?

Now RGEM has my interest

Hello to 40 and mud

ICON whiff

NAM brings some mixed stuff in here for a while... globals keep it snow for the most part for much of Mass a least.