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  2. vortex95
    That's good historical info. The only item I would as in, is "how strong was El Nino in those years?" Strength of El Nino can be a big factor. And the presence of El Nino is not always a "slam dunk." The type of El Nino is important. Modoki El Nino, which has the highest SST anomalies in cntrl tropical Pacific rather than the ern, that can lead to an epic season, like 2004! Want to see an unexpected large-scale difference from other years going into a very strong El Nino. The area above 80N barely got above freezing this summer. See here: https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php No other summer since records began in 1958 has been this cold, and I look at other very strong El Ninos, and all got to a mean of 1 C at least for the summer. Since this is an avg over large area, 1 C is a significant in this case. So this begs the question, how could this impact things as to what we typically expect in a very strong El Nino? It might make no difference overall, but what about on more regional levels? And I am not just talking about Atlantic TCs later season, but other things like the upcoming winter for the CONUS? Is the AO, and by extension, the NAO, impacted? How that sets up or its phase in a given winter has big implications for NAMR!
  3. vortex95
    Another "dud season" record. 4.4 ACE units through 9/6 for the Atlantic is the lowest season-to-date ACE in the satellite era, and prior, going back to 1941. Given TC records are more incomplete as you go further back, this record today is even more outstanding, as historical seasonal ACE, prior to the satellite era especially, is mostly too low.
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  8. Yardstickgozinya
    Hopefully, this flushes out some grass and hydrilla because it's been a pain in the a** in the last few weeks.
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  11. GaWx
    I assume you know that the warmest month of the winter of 1982-3 in the E US, including SE, was Dec by a wide margin. It was a bonafide torch, the only month like that in the SE to NE. The remainder in the SE was pretty close to normal to slightly BN in some areas.
  12. TriPol
    Everyone should remember... in winter, it only takes one storm. One blizzard, threading the eye of the needle, is all we need to have a great season.
  13. jaxjagman
    You're definite talking about IMBY,while you had some freak strorm spawn up into the GOM into Feb of 83 the SE in most parts ran 4C AN
  14. rclab
    Ref: Accu Weather for Central Park, September 24th for the first low in the 50’s, October 21st for the first low in the 40’s, November 23rd for the first low in the 30’s ….. As always …..
  15. bristolri_wx
    https://dem.ri.gov/agriculture/caps-program-pests-spotted-lanternfly
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  17. WinstonSalemArlington
    Ahhh it feels so nice outside
  18. michsnowfreak
    The excitement of Fall is getting here. Regardless of what winter brings, Fall with its crisp air and color show is an amazing time of year for many of us. Its the perfect distraction for the pre-winter model circus, especially in a strong Nino year.
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    Warm Dec
  20. Maestrobjwa
    Yes to the second sentence, lol But people are about to find out how much of a problem Elias was. And if I had to bet...Alby stays. But if he doesn't, it's a shame. Dude never got the chance 90% of other rookie managers get. They should've fired Elias last year and started fresh THEN--but now they gotta humiliate somebody just coming in while cleaning house, smh
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I anticipate a very mild first half, with a stout PV, PAC jet and +NAO....a shift should occur during January which will begin as an AK ridge acting as the catalyst for the first real arctic air of the season, and also ultimately act to trigger big NAO blocking in Feb via wave 1 reflection.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    That actually isn't that bad....has you like 4-5" below average and me 5-6". I think we'd all take that. Makes more sense to the than the robust CANSIPS and early EURO run.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    SSW are overrated....they are often feast or famine....again, you don't need the PV to be decimated to get blocking. That is a misconception. W QBO obviously favors a stout PV, which makes it more impervious to heat propagation, so these seasons are prone to stratospheric reflection that can still get the job done. See latter January-early Feb 1983.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well aware....
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looking at the scale, you are right.....the colors make it look awful, but it's actually pretty reasonable...has me at like 5-6" under average, which is like mid-high 50s. Let me amend earlier what I said about a compromise.....def. prefer the EURO snowfall, though it could be light across the deep interior of NE.
  26. jaxjagman
    Just to add in 82-97-15,there has never been a SSWE into winter,left that out which should be noted
  27. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, the PV will probably pretty stout, but there is more than one way to skin a cat....ie produce intervals of high latitude blocking.
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