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Excellent point. I know of no sub-990 mb case in September for baroclinic deepening alone. Not that there has not been Nor'easter In Sep before, heck we get them in the summer sometimes, the sfc low typically doesn't get too deep. 995-1000 usually is the limit. This event from July 22, 1983 stands out as one of the more impressive sfc lows for mid summer close to New England. 15z satellite image -- low was about 990 mb at this time.

+11c has popped in the subsurface on TAO/Triton.. highest of the event so far.. still strengthening

Tomorrow will be see clouds increase. The probability of a significant impact on the immediate New York City area from a strong nor'easter has increased overnight and during the day today. Periods of wind-driven rain, some of which could be heavy are likely tomorrow night through the weekend. At present, New York City and nearby areas will likely see a storm total 1"-3" with locally higher amounts. Parts of Long Island could see 3"-5" of rain. Coastal erosion and flooding at high tide are likely. Some uncertainty still exists in terms of track and timing. However, it increasingly appears that the storm will be an impactful one. Temperatures will remain unseasonably cool through the weekend with highs mainly in the lower and middle 60s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.0°C for the week centered around September 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.73°C. Both ENSO regions have tied their all-time warmest anomalies. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -12.06 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.439 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 68% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.6° (0.6° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.6° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Yes, but it’s cool Don. I guess TBlizz didn’t see that run? That would be widespread 3 inches plus.

Yeah, the GFS ensembles have trended toward more +PNA in the long range.

18z Euro was pretty wet. Sorry if someone posted earlier.

Lol you just described a system that has tropical characteristics

Latest microwave for Fay. It has another window to do something. We'll see if the second time's the charm.

@CoastalWx is by far lopsided and the fully versed weenie guru for winter wx. He's kinda weak in svr local storms and TCs! When we worked at WSI, he would always defer to me for those topics! And his typical reply after I would explain a situation? "WE'LL SEE!" LOL. The biggest contribution I recall I did for him that he has actually acknowledged? We we discussing the 6/1/11 TOR event and the problem/issues w/ the Springfield warnings, and I said to Scott, "no excuse to hesitate, this day was screaming big a classic spinner day for New England -- situational awareness is huge leading up to such an event!" And he liked the term "situation awareness!"

Look at that first loop!!! That's 100% tropical. Look at that convection wrap tightly around the center. Beautiful. Riding right along the Gulf Stream. Perfect location.

The Oceans Calling music festival is this weekend in Ocean City. They just canceled the first day. Gonna be a huge economic hit if it all get canceled.

Wow, I had no idea there were STS in HURDAT2 that had winds in excess of 60 kt. Since NHC started declared ST systems regularly in the late 1990s, the has never been a "subtropical hurricane." The reasoning I heard is that if a ST system gets winds strong enough to reach hurricane-strength, it is can called fully tropical, which doesn't make any sense really. 65 kt is not some magic number that changes the structure of a storm. Many ET storms have sustained winds well over 65 kt, and there is nothing says they can't still have 65 kt when they go ST!

18z euro went off

Concerning @CoastalWx's "garbage model" and how it handles TCs... Given the RRFS is new, I am not sure it handles TCs. I asked the modeling group if it handles TCs well. They said it should, but they said ti defer to the HAFS and the like. This event will be a good test at least when it comes to ET to ST/T transition. The RRFS is about 10 mb deeper than the other models, and shows a tight inner core pressure gradient eventually. That indicates tropical structure.

I'm saving my arrows

This is a much "warmer" type ET to ST/T suggested transition. The ET surface low has developed in a more tropical-type atmosphere. As noted earlier, the low is located S of the 576 dm 1000-500 thickness line, and as it develops, a pool of 576 closes off over it. Also, initial ET development to ET peak to ST/T transition can occur very quickly at times. The system off the Mid-Atlantic/New England coasts in mid-January 2023 went ET to ST rather fast (personally I think this was tropical and a hurricane), developing a distinct, persistent eye and remarkably deep convection for a winter atmosphere. See sat loops here: https://x.com/WxTca/status/1615532584016162822 https://x.com/burgwx/status/1615099242728628231 If this can occur in January, there is no reason to think this can not occur here in September over significantly warmer SSTs and a less overall sharp baroclinic environment! The point being extraordinary/outlier patterns often result in extraordinary/outlier individual wx events, so we need to adjust/adapt for that and think outside the box in such cases.

This is a much "warmer" type ET to ST/T suggested transition. The ET surface low has developed in a more tropical-type atmosphere. As noted earlier, the low is located S of the 576 dm 1000-500 thickness line, and as it develops, a pool of 576 closes off over it. Also, initial ET development to ET peak to ST/T transition can occur very quickly at times. The system off the Mid-Atlantic/New England coasts in mid-January 2023 went ET to ST rather fast (personally I think this was tropical and a hurricane), developing a distinct, persistent eye and remarkably deep convection for a winter atmosphere. See sat loops here: https://x.com/WxTca/status/1615532584016162822 https://x.com/burgwx/status/1615099242728628231 If this can occur in January, there is no reason to think this can not occur here in September over significantly warmer SSTs and a less overall sharp baroclinic environment! The point being extraordinary/outlier patterns often result in extraordinary/outlier individual wx events, so we need to adjust/adapt for that and think outside the box in such cases.

I should've zigged when i zagged?

And bam there maps are showing stronger winds and worse coastal flooding finally.

Book a tee time. It'll rain. Hard.