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i hope. this thing over NY looks awfully suppressive

Nah. But at least you recognize potential from what you see.

It's beyond 240 so doesn't matter anyway since it's going to change, but the H5 map is def way different and more interesting than 12z so far for the Cape period

Totally understand that. We built 3 small sheds over the summer and I couldn't find the so shovels. (They were under the deck)

Bam now on the colder side. They cant make up their mind.

I am ready to call the Jan 20-21 the Ji storm. The Cape storm was Jan 15-16

positive change from what? sounds like 3 step backs from the 6z gfs

Looking more and more like the Miami rule's behaving for the 15th but it's the western ridge that's that's a problem. Too far W ... It's sort causing the trough components to dangle through the Lake/OV instead of digging. So we end up with the b-c axis with paltry wave running up along it instead of the bigger woofer. It may actually work out that way - which would probably drive winter storm enthusiasts to something barely restraining apoplexy ... haha. I mean with all do empathy ... you may never see 6" of wind whipping NEster again, huh That PNA ridge was biased west much of last winter. interesting anyway.

GFS might be trying to put some pieces into place for the period you like...let's see what she'll do

And we aren't in NY state at elevation downwind of Lake Ontario. Hell of a comparison lol

There is no way Louisiana scores for a second year in a row.

So the GFS is still a mess, but H5 is vastly different...seems like a positive change, but still a shitty surface

I haven't given up on mid month, but I just think the H5 look centered on the 20th is more impressive and conducive to a winter storm for our area- in particular the low heights in the 50-50 region vs anomalously high heights there for mid month. A 50-50 high doesnt work so well to keep surface HP in place to the north when a storm is moving in- that can work ok for places NW but even there it would probably be messy.

Pretty sure that was the year.

We live on the coastal plain for the most part.

Anyway, trof looks a little sharper so far on the GFS

we got 1.5 inches lol. they get that in tughill in 44 seconds

Trick in that solution will be whether there's a pulse of sufficiently low enough DPs loading into NYS-VT-NH ... even if we can get that down to say ALB-EEN-MHT that may be close enough. There's a front coming through around 00z Saturday and between 3- 9Z overnight there's CAA albeit not aggressive. I wouldn't normally comment on a marginal set up like that for ZR, just because it's a fragile set up and it's got 60 to 72 hours to go... however, there's a distinct rising PP across upstate NY-ME and it's nosing around the terrain and bowing the isobars into a dammed look...That means like today, a sneaky ageo flow is susceptible of getting going - if/when coming out of even a -1C DP source that's good for ice at least down to the border towns. edit I see NAM cute pink paint is indeed into interior even down here. CNE obviously higher odds

'Dumb' plants. Easily tricked into thinking its Spring lol.

I don't remember that winter particularly well although I think there was a day we had a good, solid glaze and after school we played on a grassy hill which had become a sledding hill, no hills needed. I would have loved to see the meltdown on this forum in January. KBOS had 34" of snow, a -8 anomaly and ended the month with 3" otg (was at 16 mid-month). Jan 15-21 had lows at Logan below 10 every day, yet somehow lost 8" of snow, because two of those days had highs in the mid-40s and 1" of +RA. And if that's not bad enough, during that same time period ORH went -12 1 -1 45 -2 35 -8 4 Imagine someone telling you that over the course of four days, ORH was going to be below 0 every night, two days won't climb out of the singles, and, oh, yeah, there was going to be an inch of rain. Toaster sales must have been through the roof.

Panic room open for some, jumpers are standing in the door.

Holy ridge

I believe GEPS outscore GEFS. I wonder why we pay as much attention to the GEFS as we do.

No lol

I generally agree with this.