All Activity

The surface-level weather effects from a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event in the United States typically last for 2 to 6 weeks on average. [1] While a major SSW event drastically disrupts the polar vortex high up in the stratosphere, its effects do not impact ground weather immediately. Instead, there is a 10- to 20-day time lag as the atmospheric changes ripple downward to the surface, causing the jet stream to become wavy and unstable. [1, 2, 3] Once those effects arrive, the impacts on U.S. weather patterns include: Prolonged Cold Spells: Rather than a brief cold snap, the weak polar vortex patterns lock in atmospheric blocks that can extend below-average temperatures for several weeks. [1, 2] Increased Storminess: A wavy jet stream frequently shifts the storm track, increasing the likelihood of extreme precipitation and winter storms. [1, 2] Regional Variation: An SSW event does not guarantee uniform cold across the entire country. For instance, a collapsed or split polar vortex often unleashes severe cold into regions like the Northern Plains or the Midwest, while other regions like the Eastern Seaboard can occasionally experience temporary warming depending on exactly where the cold air mass migrates. Also 2009 -2010 featured a moderate to Strong El Nino BUT not as strong as this one. Along with that there was an SSW event in mid to late November and we ended up with 12 Inches of snow in December in NYC and January we had a break and ended up with 2 inches BUT we all remember what happened in February 2010 -36 Inches of snow in NYC. So 2009- 2010 is now an analog year. [1, 2, 3] The previous expectations of a back loaded winter by many might turn into a front and back loaded winter with a break in the middle in January - time will tell

I have come to believe strongly that "high uncertainty" means an absolute certainty that an 80% chance of precip will be manifested as wind and clouds, with a slight and temporary increase in humidity, for an hour or two.

I’ve seen talk of it in the ENSO forum and from Eric Webber that 97-98 is very much on the table. Expect to see my name near the top of the snowfall contest spreadsheet.

is this one storm or the entire winter?

Brewers were the best team the entire year. They might have the best bullpen in the history of the MLB.

this is the longest temperate stretch of weather I've experienced maybe ever in this region.

Well, even when it is epic for @CoastalWx in Weymouth. He gets two 20"+ storm last season, which he has not seen before, and still finds excuses to complain! It's along the same lines as, "the fcst was for 3 ft and I only got 2! WORST FCST EV-A!"

If only @CoastalWx could be so overjoyed from convection!

I'm not a huge SAI guy, but I heard both SCE and SAI are at record levels....noteworthy, anyway if true.

crazy global temp anomaly

i've had it saved

how long did it take for you to scroll all the threads to find that image

i paid 8 dollars for this shit

And it started on hard grounders that found holes too...crazy and brutal if you're the Rays! Always thought the Brewers were gonna have the edge here...was kinda rooting against the Rays anyway, lol Although I have a lot of respect for their organization...but still a rival

Mom’s cousin’s friend got this pic of the moon behind Nubble the other night. I know there’s lots of pics out there of it.

You listen to this dude a lot? How do you stand it? Lol But yeah he's right here...ya get the feeling one or both are out of here after this season. ....If we want a new GM it may be better if we miss the playoffs this season. Biscotti can't be happy with what he's seeing so far.

Watching the Brewers reminds me of when I was a senior in high school back in 1982. The Brewers came to Memorial Stadium with a 3 game lead on the final weekend of the season. The Birds swept a twinight doubleheader on Friday and then won big on Saturday, setting up the division championship on Sunday afternoon. It was also Earl Weaver's final game. (at least the first time) Milwaukee won big, but the O's came back the following year and won it all. I was 18 at the time. I'm now 61 and still waiting for another World Series in Baltimore. Sigh.

In the 4 previous very strong El Nino years, Last TS or HU formation date 1982 - 9/30 1991 - 10/31 1997 - 10/14 2015 - 11/8 So odds would suggest we are done for the season. Nothing apparent on the models for the next week.