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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
mitchnick replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
A tug of war between higher temps vs. copious precip. -
EURO seems to favor the interior for January, kind of like 1987 and 2003, and then a coastal track for February...the type that @dryslothates, which gets shunted eastward by a block, as the Canadian ridge intensifies and presses.
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Septorcher 2026 Discussion - Endless Summer
weatherwiz replied to Damage In Tolland's topic in New England
Looks like the ridge is finding a new home just in time for winter -
2026 C and E Pacific tropical activity
NorthHillsWx replied to GaWx's topic in Tropical Headquarters
They aren’t done yet. Norbert looks like it will at least threaten the islands. Crazy Nino -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Best ENSO analog def. looks like 1997, but I still like 1982 better as a seasonal analog. -
Septorcher 2026 Discussion - Endless Summer
dendrite replied to Damage In Tolland's topic in New England
0.74” overnight. We take. Muggy this morning. Min of 65° Not 100% from the migraines so still limiting screen time. I’ll try to tackle PM responses when I can. -
Yeah you weren't kidding! I finally got around to getting them last night and putting them out. This morning I come down and there are ants scrambling in and out of the bait traps. Hundreds! I told the wife just leave them alone and see what happens by the end of the weekend.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Hopefully that gap closes a bit more, but it will be tough...maybe get it to .3. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Guidance is def. coming into better agreement on this remaining pretty east-based, as the CANSIPS is now in better agreement with the EURO in that regard, but I still think it tries to become more equally distributed once it peaks....but probably gets placed in the east-based bin when all said in done. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
PhiEaglesfan712 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I'm not sure if anyone posted the RONI and ONI values, but for JJA: RONI: +1.4 ONI: +1.8 -
Septorcher 2026 Discussion - Endless Summer
Damage In Tolland replied to Damage In Tolland's topic in New England
Hopefully that rain Sunday morning works out and doesn’t end up a S coast special -
Congrats Apps and OHRV.
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Congrats DC?
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Septorcher 2026 Discussion - Endless Summer
CoastalWx replied to Damage In Tolland's topic in New England
Looks like a two day mild down before the equinox before we warm again. We embrace the warmth. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
@bluewaveInteresting how the EURO seasonal likes the OHRV for snowfall...maybe due to some modification of the STJ that you have referenced....also fits with a PDO that never goes wholesale positive. -
It's easy to look at the color scheme and want to take a plunge off of the Tobin, but it's not bad at all and fits with the more fruitful super El Nino scenarios.
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Not bad at all for down here
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Makes sense to me...entirely reasonable.
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Showers here
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Sept. EURO seasonal has DJF snowfall about 9" below average inside of rt 128, and 6" below average outside. I have no issue with that forecast. Western New England is 4-5" below.
