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i guess they are discounting the euro somewhat.

Blizzard warning issued for the southern ct coast

HOLY SHIT!!

WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations between 13 and 18 inches. Winds gusting as high as 55 mph.* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut and southeast New York.* WHEN...From 6 AM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday.* IMPACTS...Visibilities may drop below 1/4 mile due to falling and blowing snow. Whiteout conditions are expected and will make travel treacherous and potentially life-threatening. The strong winds and weight of snow on tree limbs may down power lines and could cause sporadic power outages. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes. Strong winds could cause tree damage.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strongest winds and blizzard conditions are expected to Sunday night into Monday. However, snow will move in during the morning and afternoon hours.

Oh wow, didn’t make it to Rockland

NYC LI westchester coastal CT

For who neighbor?

Holy shit blizzard warning!!!

Where was it last run?

That's so odd that they've knocked 2 inches off of the forecast when the models (except the EURO) have gotten better.

4" even. Still snowing...just had a got burst ack on another 1/2" or so...

Got it. Appreciate the insight

Upton's response (as of 2:15 AM) is to advertise the following for NYC: Low End: 1" Forecasted: 9" High End: 21" What's a 20" spread amongst friends?

Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz - retired longtime TV met in Philly

That detail is probably shared by most guidance but the outbreak of moderate snow in KS is the main point, that is a good sign that phasing is underway and the energy is not currently that far behind the new location of the primary. It's a pressure jump situation for the primary but that factor alone is not telling me much because all guidance starts to develop the energy from the Carolinas.

I’ll add that I’m posting in this particular sub forum because I’m considering a chase to your specific area, depending on how things evolve over the next 12-24 hours.

I haven’t been paying enough attention to the minute details to fully understand what you mean here. The storm in southern UT-CO you’re referring to… what’s the significance of it dying out in NW TX to our storm and it unfolding more like the GFS? (TIA!)

I think that’s exactly right, and it really does put forecasters in a no-win spot. As we get inside about 48 hours, higher-resolution, short-range guidance starts to carry more weight. Models like the NAM, HRRR, and other mesoscale systems can better resolve banding, localized deformation zones, and boundary-layer thermal structure. That’s where snowfall totals can swing dramatically over small distances.

I have no idea who “hurricane” happens to be, but I’m not surprised that they are “hugging the EURO”—as it’s the main fall-back approach for most forecasters. That’s not meant to be demeaning, but rather a reflection of the general consensus due to the EURO’s general superior 500 mb scores. That said, there’s still an ample amount of time for relatively significant synoptic changes to materialize that could change the current model consensus considerably. Right now, a blended approach amongst the Euro/UKMET/GFS/CMC/NAM would be best, in my opinion—which doesn’t simply place the latest Euro solution above all others.

I saw someone mention this earlier, and I totally agree. If the mets predict 6-12 and we get 18-24, the general public won't really remember it. 6-12 is generally "enough" to get most people to avoid travel and change plans. However, if they predict 18-24 and we get 4, the public won't forget it. They will be unhappy that they adjusted their plans for a "minor" event and will call this a bust. It's a real tough spot to be in as a forecaster

Hopefully it’s a full rug pull up here so I don’t have to clear 3-5”

Did anyone post the 00z rufus?

Got a whole 3 hours of sleep last night

Agree. It has pretty consistently been between the GFS and Euro. The current 00z track is still great. What I'm not sure about, and maybe someone has the answer here, is how well it performs with QPF. My understanding is that the AI models run at a lower resolution and have a tendency to smooth things out. Assuming that is true, I would seriously consider track and rely on mesos to work out the QPF.

Euro isn’t like how it was back in the day, not saying its wrong but something has to give.