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  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Oh, pretty please...this would represent an interplanetary orgie for me. Don't get me wrong, I'm sure it will come with some unforeseen, dystopian (as John would say)externality, but we are getting those anyway with the hockey-stick rate of CC, so what the hell...may as well get some snow and cold while we perish.
  3. SACRUS
    Quickly to 89 here
  4. csnavywx
    Might be sooner. In a separate interview the author said it may start earlier with the sub-polar gyre and we're already hugging the upper end of the equiv. warming rates in the paper.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'll take the over on "barely any snow" in Michigan this coming winter, but a +10 month would not shock me.
  6. dendrite
    He used to post the “Steffi” here from time to time.
  7. LakePaste25
    that’s why super ninos all have below normal snow here. Every month is usually greater than +3. No room for week+ long lake snow blitz’s to save the season.
  8. LakePaste25
    Here as well, at least on a daily basis. +3 or +4 in the monthly is probably the upper limit here where I can get a week of big lake snows while the rest of the month is a torch. Higher than +4, we’re getting into “the whole month is shot outside of a some minor/medium snowfalls” territory.
  9. forkyfork
    you are going to get at least one +10 month and barely any snow
  10. vortex95
    Andrew in Aug 1992 was among the "luckiest" intense hurricanes I have seen. It struggled for days N of the Caribbean due to an upper low. In fact, one could argue it actually lost its sfc circulation for a time as recon found only 1015 mb pressure! FL winds were still near hurricane-force though due to gradient from high pressure to the N, so they keep it going. But then the upper low moved away to the SW and a strong 500 mb high built due N, resulting in nearly ideal conditions, and we saw what happened. 1992 was a "quiet" hurricane season overall, but reanalysis has shown 4-5 systems that were at least of min TS strength (two hurricanes) that were never declared operationally. They will all likely get added once the reanalysis project reaches this year.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    2060? Damn, I'll be 80....lets speed that up-
  12. kdxken
    Is this the one where runaway iceberg got smoked?
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well in my area, it really needs to be a bit cooler than average to get big snows, but I'm not suggesting that.
  14. michsnowfreak
    Sometimes people confuse the discussion of wintry potential and temp departures as if the two have to go hand in hand. Discussion of above avg temps in the mean has never wavered in this thread, even when pointing out models that disagree (ie Cansips). A cool stat out of Marquette, MI. Their snowiest winter on record, 319.8" in 2001-02, was also their 3rd warmest winter on record.
  15. vortex95
    I bet there is another meso model out there that has strengths of the NAM. Just we have been so used to the NAM, we have not being forced otherwise to look! So now we will be looking. @CoastalWx misses having access to the IBM GRAF! LOL.
  16. michsnowfreak
    I will say, all things considered and all the discussion in this thread....I am not as worried about this winter locally as I would a normal strong Nino. Of course, I still expect an overall subpar winter. Just not as subpar as strong Ninos can be. Its going to be fascinating (and likely at times frustrating) to see how the nino does affect overall weather patterns.
  17. csnavywx
    That "snap back" effect may be more pronounced than currently imagined: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-026-02730-w
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is my favored scenario attm.
  19. Today
  20. ORH_wxman
    If we get some sustained -AO periods, I think we'll have some good chances for big events....I'm def favoring a warm winter, but we know El Ninos can also be really schizophrenic....you could have obscene warmth for 3-4 weeks and then get pummeled for 2-3 weeks too (this happened in the '82-'83 winter). I think the best hope for big snow this winter will be to get into a super juiced Nino pattern while we have a favorable AO....and then you end up cleaning up for a 3 week period.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    My crude theory is that the planet ultimately finds a way to achieve some semblance of an equilibrium....and this unprecedented El Nino is a testament to that.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    No one is disputing above normal temps...at least in the NE.
  23. Windspeed
    A long-tracking hurricane? Maybe. Perhaps a few long-tracking TCs regardless. One that remains powerful enough to stack ACE? There in lies the problem, or lack of a problem, depending on perspective. Yes, Joaquin occurred during an El Niño season. But you should read up on that TC's meteorological history. Joaquin did not form in the MDR, nor was it even associated with an AEW. That particular TC formed out of a retrograding mid-to-upper cutoff interacting with a remnant surface trough. Despite its stall and eventual high-end intensity, such a system doesn't happen with frequency even during active seasons. My previous post is merely stating, sure, climatology might get us a hurricane, or even a few of them this season. I just doubt we'll see any CV majors cross the MDR and rack up significant ACE with walls of shear. Something might develop, may even flirt with hurricane status, or become a hurricane, but it will probably struggle to reach or maintain major status very long, if at all, to pump up those numbers. Mind you, these comments should also not be confused with significant landfalls or impacts. That could still occur. Yada, yada, yada, it only takes one. At any rate, we're quickly approaching the heart of the season. We shall see.
  24. csnavywx
    Ironically, if the increase in Nino variance extends to CP Ninos (as some CMIP6 models suggest may happen soon), then we may see enhanced CP episodes in addition to EP episodes, which ofc will be far more effective for cold winter patterns here. Add in PV disruption via a shoaling Atlantic water into the Arctic (setting up an increasing amount of ridging) and that may also constructively interfere.
  25. michsnowfreak
    Hes talking about winters in general, in typical Tip fashion, not just the coming winter. If he wants "a steady diet of nickle and dime storms that add appeal as an active winter pattern" then he needs to go back to his old stomping grounds in west Michigan. That happens very frequently. And BOTH the Great Lakes and New England had one of their all-time snowiest decades on record in the 2010s, which is not ancient history. I sometimes think people long for courier and ives paintings over reality when remembering winters of yore lol. Remember, slightly warmer winter temps in some places are BETTER for snowfall, not worse.
  26. ORH_wxman
    Currently 8th lowest on NSIDC area. (GaWx has been posting AMSR2 area which is good too, but for consistency purposes, I track NSIDC area since methodology is unchanged since 1979.) Chances of top 5 now are getting slimmer by the day. Too much extended cold on the ESS/Beaufort side this season. You usually want a strong start there so that you are eating away at the CAB in late July and early August rather than wasting those few precious final weeks of higher insolation trying to melt out remnant ice in the Chukchi/ESS/Beaufort.
  27. A-L-E-K
    feels like yesterday when the twin cities was crushing it
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