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Mike Masco THE EARLY WINTER MODEL SIGNALS ARE GETTING VERY INTERESTING... I know, I know... WAY too early! But we've reached the point in the forecast calendar where I start looking at the broader trends in the CFSv2 to see what type of atmospheric configuration the models are beginning to latch onto. This is NOT the time to start predicting snowfall totals or declaring the winter warm or cold. Instead, I'm watching three major players at the 500mb and 1000mb levels that could eventually shape how this winter unfolds: GREENLAND BLOCKING — OR LACK THEREOF Where does blocking develop, and is it focused west or east of Greenland? This is one of the biggest variables for the East Coast. A favorable blocking pattern can slow storms near the coast while helping cold Canadian air press south. This signal often isn't fully realized until we're already entering or exiting a blocking cycle, and its impact will be closely tied to the strength and behavior of the Polar Vortex. This becomes especially important from late December through mid-February. THE ALEUTIAN / NORTH PACIFIC PATTERN I'm watching whether the height field near the Aleutian Islands trends stronger or weaker. This signal should become much clearer by late November and can have major implications for how much Pacific air floods into the country. A stronger Pacific influence could overwhelm the northern half of the U.S. with milder-than-normal air — something I'll be watching VERY closely. THE SUBTROPICAL JET — THE BIG ONE So far, this has been the most compelling signal and exactly the type of feature you'd expect during an El Niño winter. You can have all the cold air in the world, but you can't get a snowstorm without moisture. A juiced-up subtropical jet could provide plenty of storm opportunities this winter. Right now, I think this is the major wildcard for producing some BIG storms, potentially favoring the Ohio Valley into western Pennsylvania, with the strongest signal across the southern U.S. The million-dollar question for the Northeast: Can the cold air meet the moisture at the right time? That's where Greenland blocking, the Polar Vortex and the Canadian pattern become incredibly important. Again — this is NOT a winter forecast. It's an early look at the atmospheric players I'm watching as the pieces slowly begin to come together. Plenty will change between now and December... but the early signals are certainly worth watching.

Mike Masco THE EARLY WINTER MODEL SIGNALS ARE GETTING VERY INTERESTING... I know, I know... WAY too early! But we've reached the point in the forecast calendar where I start looking at the broader trends in the CFSv2 to see what type of atmospheric configuration the models are beginning to latch onto. This is NOT the time to start predicting snowfall totals or declaring the winter warm or cold. Instead, I'm watching three major players at the 500mb and 1000mb levels that could eventually shape how this winter unfolds: GREENLAND BLOCKING — OR LACK THEREOF Where does blocking develop, and is it focused west or east of Greenland? This is one of the biggest variables for the East Coast. A favorable blocking pattern can slow storms near the coast while helping cold Canadian air press south. This signal often isn't fully realized until we're already entering or exiting a blocking cycle, and its impact will be closely tied to the strength and behavior of the Polar Vortex. This becomes especially important from late December through mid-February. THE ALEUTIAN / NORTH PACIFIC PATTERN I'm watching whether the height field near the Aleutian Islands trends stronger or weaker. This signal should become much clearer by late November and can have major implications for how much Pacific air floods into the country. A stronger Pacific influence could overwhelm the northern half of the U.S. with milder-than-normal air — something I'll be watching VERY closely. THE SUBTROPICAL JET — THE BIG ONE So far, this has been the most compelling signal and exactly the type of feature you'd expect during an El Niño winter. You can have all the cold air in the world, but you can't get a snowstorm without moisture. A juiced-up subtropical jet could provide plenty of storm opportunities this winter. Right now, I think this is the major wildcard for producing some BIG storms, potentially favoring the Ohio Valley into western Pennsylvania, with the strongest signal across the southern U.S. The million-dollar question for the Northeast: Can the cold air meet the moisture at the right time? That's where Greenland blocking, the Polar Vortex and the Canadian pattern become incredibly important. Again — this is NOT a winter forecast. It's an early look at the atmospheric players I'm watching as the pieces slowly begin to come together. Plenty will change between now and December... but the early signals are certainly worth watching.

Warm, boredom, and stein as far as the eye can see. So much for redoing lawn this month. El Paso climate continues.

Seems like right after labor Day Summer disappears quickly, until then:

49 this morning with some fog.

55 when I left the house. Love this time of year.

53/51 this "septorcher" morn'

First HDD since the beginning of June. And so It begins.

That's only the first 6 days of a 30-day month. It obviously didn't hold on to August's heat long enough. However, the changes are coming. Here are the 3 ensemble temp anomaly averages for the 5 days ending the 22nd/23rd of September. Needless to say, there's another 7 days in the month beyond this period to go into the mix. That's not to say the forecast will verify, because it may not. But I don't think using the first 6 days of the month for verification is predictive for a month.

A tad chilly out this morning!

Taken from the Nws the forecast discussion. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CTP&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off By Wednesday night, a low pressure system will be moving across northern Ontario with a cold front extending south through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region. The pressure gradient will support an uptick in synoptic scale/gradient winds Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. Expect gusts into the 20s on the hilltops and also in the SE. A gust near 30MPH is possible on the tops of the Laurels Wed night just before the front. The cold front will spark SHRA/TSRA, with the majority occurring before the front passes later Wed night N and Thurs in the S. The risk for severe weather will depend on the magnitude of a shortwave trough racing through the region and any associated jet dynamics in play. Vertical wind profiles look unidirectional, so the primary hazard would be from damaging winds. Timing of the cold front and dewpoints largely staying out of the upper 60s to lower 70s range are the 2 main reasons to think storms will not get too crazy, unlike recent events. Timing of the cold front has been similar the last few days. SPC outlook currently has a MRGL risk area for Wed-night painted across the NW half of the CWA. Seems in line with previous forecasts. The new Day3 (Thur-night) outlook barely has the general thunder area into the CWA - basically along and S of the PA Turnpike. The current WPC outlook for Thurs paints a SLGT risk of excessive rainfall over the SW quarter of PA - including the Laurels. However, it will be difficult to squeeze out heavy rain without thunder/deep convection. So, we`ll chat with WPC about the threat risk. High pressure builds behind the cold front, giving way to a dry and sunny Friday. There could be a few PM SHRA/TSRA Saturday and/or Sunday afternoons, especially over the western mtns. A more-active (wetter) pattern is in store for Mon-Tues. But, the flat upper ridge over the southern half of the CONUS will make it difficult for deep moisture to make it into PA ahead of any shots of atmos forcing. The second half of the week probably ends dry as the upper ridge pumps up over the central CONUS.