John1122 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I don't get how the cold sets up over us and points south and east but the storm track is a thousand miles away. But it does the same in Arkansas, Oklahoma and Texas and they seem to always get snow/frozen precip with a storm tracking just to their south and east. Historically Arkansas is less snowy than most of Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The GFS is such a tease Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I know, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Just for fun, 0z GFS: Hour 168 Hour 216 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freezing Fog Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freezing Fog Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Just walked into the break room at work and over heard two coworkers having a conversation about the weather. One of them said...."My husband said we have three more snows this year, and the third one is gonna be a blizzard". I didn't have the heart to correct the poor souls, but I sure wish I knew where they were getting their kool-aid!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvskelton Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Just walked into the break room at work and over heard two coworkers having a conversation about the weather. One of them said...."My husband said we have three more snows this year, and the third one is gonna be a blizzard". I didn't have the heart to correct the poor souls, but I sure wish I knew where they were getting their kool-aid!!! I think if you take the square root of the frosts in August, multiply it by the average of the length of black stripes seen on wooly worms and then divide it by the number of yellow jacket nests spotted in the ground, you'll come up with that figure exactly! Which incidently, is about as accurate as this year's model runs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I think if you take the square root of the frosts in August, multiply it by the average of the length of black stripes seen on wooly worms and then divide it by the number of yellow jacket nests spotted in the ground, you'll come up with that figure exactly! Which incidently, is about as accurate as this year's model runs! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 If none of these events pan out over the next week or two, I'm punting winter and going into full blown spring/garden mode. I think this went down as a top 10 cold January, but I only had about .71 total qpf fall as frozen. Thanks to two events with 30:1-40:1 snowfall ratios I had just over 12 inches of snow. About 2/3rds my normal for the season. If it doesn't happen the rest of the winter, this will be a winter without a 4+ inch snow event here, which is actually fairly uncommon. But we can get big events, even through March, so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Well, it might be a weather model, but dang...GBO...love Butch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 .....And the Winter Olympics. I am pretty pumped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Keep watching all the little systems (ull,clipper) headed our way in the Valley and then get assaulted by HP.It's happened all winter,makes it to other states but says screw Tn,..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 It's funny looking back on last year, we all were begging for blocking and couldn't really buy any all winter long. Then I remember vividly the last weekend in March, I was camping at the Cedars of Lebanon State Park. We'd planned it way in advance and were going hell or high water. Turned out to be high water with epic heavy rain for several days, nary a break the whole time we were there. As I sat under a tarp, with a beer in my hand, freezing my butt off I remember thinking to myself: "Weeeelp, we finally got our negative NAO." Son of a gun had just hit -1.7 a few days prior. A real slap in the face. Hopefully we can manage to get some blocking love a tad bit earlier this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Epics now and ice storm for TN on the 0z GFS. Starts at hour 126-174. Crazy, yet possible. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 WEENIE RUN!!! WEENIE RUN!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Winter Olympics - I was going to ask you guys if you love them just for the snow. I do, though the sports are neat, too. Signing Day - sign me up for this coming Tuesday as is and I'm happy for the year. I promise this time. And Go Butch! I couldn't sleep last night so I just read a book and watched every minute of their big signing show. I still haven't been to bed but I'm running out of gas. I want to stay awake for the Euro, though, if John or someone in the SE Forum is up to post what it says. The players in the 2015 class in the state of Tennessee are supposed to be better than this year's were. We already have great headway with them. Middle TN is becoming a football power area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Hey Stovepipe, I checked both Farmer's Almanacs for you. I believe next Tuesday is supposed to be heavy precip. It just didn't say what kind so I'll take snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Hey Stovepipe, I checked both Farmer's Almanacs for you. I believe next Tuesday is supposed to be heavy precip. It just didn't say what kind so I'll take snow. Thanks! Maybe the NWS should start taking a blend of 30% Almanac, 30% wooly worms, and 30% models for their forecasts. Meanwhile, the DGEX is back on board for us: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I want my 0z GFS run back....................lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I want my 0z GFS run back....................lol. Is that clipper up there what is scooting our high out so fast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Is that clipper up there what is scooting our high out so fast? Part of it is that. Part of it is that the GFS has slowed the system down by about 12 hours. Don't take anything literally at this point. Its bad for your health. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I'm just looking at the ensembles until inside 48 hours until this progressive pac energy dominated pattern ends. I don't know how you forecast blind, but that's essentially what's going on right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Part of it is that. Part of it is that the GFS has slowed the system down by about 12 hours. Don't take anything literally at this point. Its bad for your health. Thanks mundie. And good advice, this will wiggle around a lot I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Just for the record, I'd like to see a high trend stronger and longer instead of weaker or quicker in moving out..............just ONCE in my lifetime. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Is that clipper up there what is scooting our high out so fast? Sorry, don't know how I missed this Stove. I think it has more to do with the pattern just to the northeast. If the 50/50 is in place it will effectively block the high from moving out too quickly. It can't help though...................having a robust shortwave pushing it and eroding the cold air available on the western flank with a developing Miller A coming out of the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Sorry, don't know how I missed this Stove. I think it has more to do with the pattern just to the northeast. If the 50/50 is in place it will effectively block the high from moving out too quickly. It can't help though...................having a robust shortwave pushing it and eroding the cold air available on the western flank with a developing Miller A coming out of the gulf. Thanks Nut. We finally get Clipperfest '14 behind us, yet they are still up their giving us the finger, screwing with our storms... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 12z Euro mixing things up a bit. This is Monday afternoon: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.