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MEI Analogs


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MEI Value

mar/Apr: -1.495

closest actuals

1955: -1.556

1974: -1.684

1976 : -1.192

1956: -1.157

1967: -1.067

1999 : -1.026

Cloest trends

2011 -1.654 -1.552 -1.548 -1.495

1976 -1.614 -1.394 -1.251 -1.192

2008 -.984 -1.389 -1.619 -.945

1956 -1.445 -1.306 -1.399 -1.157

1999 -1.109 -1.219 -1.043 -1.026

1950 -1.046 -1.148 -1.287 -1.058

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  • 1 month later...

Apr/May value : -.368

Closest actual:

1978 : -.383

2008 : -.39

1960: -.324

1961 : -.29

1951 : -.264

closest trends:

2011 -1.654 -1.552 -1.548 -1.495 -.368

1976 -1.614 -1.394 -1.251 -1.192 -.498

1951 -1.069 -1.194 -1.216 -.434 -.264

2008 -.984 -1.389 -1.619 -.945 -.39

1999 -1.109 -1.219 -1.043 -1.026 -.727

1989 -1.144 -1.297 -1.051 -.844 -.501

2000 -1.172 -1.228 -1.117 -.525 .118

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2008-09 is looking like an interesting analog for Winter 2011-12. Most models and common sense say we'll be in a slightly cold ENSO state, though probably not as cold as that year, but close enough. Similar PDO configuration, blocking patterns present, warm AMO, following a stronger La Niña. I already see a lot in common.

Although it wasn't a blockbuster, I'd happily take a repeat of 08-09 here in Westchester. I know the latitude gradient was sharp and other areas in NYC metro didn't do quite as well, but Dobbs Ferry had 45" snowfall, almost 120% of normal. The big storms were 10" on 3/2 (which I missed) and 8" on 12/19 (a nice snowfall to come home to from college, first big storm in a drought period). Nothing to rival this year, but those are solid storms for any winter. January was frigid, 4.2F below average at Central Park, with 16/9 on January 16th and 22/6 the following day. We reached -20F where I was in Vermont at college and had a beautiful snowpack in the Green Mountains, absolutely a great month for winter hiking, skiing, and photography. Late January and early February also had another cold spell...I came home to lows in the mid single digits after dealing with the brutal weather in Vermont. We didn't have the massive coastals or snowpack of a great winter like 10-11, but it was a solid cold season. The lowest high temperature in Dobbs Ferry this year was 19F, relatively weak; January 2009 had one day with a high of only 14F, and I need that arctic cold to consider a winter top echelon.

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  • 4 weeks later...

May/Jun: -.225

closest actuals

1960: -.243

1989: -.278

2000: -.162

1984: -.152

1985: -.103

2001: -.082

closest trends:

YEAR DECJAN JANFEB FEBMAR MARAPR APRMAY MAYJUN

2011 -1.654 -1.552 -1.548 -1.495 -.368 -.225

1976 -1.614 -1.394 -1.251 -1.192 -.498 .32

1999 -1.109 -1.219 -1.043 -1.026 -.727 -.449

2008 -.984 -1.389 -1.619 -.945 -.39 .102

1989 -1.144 -1.297 -1.051 -.844 -.501 -.278

2000 -1.172 -1.228 -1.117 -.525 .118 -.162

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2008-09 is looking like an interesting analog for Winter 2011-12. Most models and common sense say we'll be in a slightly cold ENSO state, though probably not as cold as that year, but close enough. Similar PDO configuration, blocking patterns present, warm AMO, following a stronger La Niña. I already see a lot in common.

Although it wasn't a blockbuster, I'd happily take a repeat of 08-09 here in Westchester. I know the latitude gradient was sharp and other areas in NYC metro didn't do quite as well, but Dobbs Ferry had 45" snowfall, almost 120% of normal. The big storms were 10" on 3/2 (which I missed) and 8" on 12/19 (a nice snowfall to come home to from college, first big storm in a drought period). Nothing to rival this year, but those are solid storms for any winter. January was frigid, 4.2F below average at Central Park, with 16/9 on January 16th and 22/6 the following day. We reached -20F where I was in Vermont at college and had a beautiful snowpack in the Green Mountains, absolutely a great month for winter hiking, skiing, and photography. Late January and early February also had another cold spell...I came home to lows in the mid single digits after dealing with the brutal weather in Vermont. We didn't have the massive coastals or snowpack of a great winter like 10-11, but it was a solid cold season. The lowest high temperature in Dobbs Ferry this year was 19F, relatively weak; January 2009 had one day with a high of only 14F, and I need that arctic cold to consider a winter top echelon.

Do you think the nao will be similar to that year or more +/-? Warm AMO correlates to -NAO a weak la nina would be better than neutral for us.

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May/Jun: -.225

closest actuals

1960: -.243

1989: -.278

2000: -.162

1984: -.152

1985: -.103

2001: -.082

closest trends:

YEAR DECJAN JANFEB FEBMAR MARAPR APRMAY MAYJUN

2011 -1.654 -1.552 -1.548 -1.495 -.368 -.225

1976 -1.614 -1.394 -1.251 -1.192 -.498 .32

1999 -1.109 -1.219 -1.043 -1.026 -.727 -.449

2008 -.984 -1.389 -1.619 -.945 -.39 .102

1989 -1.144 -1.297 -1.051 -.844 -.501 -.278

2000 -1.172 -1.228 -1.117 -.525 .118 -.162

Wow, a wide variety of winters in those lists.

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Again we're sort of seeing the milder winters in that list (1989 and 2001) being near the solar maximum....1984 and 1985 were not snowy but they were also not warm....minus the insanity that was the 2 week period in December 1984.

SG do you think closest actuals is better or closest trends? Im thinking trends.....

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With the actuals, three of them are bunched up in the 80s, with two in the 00s and one lone ranger in 1960-- a very good lead in though lol.

The trends are more mixed.... shocked that 1976 is in there, I guess that would have been a possibility if we were going into a weak nino lol.

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The trends are more mixed.... shocked that 1976 is in there, I guess that would have been a possibility if we were going into a weak nino lol.

It's highly unlikely now that we'll see any sort of El Niño...the Pacific has been cooling steadily, especially in the Western ENSO regions.

Current SSTs:

post-475-0-82911700-1310539680.gif

Last week's SSTs:

post-475-0-46594200-1310539706.gif

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Do you think a weak la nina is more likely than neutral, Nate?

Slightly, yes. I think a moderate La Niña is not out of the question either, but unlikely. Models are really intensifying the trade winds in the coming days (blue), especially in the western ENSO regions that have been cooling quickly in recent times:

post-475-0-33762800-1310540064.png

Also, the subsurface is cooling rapidly, with -3C anomalies showing up between 140-150W at 100m depth:

post-475-0-88694700-1310540135.gif

SOI has also started to spike again, indicating a Niña-like pressure pattern in the Pacific. Here are the last three days...

July 11: +12.68

July 12: +16.19

July 13: +17.85

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Slightly, yes. I think a moderate La Niña is not out of the question either, but unlikely. Models are really intensifying the trade winds in the coming days (blue), especially in the western ENSO regions that have been cooling quickly in recent times:

post-475-0-33762800-1310540064.png

Also, the subsurface is cooling rapidly, with -3C anomalies showing up between 140-150W at 100m depth:

post-475-0-88694700-1310540135.gif

SOI has also started to spike again, indicating a Niña-like pressure pattern in the Pacific. Here are the last three days...

July 11: +12.68

July 12: +16.19

July 13: +17.85

Pretty much on the same page. I think a weak nina is likely, and would not be surprised to see low end moderate. Warmest I can see right now is cold neutral (-0.3/-0.4c)

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  • 4 weeks later...

MEI Value

Jun/Jul: -.147

closest actuals

1985: -.150

1961: -.152

1984: -.152

1959: -.179

2000: -.219

Cloest trends

2011 -1.654 -1.552 -1.548 -1.495 -.368 -.225 -.147

2008 -.984 -1.389 -1.619 -.945 -.39 .102 -.047

1961 -.161 -.261 -.076 .018 -.29 -.084 -.152

1989 -1.144 -1.297 -1.051 -.844 -.501 -.278 -.468

1984 -.335 -.549 .141 .329 .093 -.152 -.152

2000 -1.172 -1.228 -1.117 -.525 .118 -.162 -.219

1999 -1.109 -1.219 -1.043 -1.026 -.727 -.449 -.5

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Ugh, none of those winters were really good-- 2008-09 was ok 2000-01 was better and could have been great if March 01 had panned out.

Its hard to use 84 and 85 negatively. Those winters were not necessarily warm outside of December 1984 but they of course occurred during the 80s snow drought. Its hard to say if we duplicated the temperatures from 84-85 and 85-86 today if we would not have a much snowier winter.

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Its hard to use 84 and 85 negatively. Those winters were not necessarily warm outside of December 1984 but they of course occurred during the 80s snow drought. Its hard to say if we duplicated the temperatures from 84-85 and 85-86 today if we would not have a much snowier winter.

Especially with a neg NAO! Reagan's inauguration in Jan 1985 was the coldest day I have personally ever witnessed here. Did you read the main forum thread about this being the longest -NAO streak ever and this being a really good sign for next winter? I could honestly see next winter being even more consistently negative NAO than either of the past two!

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Again we're sort of seeing the milder winters in that list (1989 and 2001) being near the solar maximum....1984 and 1985 were not snowy but they were also not warm....minus the insanity that was the 2 week period in December 1984.

1983-84 had the warmest February on record and one of the coldest March's in 100 years...Christmas 1983 had record cold and it continued cold in January...March 28th 1984 missed a major snowstorm by one or two degrees...

1984-85 had the warmest December and latest 70 degree temp. on record and the warmest temperature ever for February...January into early February 1985 was cold with a 6" snowfall in early Feb...

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  • 5 weeks later...

MEI Value

Jul/Aug: -.502

closest actuals

1989: -.505

1962: -.556

1998: -.431

1967: -.429

1996: -.401

Closest trending

2011 -1.654 -1.552 -1.548 -1.495 -.368 -.225 -.147 -.503

2008 -.984 -1.389 -1.619 -.945 -.39 .102 -.047 -.286

1989 -1.144 -1.297 -1.051 -.844 -.501 -.278 -.468 -.505

1962 -1.081 -.993 -.72 -1.023 -.931 -.857 -.718 -.556

2000 -1.172 -1.228 -1.117 -.525 .118 -.162 -.219 -.146

1974 -1.937 -1.797 -1.769 -1.684 -1.09 -.658 -.74 -.628

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  • 4 weeks later...

MEI Value

Aug/Sep: -.772

closest actuals

2008: -.653

1967: -.632

1974: -.610

1950: -.576

1985: -.544

Closest trends:

2011 -1.654 -1.552 -1.548 -1.495 -.368 -.225 -.147 -.503 -.772

2008 -.984 -1.389 -1.619 -.945 -.39 .102 -.047 -.286 -.653

1967 -.469 -.936 -1.079 -1.067 -.479 -.364 -.654 -.429 -.632

1950 -1.046 -1.148 -1.287 -1.058 -1.423 -1.363 -1.342 -1.066 -.576

1989 -1.144 -1.297 -1.051 -.844 -.501 -.278 -.468 -.505 -.281

1974 -1.937 -1.797 -1.769 -1.684 -1.09 -.658 -.74 -.628 -.61

1985 -.559 -.597 -.722 -.486 -.743 -.103 -.15 -.395 -.544

1999 -1.109 -1.219 -1.043 -1.026 -.727 -.449 -.5 -.802 -1.009

1996 -.641 -.597 -.267 -.506 -.201 .006 -.221 -.401 -.499

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  • 4 weeks later...

MEI Value

Sep/Oct : -.968

Closest actuals;

1999: -1.065

1974: -1.049

1970: -1.102

2007: -1.144

1998: -1.153

2008: -.783

Closest trends:

2011 -1.654 -1.552 -1.548 -1.495 -.368 -.225 -.147 -.503 -.772 -.968

2008 -.984 -1.389 -1.619 -.945 -.39 .102 -.047 -.286 -.653 -.783

2000 -1.172 -1.228 -1.117 -.525 .118 -.162 -.219 -.146 -.249 -.382

1974 -1.937 -1.797 -1.769 -1.684 -1.09 -.658 -.74 -.628 -.61 -1.049

1989 -1.144 -1.297 -1.051 -.844 -.501 -.278 -.468 -.505 -.281 -.318

1962 -1.081 -.993 -.72 -1.023 -.931 -.857 -.718 -.556 -.55 -.655

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MEI Value

Sep/Oct : -.968

Closest actuals;

1974: -1.049

1970: -1.102

2007: -1.144

2008: -.783

1962: -.655

Closest trends:

2011 -1.654 -1.552 -1.548 -1.495 -.368 -.225 -.147 -.503 -.772 -.968

2008 -.984 -1.389 -1.619 -.945 -.39 .102 -.047 -.286 -.653 -.783

2000 -1.172 -1.228 -1.117 -.525 .118 -.162 -.219 -.146 -.249 -.382

1974 -1.937 -1.797 -1.769 -1.684 -1.09 -.658 -.74 -.628 -.61 -1.049

1989 -1.144 -1.297 -1.051 -.844 -.501 -.278 -.468 -.505 -.281 -.318

1962 -1.081 -.993 -.72 -1.023 -.931 -.857 -.718 -.556 -.55 -.655

that value is the 14th lowest for these months since 1950...it fits in between 1998 and 1999...

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