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Lehigh Valley to Reading to Southern Poconos to NW NJ ...obs and banter!


mcgin

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24 degrees with light snow. lets show the coastal peers of ours what a real storm isaxesmiley.png

Still LOVE it though!

Lets not show them what a real storm is but how a thread can be properly discussed without accusations and arguing on credentials and other baseless facts. We all know that this inland bomb that we are experiencing will only get better in time and we may actually reach our goal of 3-6 inches. Time to have fun. Oh by the way, thanks to our moderators who are working on this thread. What thread has ever thank their moderators this year?

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Lets not show them what a real storm is but how a thread can be properly discussed without accusations and arguing on credentials and other baseless facts. We all know that this inland bomb that we are experiencing will only get better in time and we may actually reach our goal of 3-6 inches. Time to have fun. Oh by the way, thanks to our moderators who are working on this thread. What thread has ever thank their moderators this year?

+100

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Lets not show them what a real storm is but how a thread can be properly discussed without accusations and arguing on credentials and other baseless facts. We all know that this inland bomb that we are experiencing will only get better in time and we may actually reach our goal of 3-6 inches. Time to have fun. Oh by the way, thanks to our moderators who are working on this thread. What thread has ever thank their moderators this year?

100 + there is no need for aguing or accusations. By the way I think this thread should be pinned.

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Reality check.

'

I will say this, the RUC is performing pretty poorly even on it's 2-4 hour forecasts with the timing and intensity of precipitation in Eastern PA. It continues to back off each run..so we will have to watch upstream obs constantly over the next few hours.

If anything the people that are going to be in trouble are those in E PA and W NJ, not most of the posters here, once the coastal starts the precip back in those areas may start going swiss cheese as often occurs....I have to go downstairs for 30 minutes...when I get back I'll judge the GFS run on the next storm based on how many people are in this thread vs. that one.

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They were talking in the Philly thread how the HRRR initialized too strong...so throw it out.

I'm dropping my forecast here to 2-4".

Thats alright- feel free to drop your totals. We understand your reasoning. In this thread, we do not make accusations stating that you are frickin idiot. We all feel your pain and we are also reluctant to raise the totals since we are in the screw zone. I will be glad to get my four inches and run home to my mommy with that priceless face -- " look mom- I found a dollar bill in the gutter.

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A friend up near Stroudsburg, PA says he already has around 2.0" of snow.   So it seems like the extreme northern tiers of Mt. Holly's CWA are off to a great start with this one.   I know the short term forecast (nowcast) said a coating to 1" by midnight.

id say hes bs ing you

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id say hes bs ing you

7 miles south of Stroudsburg, just over 1 inch here in Bangor. I would say 2 inches is not out of the question up there. And if someone is looking out the window and making an estimate that's off by a half inch, it's still all good.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0040

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1130 PM CST THU JAN 20 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND SRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 210530Z - 211030Z

BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ALONG THE

I-84/95 CORRIDORS FROM ERN PA INTO MA. SNOWFALL RATES FROM 1 TO 2

IN/HR SHOULD OCCUR...MOST LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND

AROUND OR JUST AFTER 12Z. ALTHOUGH DURATION OF HEAVY SNOW RATES IN

ANY ONE LOCATION SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY SHORT...HIGH TRAVEL IMPACT

ON MORNING RUSH HOUR APPEARS PROBABLE FROM THE NEW YORK CITY TO

BOSTON METRO AREAS.

05Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 1004 MB CYCLONE OVER S-CNTRL PA WITH A

QUASI-STATIONARY/WARM FRONT DRAPED EWD TO LONG ISLAND. 00Z MODELS

ARE HIGHLY CONSISTENT WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT

WAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY CROSSING THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH

VALLEY/...RESULTING IN DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE NJ/LONG

ISLAND COAST THROUGH 12Z. STRENGTHENING LOWER-LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC

LIFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH MID-LEVEL DCVA WILL RESULT IN ROBUST FORCED

ASCENT DEVELOPING FROM ERN PA TO MA. THIS SUPPORTS THE AXIS OF

HIGHEST QPF/QSF DEPICTED IN THE LATEST SREF MEAN...GFS...HRRR...AND

ETA-KF CONTROL RUN OF THE SREF. SNOWFALL RATES WITHIN THIS AXIS

SHOULD REACH 1 IN/HR...WITH RATES NEAR 2 IN/HR INTO PORTIONS OF SRN

NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS 11-14Z.

THE 00Z NAM IS NOT QUITE AS ROBUST WITH INLAND QPF THAN IN PREVIOUS

RUNS WITH GREATER OFFSHORE RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT. IF THIS

OCCURS...SNOWFALL RATES AOA 1 IN/HR MAY BE RESTRICTED TO SRN NEW

ENGLAND WITH MORE MODERATE RATES WWD. HOWEVER...BASED ON RECENT IR

CLOUD-TOP COOLING AND INCREASING RADAR REFLECTIVITY FROM CNTRL MD

INTO ERN PA...SUSPECT THE NAM MAY BE AN OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO A

PROBABLE BURST OF HEAVY SNOW OVER ERN PA/NRN NJ/SERN NY BETWEEN

07-11Z.

..GRAMS.. 01/21/2011

post-910-0-45958200-1295588435.gif

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