blackngoldrules Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 0z gfs has the low around morgantown, wv. 0c line is well north of pit. Maybe I'm grasping at straws, but the 18z run had the low in southern Ohio during the same time frame I believe. So, just hoping that maybe we'll see more shifting east with the next runs. Have to see what the others will show as well. Trying to be optimistic still being this far out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Maybe I'm grasping at straws, but the 18z run had the low in southern Ohio during the same time frame I believe. So, just hoping that maybe we'll see more shifting east with the next runs. Have to see what the others will show as well. Trying to be optimistic still being this far out yet. [/qu Storm looks like mostly ice and rain, can't seem this year to get the cold air and the moisture together. The NWS discussion does not mention anything about significant accumulations anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 4" for me! Whooopeeee. I am skeptical of that map, 16"+ from St.Louis to Maine. Yea that's gonna happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Maybe I'm grasping at straws, but the 18z run had the low in southern Ohio during the same time frame I believe. So, just hoping that maybe we'll see more shifting east with the next runs. Have to see what the others will show as well. Trying to be optimistic still being this far out yet. Storm looks like mostly ice and rain, can't seem this year to get the cold air and the moisture together. The NWS discussion does not mention anything about significant accumulations anymore. Yeah I agree, NWS / HPC think the NAM/EMCWF are the models with the better handle right now with the GFS being a SE outlier. Figures, we couldn't get a NW trend to save our lives for the last storm, now this one we can't get a SE trend! Everything has been trending NW with each run too. Today's 12z runs may be ugly.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman5416 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Yeah I agree, NWS / HPC think the NAM/EMCWF are the models with the better handle right now with the GFS being a SE outlier. Figures, we couldn't get a NW trend to save our lives for the last storm, now this one we can't get a SE trend! Everything has been trending NW with each run too. Today's 12z runs may be ugly.... We are still 4 days out! Just remember with the last storm how much model waffling there was. I would definitely not write this one off until the 00Z runs on Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 We are still 4 days out! Just remember with the last storm how much model waffling there was. I would definitely not write this one off until the 00Z runs on Sunday night. I am not writing this storm off yet but things don't look good. True, the last storm the models were all over the place but so far this time they have been very consistant with the track over us or to our west. I think we need to see it to our south and east on todays run. I just don't want a lot of rain or ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman5416 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I am not writing this storm off yet but things don't look good. True, the last storm the models were all over the place but so far this time they have been very consistant with the track over us or to our west. I think we need to see it to our south and east on todays run. I just don't want a lot of rain or ice. True, ice is not good for anybody. Looks like on day, three HPC introduced slight chance of freezing rain and 4 inches of snow. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digger Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I realize that you guys get all over come at the prospect of 1-2", unless there's the prospect of 6"+ on day 5, but if we can look at today's weather for just a moment... They're still saying 1-2 for today, but the radar ATTM makes it look like most of this clipper is already east of the area, or will be in an hour. There doesn't seem to be much of anything upstream in the way of wrap around either. Am I missing something here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman5416 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I realize that you guys get all over come at the prospect of 1-2", unless there's the prospect of 6"+ on day 5, but if we can look at today's weather for just a moment... They're still saying 1-2 for today, but the radar ATTM makes it look like most of this clipper is already east of the area, or will be in an hour. There doesn't seem to be much of anything upstream in the way of wrap around either. Am I missing something here? No, I agree with you. It seems like most of the heavy stuff stayed north of the area... I think its almost done. By the way, you mentioned early something about your kids waiting at the bus stop, do any of them go to the high school? I do the weather there every morning and I'm just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I realize that you guys get all over come at the prospect of 1-2", unless there's the prospect of 6"+ on day 5, but if we can look at today's weather for just a moment... They're still saying 1-2 for today, but the radar ATTM makes it look like most of this clipper is already east of the area, or will be in an hour. There doesn't seem to be much of anything upstream in the way of wrap around either. Am I missing something here? Funny you should say that... I've literally missed 2 or 3" of snow outside before while staring at a computer for a big day 5 storm that never happened. So, moral of the story....enjoy what ya got first. But as far as your question....I would expect a little more to develop off the lakes on the western edge, but the LES setup isn't great. I would think an inch additional max, but you never know about catching a better band or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digger Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 No, I agree with you. It seems like most of the heavy stuff stayed north of the area... I think its almost done. By the way, you mentioned early something about your kids waiting at the bus stop, do any of them go to the high school? I do the weather there every morning and I'm just curious. No. They're at the other end of the spectrum. Just started kindergarten this year. On edit: And the reason I asked is that I'm north of most of you, and even I haven't had more than a dusting of new snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 NAM doesn't look to good at 84 hours to me. Front end might not even be snow on the NAM. Only plus is the NAM was over amplified in the longer range for the last couple events if memory serves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jen16226 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Digger.....what county are you in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digger Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Digger.....what county are you in? Oops. Sorry. I never added location info here. I'm in Hopewell Twp, Beaver County, same as weatherman5416. I know there are others, like you, even further north... On edit: I see that as of 10:19 a.m. , the text forcast has been updated to say little or no further accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Maybe I'm grasping at straws, but the 18z run had the low in southern Ohio during the same time frame I believe. So, just hoping that maybe we'll see more shifting east with the next runs. Have to see what the others will show as well. Trying to be optimistic still being this far out yet. Storm looks like mostly ice and rain, can't seem this year to get the cold air and the moisture together. The NWS discussion does not mention anything about significant accumulations anymore. Yeah, I was just trying to be optimistic at the time I posted that. I saw a slight shift east with the GFS last night and I was hoping it might be a sign of things to come. But, like I said before that yesterday, I just wasn't feeling to good about this one just based on the general agreement of the models. If there was at least one or two models showing something different then I'd feel a little better about it. The NAM sets up way west at hour 84 and looks to give us mostly rain actually. I guess I'd take that over ice considering what ice can do. Well, if this one doesn't work out for us either, it's not like we're not used to it in this area. We seem to be in the "screw zone" when it comes to big storms. For every storm that actually hits us like the one almost a year ago, we seem to have 10 or 15 that miss us north, south, east and west. If we didn't have those lakes to our north, I wonder how much snow we'd really get each winter? I rarely do well with LES in my area, but at least we have that anyway. I still don't want to give up on this next one just because we're still 4 days out, but this one is looking like another swing and a miss for the area as of now. It is what it is. At least when we get the rare big hit here, it makes you appreciate it more. What we got last February was a reward for all the misses we have to deal with. We'll feel the same about the next one too, whenever that one eventually happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Canada likes us.....this model was over-amplified with the last storm, and kept my attention as other guidance was east. It owes us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 We need a 100-150 mile move to the south in most models. I think the west trend is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PittWeatherWatch Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Update from NWS Pitt .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. HOWEVER...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE STARTING TO COME TOGETHER...ON A PATH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL INCREASING RAPIDLY TOWARD TUESDAY NIGHT. A PUSH OF WARM AIR IS EXPECTED TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX. DEPENDING ON THE THERMAL STRUCTURE A SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/ICE IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE FOR SNOW SHOWER CHANCES FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I hate these setups, seems like the warm air gets the better of us everytime, here's hoping for a SE trend for once Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I think this will be a climo storm. East of I-79 and north of 422, probably will be the area that sees mostly all frozen pricip. Between 422 and 76 will be 75 / 25% frozen / liquid. South of 76 but west of ridges will see 45 / 55% frozen / liquid. Now of course i'll be wrong, but these types of storms almost always produce these results. Just sayin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The trend this winter (so far) has been to move storms south and east as the event comes closer. That said, I wouldn't be surprised to see this come further south and east. No guarantees--we still need the dynamics to align, but I won't write this system off until we're about 12 hours from the onset of the precip. The last system was never correctly handled even within 12 hours of the start of the storm. Right now I just think the signal is there and we have to hope the elements fall into line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Nams coming in a hundred miles further south east. Haven't really looked at the upper levels, but I'm assuming its less amped and the interaction occurs later. Very good trend in my opinion. nice to see a positive trend, hope it continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 nice to see a positive trend, hope it continues Can't really trust any of these models. Found this on Live weather blogs NAM AND GFS HAVE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT INITIALIZATION ERRORSOVER BRITISH COLUMBIA...WITH THE NAM TOO WEAK AND NORTHEAST WITH THE CENTER OF THEDEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND GFS TOO STRONG AND SOUTH. THESE DIFFERENCES CONTRIBUTE TOGROWING SOLUTION DIFFERENCES OVER TIME...WITH THE GFS LESSAGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING THE TROUGH INTO THE ROCKIES...A SOLUTIONWHICH IS DISCOUNTED DUE TO INITIALIZATION ERRORS AND ITS RELATIVEPOSITION WITHIN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Nams coming in a hundred miles further south east. Haven't really looked at the upper levels, but I'm assuming its less amped and the interaction occurs later. Very good trend in my opinion. Not so sure about that...it' still pretty wound up and warm with the same strength SLP Edit: although one good thing...it seems like it's lost that closed low idea in the northern rockies, so hopefully it will be more progressive Hour 84 of the 12Z is maybe 80 or 100 miles northwest of hour 78 on the 18Z. Of course they always say to compare 12Z to 0Z.....and it's probably out of the model's useful range.... so we'll see. Baby steps. but this still blows(literally) as modeled. That northern plains high is a little weaker, but it's making quicker progress south and east. 18Z first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The GFS 12Z ensembles have been going downhill... ....but there are still some all snow scenarios, with the mean around 7". There is also a scenario with 1" of ZR, which would be a disaster. Worst case for snow looks like about 4"....best case about 13" I think this link defaults to State College, so you may have to change the dropdown to Pittsburgh http://eyewall.met.p...umeDisplay.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 NOAA recon data should be in tomorrows runs of the GFS/NAM so maybe we'll be able to get a better idea then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Just took some time to catch up on today's models and things still don't look that good to me. I think an all snow solution is highly unlikely now. Good thing is the Euro didn't go any further NW so hopefully that is the end of that. Looking at the model generated snow maps is sickening, all the heavy snow misses us by about 100 miles or so to the North when we missed the heavy snow from the last event by about the same margin, just to the south! With that being said, we should see at least a couple of inches of snow before the mix sets in. I think as we sit right now, ZR could be significant. We need that low to get shunted ENE further south than what is currently being modeled to have a chance at more snow. Ironically, had KDKA on and Burnett said he expects most of the precipitation to fall mostly as either Snow, Sleet, or freezing rain with only a possibility of a brief changeover to rain. Not sure I agree, as I could see rain being at least half of our precip type as that warm tongue is often underestimated. Of course an adjustment SE would be a new ball game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I dunno, after seeing the 00z NAM trend stronger and more NW again I am not to hopeful for this one. Looks like we still see some wintry precip from the over running setup, but the main low now looks like it would be all rain unless I am missing something? If we get near 1" qpf all rain goodbye snow pack. Hopefully I am just misinterpreting something, or the NAM is wrong on temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I dunno, after seeing the 00z NAM trend stronger and more NW again I am not to hopeful for this one. Looks like we still see some wintry precip from the over running setup, but the main low now looks like it would be all rain unless I am missing something? If we get near 1" qpf all rain goodbye snow pack. Hopefully I am just misinterpreting something, or the NAM is wrong on temperatures. Well...back to normal winters here...storms are either too far northwest or too far east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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