OHSnow Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 http://www.meteor.ia...=namm&site=kpit Wow, that site shows 3' in Chicago! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PittWeatherWatch Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 wow. praying that we never see this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Over an inch of freezing rain would be bad. Down here it is all rain according to the NAM. Those bufkits always overdo things, however. It put out 80"+ of snow for one of the storms last year at PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Wow, that site shows 3' in Chicago! I don't know about them getting 3 feet, but it's definitely looking like their going to get burried from this one. We've been in the middle of the big storm sandwich this winter! Cities to our east and west getting the big snowstorms. Right now, we just have to hope we don't get a major icestorm from this one before changing to rain. Then we may have to worry about flooding. Heavy rain, snow and ice melt, ice jams from the melting are all concerns locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Well guys, looking at the 18z GFS for next weekend, there may be another storm to track beyond this one it looks like. Guess which way this one misses us? Yes, back to our south and east again! May the power of North Pgh's signature trend that one west......but not too far west! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Nah - I still need a big storm. Definitely getting sick of nuisance snows almost everyday, but you can't have a big storm without cold I would like a big storm as well, but what you realize is that big winter storms are rare for our area. Sometimes I wonder how much snow we would really get if we didn't have the lakes near us. It just gets frustrating after every storm is a miss, but that is the norm for this area. Every now and then you get an overperformer like we got last year but that doesn't happen often in our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digger Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 May the power of North Pgh's signature trend that one west......but not too far west! NO. You want everybody's Superbowl parties to be screwed up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NO. You want everybody's Superbowl parties to be screwed up? I wasn't thinking about that. Knowing our luck, this would be the one weekend we get hit. I doubt it though, the way this winter has been going. I wouldn't worry about it if I were you. I know you don't want to be plowing during the Super Bowl. I have to work that weekend, so imagine how I feel? Don't get me started on all of that again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I wasn't thinking about that. Knowing our luck, this would be the one weekend we get hit. I doubt it though, the way this winter has been going. I wouldn't worry about it if I were you. I know you don't want to be plowing during the Super Bowl. I have to work that weekend, so imagine how I feel? Don't get me started on all of that again! Doesn't that always seem the case though. I could be traveling one weekend out of a winter month and that's when the big storm hits and all the weekends home with nothing to do and the storms miss east and west. I am sick of the cold and I am looking forward to spring but I still want a big snow or nothing. I don't want it on super bowl Sunday. How about after midnight on Sunday and the Steelers win and we all get a snow day on Monday. Except Digger of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Wow... 18z NAM is way colder at the surface, seems to be catching onto the high pressure to the North keeping the cold in longer. Majority of the precip falls as ZR. NWS seems to be buying into it as well especially for areas North of I-70. Just when I thought I could take a break from the models, now Ill be drawn in to see if this was a hiccup or if the 00z follows suite. WARM, MOIST ADVECTION ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER, AND COLD ADVECTION ON THE SURFACE VIA BUILDING NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRESSURE IS IMPROVING CONFIDENCE IN A SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM FOR THE REGION. A WINTER STORM WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR COUNTIES NORTH OF I 70 FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. COUNTIES SOUTH OF THAT BOUNDARY MAY STILL EXPERIENCE SOME OF THE PRECIP, ESPECIALLY FREEZING RAIN, BUT DURATION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF ENOUGH TO LIMIT ICE ACCUMULATION. 110201/0000Z 30 09008KT 26.4F SNOW 8:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.004|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110201/0100Z 31 09009KT 26.6F SNOW 9:1| 0.1|| 0.1 0.008|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110201/0200Z 32 10009KT 26.6F SNOW 8:1| 0.1|| 0.2 0.012|| 0.02 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110201/0300Z 33 10008KT 26.2F SNOW 8:1| 0.2|| 0.4 0.020|| 0.04 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110201/0400Z 34 10008KT 26.1F SNOW 9:1| 0.2|| 0.6 0.024|| 0.07 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110201/0500Z 35 10008KT 25.9F SNOW 8:1| 0.1|| 0.7 0.016|| 0.08 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110201/0600Z 36 10009KT 25.9F SNOW 9:1| 0.1|| 0.8 0.012|| 0.09 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SRat|Snow||TotSN QPF ||TotQPF Sleet||TotPL FZRA||TotZR S%| I%| L% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 110201/0700Z 37 10008KT 25.9F SNPL 6:1| 0.1|| 0.9 0.012|| 0.11 0.01|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 64| 36| 0 110201/0800Z 38 09008KT 26.2F PL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.9 0.012|| 0.12 0.02|| 0.03 0.00|| 0.00 6| 94| 0 110201/0900Z 39 09008KT 26.6F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.9 0.012|| 0.13 0.00|| 0.03 0.01|| 0.01 0| 0|100 110201/1000Z 40 06006KT 27.1F SNPL 5:1| 0.4|| 1.2 0.067|| 0.20 0.07|| 0.10 0.00|| 0.01 48| 52| 0 110201/1100Z 41 04006KT 27.1F SNOW 11:1| 0.8|| 2.0 0.075|| 0.27 0.00|| 0.10 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0 110201/1200Z 42 06007KT 27.1F SNOW 9:1| 0.6|| 2.6 0.063|| 0.33 0.00|| 0.10 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110201/1300Z 43 06006KT 27.3F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 2.6 0.016|| 0.35 0.00|| 0.10 0.02|| 0.03 0| 0|100 110201/1400Z 44 06006KT 28.2F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 2.6 0.004|| 0.35 0.00|| 0.10 0.00|| 0.03 0| 0|100 110201/1500Z 45 05004KT 28.9F SNPL 8:1| 0.5|| 3.1 0.067|| 0.42 0.06|| 0.16 0.00|| 0.03 53| 47| 0 110201/1600Z 46 02005KT 28.9F PL 0:1| 0.0|| 3.1 0.051|| 0.47 0.10|| 0.27 0.00|| 0.03 1| 99| 0 110201/1700Z 47 02005KT 30.0F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 3.1 0.008|| 0.48 0.00|| 0.27 0.01|| 0.04 0| 0|100 110201/1800Z 48 01006KT 30.2F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 3.1 0.004|| 0.48 0.00|| 0.27 0.00|| 0.05 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110201/1900Z 49 36007KT 30.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 3.1 0.000|| 0.48 0.00|| 0.27 0.00|| 0.05 0| 0| 0 110201/2000Z 50 36008KT 30.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 3.1 0.000|| 0.48 0.00|| 0.27 0.00|| 0.05 0| 0| 0 110201/2100Z 51 01008KT 30.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 3.1 0.000|| 0.48 0.00|| 0.27 0.00|| 0.05 0| 0| 0 110201/2200Z 52 02008KT 30.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 3.1 0.000|| 0.48 0.00|| 0.27 0.00|| 0.05 0| 0| 0 110201/2300Z 53 02007KT 28.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 3.1 0.000|| 0.48 0.00|| 0.27 0.00|| 0.05 0| 0| 0 110202/0000Z 54 03007KT 28.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110202/0100Z 55 03006KT 28.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110202/0200Z 56 03008KT 28.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110202/0300Z 57 04009KT 27.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110202/0400Z 58 06010KT 27.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110202/0500Z 59 06011KT 27.3F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.012|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0.01|| 0.01 0| 0|100 110202/0600Z 60 06012KT 27.1F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.024|| 0.04 0.00|| 0.00 0.02|| 0.04 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110202/0700Z 61 07012KT 27.1F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.043|| 0.08 0.00|| 0.00 0.05|| 0.08 0| 0|100 110202/0800Z 62 07013KT 28.2F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.051|| 0.13 0.00|| 0.00 0.05|| 0.14 0| 0|100 110202/0900Z 63 08013KT 29.1F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.075|| 0.20 0.00|| 0.00 0.08|| 0.21 0| 0|100 110202/1000Z 64 08014KT 28.0F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.075|| 0.28 0.00|| 0.00 0.08|| 0.29 0| 0|100 110202/1100Z 65 08014KT 29.3F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.098|| 0.38 0.00|| 0.00 0.10|| 0.40 0| 0|100 110202/1200Z 66 09016KT 29.8F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.071|| 0.45 0.00|| 0.00 0.07|| 0.47 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110202/1300Z 67 09018KT 30.2F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.094|| 0.54 0.00|| 0.00 0.10|| 0.57 0| 0|100 110202/1400Z 68 11019KT 30.9F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.130|| 0.67 0.00|| 0.00 0.14|| 0.71 0| 0|100 110202/1500Z 69 11018KT 31.5F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.047|| 0.72 0.00|| 0.00 0.05|| 0.76 0| 0|100 110202/1600Z 70 12016KT 31.5F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.071|| 0.79 0.00|| 0.00 0.07|| 0.83 0| 0|100 110202/1700Z 71 13015KT 31.6F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.012|| 0.80 0.00|| 0.00 0.01|| 0.84 0| 0|100 110202/1800Z 72 13013KT 32.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.80 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.84 0| 0| 0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SRat|Snow||TotSN QPF ||TotQPF Sleet||TotPL FZRA||TotZR S%| I%| L% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 110202/1900Z 73 12011KT 32.4F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.016|| 0.82 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.84 0| 0|100 110202/2000Z 74 12009KT 32.5F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.016|| 0.83 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.84 0| 0|100 110202/2100Z 75 21005KT 32.7F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.059|| 0.89 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.84 40| 3| 57 110202/2200Z 76 24013KT 33.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.008|| 0.90 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.84 56| 0| 44 110202/2300Z 77 24016KT 29.3F SNOW 18:1| 0.1|| 0.1 0.004|| 0.91 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.84 100| 0| 0 110203/0000Z 78 23013KT 27.7F SNOW 20:1| 0.1|| 0.1 0.004|| 0.91 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.84 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110203/0100Z 79 23013KT 27.5F SNOW 19:1| 0.1|| 0.3 0.008|| 0.92 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.84 100| 0| 0 110203/0200Z 80 23014KT 26.6F SNOW 24:1| 0.2|| 0.5 0.008|| 0.93 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.84 100| 0| 0 110203/0300Z 81 23014KT 25.5F SNOW 23:1| 0.1|| 0.6 0.004|| 0.93 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.84 100| 0| 0 110203/0400Z 82 24014KT 24.6F SNOW 20:1| 0.1|| 0.7 0.004|| 0.93 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.84 100| 0| 0 110203/0500Z 83 24013KT 24.3F SNOW 16:1| 0.1|| 0.7 0.004|| 0.94 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.84 100| 0| 0 110203/0600Z 84 25013KT 24.3F SNOW 17:1| 0.1|| 0.8 0.004|| 0.94 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.84 100| 0| 0 ====================================================================================================================== Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Great, the last thing I want is ice. Think I would rather have the rain over ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Great, the last thing I want is ice. Think I would rather have the rain over ice. same here, I hate freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PittWeatherWatch Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 updated winter storm watch does now mention chance of power outages. not that it's surprising. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 805 PM EST SUN JAN 30 2011 OHZ039>041-048>050-PAZ013-014-020>023-029-073-074-WVZ001-002- 310915- /O.EXT.KPBZ.WS.A.0003.110201T0000Z-110202T1500Z/ TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH- LAWRENCE-BUTLER-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON- WESTMORELAND-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-HANCOCK-BROOKE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW PHILADELPHIA...DOVER... UHRICHSVILLE...CARROLLTON...EAST LIVERPOOL...SALEM...COLUMBIANA... EAST PALESTINE...WELLSVILLE...CALCUTTA...COSHOCTON...CADIZ... HOPEDALE...STEUBENVILLE...NEW CASTLE...ELLWOOD CITY...BUTLER... ZELIENOPLE...ALIQUIPPA...BEAVER FALLS...AMBRIDGE...MONACA... BEAVER...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...KITTANNING...FORD CITY... LEECHBURG...FREEPORT...APOLLO...INDIANA...WASHINGTON... CANONSBURG...DONORA...CALIFORNIA...CHARLEROI...MONONGAHELA... MCMURRAY...GREENSBURG...NEW KENSINGTON...JEANNETTE...LATROBE... MONESSEN...LIGONIER...DONEGAL...NEW FLORENCE...ACME...CHAMPION... TORONTO...WEIRTON 805 PM EST SUN JAN 30 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. * ACCUMULATION: 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES OF ICE. 2 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING: LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN MONDAY NIGHT AND CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN MAY PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS: ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATION ON UNTREATED ROADS WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. ACCUMULATING ICE MAY RESULT IN POWER OUTAGES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. REPORT YOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 updated winter storm watch does now mention chance of power outages. not that it's surprising. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 805 PM EST SUN JAN 30 2011 OHZ039>041-048>050-PAZ013-014-020>023-029-073-074-WVZ001-002- 310915- /O.EXT.KPBZ.WS.A.0003.110201T0000Z-110202T1500Z/ TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH- LAWRENCE-BUTLER-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON- WESTMORELAND-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-HANCOCK-BROOKE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW PHILADELPHIA...DOVER... UHRICHSVILLE...CARROLLTON...EAST LIVERPOOL...SALEM...COLUMBIANA... EAST PALESTINE...WELLSVILLE...CALCUTTA...COSHOCTON...CADIZ... HOPEDALE...STEUBENVILLE...NEW CASTLE...ELLWOOD CITY...BUTLER... ZELIENOPLE...ALIQUIPPA...BEAVER FALLS...AMBRIDGE...MONACA... BEAVER...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...KITTANNING...FORD CITY... LEECHBURG...FREEPORT...APOLLO...INDIANA...WASHINGTON... CANONSBURG...DONORA...CALIFORNIA...CHARLEROI...MONONGAHELA... MCMURRAY...GREENSBURG...NEW KENSINGTON...JEANNETTE...LATROBE... MONESSEN...LIGONIER...DONEGAL...NEW FLORENCE...ACME...CHAMPION... TORONTO...WEIRTON 805 PM EST SUN JAN 30 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. * ACCUMULATION: 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES OF ICE. 2 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING: LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN MONDAY NIGHT AND CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN MAY PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS: ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATION ON UNTREATED ROADS WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. ACCUMULATING ICE MAY RESULT IN POWER OUTAGES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. REPORT YOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772. I hate ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I like how I'm basically in the only county in PA that does not have a WSW (outside of the NE area). Then again no counties in WV have anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITblizz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The 0z nam only made for further confusion. I figured we might be ironing out a track by now. We get about .4 inches of ice. But Chicago went from like 25 inches of snow to like 15. There is still a lot of uncertainty with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 60hr 0z NAM heaviest ZR is to our northeast. .5" to .75" possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Wow... 18z NAM is way colder at the surface, seems to be catching onto the high pressure to the North keeping the cold in longer. Majority of the precip falls as ZR. NWS seems to be buying into it as well especially for areas North of I-70. Just when I thought I could take a break from the models, now Ill be drawn in to see if this was a hiccup or if the 00z follows suite. WARM, MOIST ADVECTION ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER, AND COLD ADVECTION ON THE SURFACE VIA BUILDING NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRESSURE IS IMPROVING CONFIDENCE IN A SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM FOR THE REGION. A WINTER STORM WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR COUNTIES NORTH OF I 70 FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. COUNTIES SOUTH OF THAT BOUNDARY MAY STILL EXPERIENCE SOME OF THE PRECIP, ESPECIALLY FREEZING RAIN, BUT DURATION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF ENOUGH TO LIMIT ICE ACCUMULATION. The above was an insightful discussion. The 8:12 p.m. update was the following: WARM, MOIST ADVECTION ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER, AND COLDADVECTION ON THE SURFACE VIA BUILDING NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRESSURE ISIMPROVING CONFIDENCE IN A SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM FOR THE REGION ANDTHE WINTER STORM WATCH WAS EXPANDED SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE GARRETTCOUNTY MARYLAND WITH COLD AIR DAMMING ALONG THE RIDGES. INADDITION, LATEST SOLUTIONS DEPICT A PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLYSURFACE WIND WHICH WILL HOLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOWN TOACCOMPANY NEW PROGS OF LOWER ABOVE-BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES. NEW WATCH WAS THUS EXTENDED INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. I'd keep on eye on the following: - Surface low placement / surface wind direction: easterly or southeasterly winds should lead to warming. Anything with a northerly component should keep the sfc cold...< 32ºF - Precipitation intensity: Light freezing rain is probably the most favorable intensity for ZR to accumulate. With moderate-heavy ZR, most of the liquid runs off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 GFS is North, and stronger, and appears warmer as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GFS is North, and stronger, and appears warmer as well. I'll take it so far. I have lots of trees and no fireplace and I would like to be in a warm house with power. Give us one inch snow tomorrow night. A little freezing rain and sleet for a few hours before quickly turning over to plain rain and an inch or two of snow on the back end on Wednesday. That is usually how it goes around here and I will take it and move on to the next storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yeah looks like both the NAM and GFS warmed up just a bit for our area compared to there 18z counterparts. 18z NAM would have been pretty severe ice storm. Things are still up in the air though and if that building high gets stronger, or keeps the NE flow longer, things could change in a hurry. GFS still wants to occlude the main surface low which I think would lessen the storms ability to advect warmer air into the region. GFS is North, and stronger, and appears warmer as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Here's my forecast for Pittsburgh and western Pennsylvania. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Great writeup by State College this AM: .SHORT TERM /4 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --CLOUDS THICKEN UP AT THE SFC IN THE SC/SW WHILE LOTS OF MOISTURE ALOFT STREAMS IN FROM THE WEST. THE BIG HIGH OFF TO THE N WILL MOVE LITTLE AND FILL ONLY THE SLIGHTEST BIT - AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD THE COLD AIR IN PLACE. THIS IS THE FIRST INGREDIENT FOR A MESSY STORM. THE SECOND AND THIRD INGREDIENTS COME ALONG IN THE FORM OF A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE RESULTING LOW OVER THE TX COAST DEEPENS AS IT TAKES A TRIP UP THE MS R AND THEN FOLLOWS OR STAYS 100 OR SO MI TO THE N OF THE MIGHTY OH R. THE TRACK OF THE STORM IS ALMOST BURNT INTO THE SCREEN OF MY MONITOR WITH NEARLY ALL MDLS AGREEING THAT THE MAIN/PRIMARY SFC LOW WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL OH AND THROUGH NRN/CENT PA. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY S OF MOST SOLNS...BUT THE DIFFERENCES AT THIS RANGE ARE SMALL. LOOKING FOR REASONS TO CHANGE THE FORECAST FROM WHAT WE HAVE...AND HAVE FOUND NONE. SEVERAL RIPPLES OF ENERGY ARE EJECTED OUT OF THE ALMOST-CUTOFF LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. THE FIRST OF THESE STRONGER WAVES MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME THAT THE ERLY FLOW PILES UP MSTR IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE S TONIGHT...IT GETS HELP IN THE FORM OF A MEETING OF THE DEVELOPING SRN JET AND A 120KT JET OVER ERN CANADA. PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN LIGHTLY THIS EVENING IN THE SW AND SPREAD TO COVER THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY SNOW...BUT SOME FZRA/FZDZ IS POSSIBLE IN THE SW. ACCUMS OVERNIGHT WILL START SLOWLY...BUT AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE AND 2-4 POSSIBLE IN THE NRN HALF BY MORNING. EVOLUTION OF THE STORM SEEMS STRAIGHT FORWARD THEN...WITH SNOW TURNING TO A MIX. THE PERIOD OF FZRA COULD BE VERY LONG OVER THE CENTRAL COS - IN AREAS LIKE CLEARFIELD...STATE COLLEGE AND DANVILLE. AREAS TO THE SOUTH WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN MIXING IN AS TEMPS TRY TO WARM. THE COLD AIR DAMMING AND THICK CLOUDS WILL DIM THAT HOPE THOUGH. SO...MUCH OF THE EVENT WILL BE SNOW ALONG THE NY BORDER...WITH A LATE CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE S. THE TRIPLE POINT WILL PASS WED AM...AND WINDS JUST BEFORE AND IN THE DRY SLOT COULD REACH 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH AS 70-80KT SRLY LLJET BLOWS THROUGH. THE NOSE OF THE JET POINTS RIGHT AT THE CENTRAL COS...AND THE DECELERATION THERE WILL SPELL HEAVY PRECIP LATE TUES NIGHT AND WED AM. THE WATCH IS STILL IN GOOD POSITION/TIMING. ALL OF THE AREA WILL SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FROM THIS STORM. THE SRN TIER WILL LIKELY HAVE THE LEAST WORRY...BUT ICE ACCUMS STILL POSSIBLE THERE.-- End Changed Discussion -- That said, I still don't have a feel for what we are getting, other then a wintry mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jen16226 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Great writeup by State College this AM: .SHORT TERM /4 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --CLOUDS THICKEN UP AT THE SFC IN THE SC/SW WHILE LOTS OF MOISTURE ALOFT STREAMS IN FROM THE WEST. THE BIG HIGH OFF TO THE N WILL MOVE LITTLE AND FILL ONLY THE SLIGHTEST BIT - AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD THE COLD AIR IN PLACE. THIS IS THE FIRST INGREDIENT FOR A MESSY STORM. THE SECOND AND THIRD INGREDIENTS COME ALONG IN THE FORM OF A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE RESULTING LOW OVER THE TX COAST DEEPENS AS IT TAKES A TRIP UP THE MS R AND THEN FOLLOWS OR STAYS 100 OR SO MI TO THE N OF THE MIGHTY OH R. THE TRACK OF THE STORM IS ALMOST BURNT INTO THE SCREEN OF MY MONITOR WITH NEARLY ALL MDLS AGREEING THAT THE MAIN/PRIMARY SFC LOW WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL OH AND THROUGH NRN/CENT PA. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY S OF MOST SOLNS...BUT THE DIFFERENCES AT THIS RANGE ARE SMALL. LOOKING FOR REASONS TO CHANGE THE FORECAST FROM WHAT WE HAVE...AND HAVE FOUND NONE. SEVERAL RIPPLES OF ENERGY ARE EJECTED OUT OF THE ALMOST-CUTOFF LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. THE FIRST OF THESE STRONGER WAVES MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME THAT THE ERLY FLOW PILES UP MSTR IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE S TONIGHT...IT GETS HELP IN THE FORM OF A MEETING OF THE DEVELOPING SRN JET AND A 120KT JET OVER ERN CANADA. PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN LIGHTLY THIS EVENING IN THE SW AND SPREAD TO COVER THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY SNOW...BUT SOME FZRA/FZDZ IS POSSIBLE IN THE SW. ACCUMS OVERNIGHT WILL START SLOWLY...BUT AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE AND 2-4 POSSIBLE IN THE NRN HALF BY MORNING. EVOLUTION OF THE STORM SEEMS STRAIGHT FORWARD THEN...WITH SNOW TURNING TO A MIX. THE PERIOD OF FZRA COULD BE VERY LONG OVER THE CENTRAL COS - IN AREAS LIKE CLEARFIELD...STATE COLLEGE AND DANVILLE. AREAS TO THE SOUTH WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN MIXING IN AS TEMPS TRY TO WARM. THE COLD AIR DAMMING AND THICK CLOUDS WILL DIM THAT HOPE THOUGH. SO...MUCH OF THE EVENT WILL BE SNOW ALONG THE NY BORDER...WITH A LATE CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE S. THE TRIPLE POINT WILL PASS WED AM...AND WINDS JUST BEFORE AND IN THE DRY SLOT COULD REACH 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH AS 70-80KT SRLY LLJET BLOWS THROUGH. THE NOSE OF THE JET POINTS RIGHT AT THE CENTRAL COS...AND THE DECELERATION THERE WILL SPELL HEAVY PRECIP LATE TUES NIGHT AND WED AM. THE WATCH IS STILL IN GOOD POSITION/TIMING. ALL OF THE AREA WILL SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FROM THIS STORM. THE SRN TIER WILL LIKELY HAVE THE LEAST WORRY...BUT ICE ACCUMS STILL POSSIBLE THERE.-- End Changed Discussion -- That said, I still don't have a feel for what we are getting, other then a wintry mix. I really wish NWS PIT would be able to do good write ups like this. Thank you for sharing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I really wish NWS PIT would be able to do good write ups like this. Thank you for sharing. Going to be a real mess around here come tommorrow/Wednesday, snow or rain, but damn ice and power outages...grrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITblizz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Nam possibly getting a better grip on the low level cold as we get closer.. shows the majority of this as frozen, probably ice.. Watch Out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 the 12z 2m 0c line is over PIT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Nam possibly getting a better grip on the low level cold as we get closer.. shows the majority of this as frozen, probably ice.. Watch Out I saw upwards of 1/2" of ice. Looks awfully pretty out there but deadly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jen16226 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Going to be a real mess around here come tommorrow/Wednesday, snow or rain, but damn ice and power outages...grrr That is what I fear. And up where I live, I know the response time from the power company would NOT be very fast. I might not be too bad, because I am in town, but my county is very rural and I know others would really be in a bad spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 the NAM total QPF 1.5" :yikes: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.