CoraopolisWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 If it's not all snow, then it might as well be all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 One of you guys used a map of a storm just missing us as your avatar last season. North pgh maybe? Can't remember who. Anyway, I remember when you put that map up as your avatar, it was shortly after that, that the blizzard of 2010 hit us! I think the map showed a storm with a detour sign on the map putting away from Pittsburgh. You need to put that map back up as your avatar! Maybe it'll work again for us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Well...back to normal winters here...storms are either too far northwest or too far east... GFS definitely looks colder. Probably some significant icing per GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 One of you guys used a map of a storm just missing us as your avatar last season. North pgh maybe? Can't remember who. Anyway, I remember when you put that map up as your avatar, it was shortly after that, that the blizzard of 2010 hit us! I think the map showed a storm with a detour sign on the map putting away from Pittsburgh. You need to put that map back up as your avatar! Maybe it'll work again for us! that was a pic that i made last year...have at it if you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 that was a pic that i made last year...have at it if you want. haha you should use this symbol 2001kx...big snowstorms to the west, east, south, and north, can we win?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 haha you should use this symbol 2001kx...big snowstorms to the west, east, south, and north, can we win?? yeah thats the story this winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 One of you guys used a map of a storm just missing us as your avatar last season. North pgh maybe? Can't remember who. Anyway, I remember when you put that map up as your avatar, it was shortly after that, that the blizzard of 2010 hit us! I think the map showed a storm with a detour sign on the map putting away from Pittsburgh. You need to put that map back up as your avatar! Maybe it'll work again for us! This is a usual Western pa. photo. The warm tongue from hell. This is not the current storm. I copied this from a map 3 or 4 years ago but we all know it happens quite a bit. The signature is up. Let's try it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 CONCUR WITH HPC GUIDANCE THAT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY CAN BE GREATER THAN 0.75 INCHES, SO PRECIPITATION TYPE CAN BE CRITICAL IN DECISIONS REGARDING WINTER WEATHER OR FLOOD POTENTIAL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digger Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 All the snowpack could conceivably absorb some amount of rainfall before excessive runoff becomes a concern, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 All the snowpack could conceivably absorb some amount of rainfall before excessive runoff becomes a concern, no? I'm not sure. 12z NAM gives us almost 1" qpf, and most of it rain with temperatures getting into the low 40s towards the end of the event. Not sure the snowpack could absorb all that water, and it would likely contribute to the problem as it starts melting. Most of the ground will still be frozen, so the water will have nowhere to go but into the ice covered streams and rivers. Could definitely see some sort of flooding being a concern with this. The colder solution (GFS) would not be without problems for the area either, as it shows significantly more icing possibilities. So its like choose your poison at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 I rather have 40s and rain instead of severe ice. If it's going to be an ice event, let it be sleet instead of freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I rather have 40s and rain instead of severe ice. If it's going to be an ice event, let it be sleet instead of freezing rain. I agree, I think it would actually be interesting to see what 1qpf of sleet looked like! Right now, it still looks like plain rain will be the main precip type though so even if we do get some ice Im not sure how severe it would be. 6z GFS gives us ~.15 of zr. 12z NAM seems to be going even further NW, so we are actually out of the heavier precip. Honestly, I hope that trend continues and we just get a front end thump of a couple inches of snow, maybe a bit of ZR / sleet, then the main storm precip misses us to the North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I rather have 40s and rain instead of severe ice. If it's going to be an ice event, let it be sleet instead of freezing rain. I agree 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jen16226 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 IMBY it is always a crap shoot. I am 1 mile from 422 and approx. 25 miles from I-80. My temps are always cooler by about 5 degrees from Pittsburgh's. Without a doubt praying for the no ice solution...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PittWeatherWatch Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 :gun_bandana::gun_bandana: But if this came true it would definitely cause some big travel problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Right on the edge of a serious ice storm per the GFS. At one point we get about .35qpf while temperatures are between 32.4 and 32.7. To me, I don't know that it would take much difference to get get a half degree colder for a portion of the heavier qpf. Of crouse I don't know how well the GFS surface temp forecasts do with this type of setup. 110202/0300Z 75 05010KT 29.5F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 3.2 0.071|| 0.42 0.00|| 0.06 0.07|| 0.10 0| 0|100 110202/0600Z 78 07007KT 32.4F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 3.2 0.185|| 0.60 0.00|| 0.06 0.00|| 0.10 0| 0|100 110202/0900Z 81 13007KT 32.7F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 3.2 0.130|| 0.73 0.00|| 0.06 0.00|| 0.10 0| 0|100 110202/1200Z 84 15008KT 34.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 3.2 0.201|| 0.93 0.00|| 0.06 0.00|| 0.10 0| 0|100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Glad I live up on a hill because I think there might be some flooding going on this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The only reason i would have liked to hear "ice" a day or two ago was because it meant we were closer to a major all snow event It simply isn't happening with this one. Bring on the warm tongue and dry slot, and lets look for the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Honestly I'm getting to the point of bringing on Spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Right on the edge of a serious ice storm per the GFS. At one point we get about .35qpf while temperatures are between 32.4 and 32.7. To me, I don't know that it would take much difference to get get a half degree colder for a portion of the heavier qpf. Of crouse I don't know how well the GFS surface temp forecasts do with this type of setup. 110202/0300Z 75 05010KT 29.5F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 3.2 0.071|| 0.42 0.00|| 0.06 0.07|| 0.10 0| 0|100 110202/0600Z 78 07007KT 32.4F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 3.2 0.185|| 0.60 0.00|| 0.06 0.00|| 0.10 0| 0|100 110202/0900Z 81 13007KT 32.7F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 3.2 0.130|| 0.73 0.00|| 0.06 0.00|| 0.10 0| 0|100 110202/1200Z 84 15008KT 34.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 3.2 0.201|| 0.93 0.00|| 0.06 0.00|| 0.10 0| 0|100 GFS does tend to underestimate the inverted trough warm push in our area. For once that may be a good thing. I would think those temps would probably be slightly higher. Of course this comment is purely anecdotal - and it's been a couple years since we've had this setup. So that idea doesn't account for differences in this particular storm, or changes the model may have undergone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Honestly I'm getting to the point of bringing on Spring Nah - I still need a big storm. Definitely getting sick of nuisance snows almost everyday, but you can't have a big storm without cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GFS does tend to underestimate the inverted trough warm push in our area. For once that may be a good thing. I would think those temps would probably be slightly higher. Of course this comment is purely anecdotal - and it's been a couple years since we've had this setup. So that idea doesn't account for differences in this particular storm, or changes the model may have undergone. This was my thinking as well. I think we get 1-2 inches over night Monday, changing to ZR, with maybe .1 before we get warm enough for all rain. Probably enough for some delays / cancellations on Tuesday but probably not terribly disruptive at this point. The only thing I am not sure about is I keep hearing in the central threads that the system is still trending further West, and is occluding very quickly. I would think the combination of these two thing would weaken (at least initially) the strength of the warm air, but who knows. I can say I am jealous of those guys, I saw blizzard watches have gone up. When is the last time KPITT had a blizzard watch? I guess on the bright side, GFS still looks cold and stormy through the run so who knows, we might get a decent snow before Winter comes to an end yet. Looks like without the blocking, the NW trend is back for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 With the PNA going strongly negative, the NAO remaining positive and the AO going really positive, it seems as though our cold and snowy regime is over for the foreseeable future. Typical La Nina conditions will be able to assert themselves now, meaning a SE ridge and warm temps. Unless the blocking returns I guess our chances for a big one this winter are toast. It's especially obnoxious considering this could have been a really strong system for us had the cold air been locked in with a High to our north. I strongly dislike those dreaded warm & wet, cold & dry winters like we had for three of the last four years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 With the PNA going strongly negative, the NAO remaining positive and the AO going really positive, it seems as though our cold and snowy regime is over for the foreseeable future. Typical La Nina conditions will be able to assert themselves now, meaning a SE ridge and warm temps. Unless the blocking returns I guess our chances for a big one this winter are toast. It's especially obnoxious considering this could have been a really strong system for us had the cold air been locked in with a High to our north. I strongly dislike those dreaded warm & wet, cold & dry winters like we had for three of the last four years. We've had almost 90" in the last 12 months.....and this will be the fourth season in a row with above average (40.6") Morgantown climo is a little different, but it hasn't been that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 We've had almost 90" in the last 12 months.....and this will be the fourth season in a row with above average (40.6") Morgantown climo is a little different, but it hasn't been that bad. I should have specified I'm not from Morgantown, only living there for school. Prior to and including last winter my home was back in Philly, where La Nina ran rampant and we had very little snow over a three period. Last winter was amazing setting our record seasonal record by far--a mod/strong El Nino. So this year with a La Nina pattern returning, even temporarily, I just don't like to see it. It brings up too many bad memories. As such, I'm not really a La Nina fan and would prefer to see it just go away. To sum it up, outside of last winter, I hadn't seen a major storm since 2003, so I was actually enjoying what may be a shift toward snowier winters. Apologies for the verbose reply. The climate out here is different (mostly minor nuisance snows) and I would always like to see another major event. I can't get enough of them haha--there is spring, summer, and fall to be warm (or at least have no snow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 330 PM EST SUN JAN 30 2011 OHZ039>041-048>050-PAZ013-014-020>023-029-073-074-WVZ001-002- 310630- /O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.A.0003.110201T0000Z-110202T0600Z/ TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH- LAWRENCE-BUTLER-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON- WESTMORELAND-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-HANCOCK-BROOKE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW PHILADELPHIA...DOVER... UHRICHSVILLE...CARROLLTON...EAST LIVERPOOL...SALEM...COLUMBIANA... EAST PALESTINE...WELLSVILLE...CALCUTTA...COSHOCTON...CADIZ... HOPEDALE...STEUBENVILLE...NEW CASTLE...ELLWOOD CITY...BUTLER... ZELIENOPLE...ALIQUIPPA...BEAVER FALLS...AMBRIDGE...MONACA... BEAVER...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...KITTANNING...FORD CITY... LEECHBURG...FREEPORT...APOLLO...INDIANA...WASHINGTON... CANONSBURG...DONORA...CALIFORNIA...CHARLEROI...MONONGAHELA... MCMURRAY...GREENSBURG...NEW KENSINGTON...JEANNETTE...LATROBE... MONESSEN...LIGONIER...DONEGAL...NEW FLORENCE...ACME...CHAMPION... TORONTO...WEIRTON 330 PM EST SUN JAN 30 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. * ACCUMULATION: 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES OF ICE. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING: LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN MONDAY NIGHT...CHANGING OVER TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN BY TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL TURN OVER TO ALL RAIN BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS: ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATION ON UNTREATED ROADS WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. REPORT YOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITblizz Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Wow.. Up to a half an inch of ice, and a few inches of snow would make for some treacherous travel.. To say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Wow.. Up to a half an inch of ice, and a few inches of snow would make for some treacherous travel.. To say the least. Maybe some power outages as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=namm&site=kpit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITblizz Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 http://www.meteor.ia...=namm&site=kpit Wow looks like we creep up to about 34 at the surface, and then back down. I'm definitely not trying to be a super weenie, and I know ice storms can be devastating in regards to travel and power outages etc. Yet, I feel this could be relatively bad, I mean a few more degrees colder, and we've got a Big problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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