sauss06 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 It's all below freezing for the most part like .3" is snow and .2" is ZR Is that MDT or HGR or deosn't matter, were the same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 Is that MDT or HGR or deosn't matter, were the same? Pretty much the same. Check out the HRRR snow map I posted. It's still snowing at that point too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Pretty much the same. Check out the HRRR snow map I posted. It's still snowing at that point too. well as Canderson has said a couple times, i'd much rather have that snow then ice. Their not making out so well with their Prog highs are they? Seems like in the other fo's they too are failing...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Does anyone have an idea what we'll see In Eastern Lycoming county? Usually I can keep up but with this storm I have NO idea lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 Man CTP is dumb.. After 12Z models go wetter they lower amounts. CTP SUCKSSSSS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Man CTP is dumb.. After 12Z models go wetter they lower amounts. CTP SUCKSSSSS we don't need them anyhow bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 really confused by the updated forecast... anybody have any thoughts why state college changed to less than an inch of snow tonight and less than an inch of sleet/snow/slop tomorrow in york. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Does anyone have an idea what we'll see In Eastern Lycoming county? Usually I can keep up but with this storm I have NO idea lol. yeah, these models have been terrible on this one, esp the NAM. I would say 1-3 of snow , then an icy mix till mid morning. then light rain showers for us. high in mid 30s seems rite. thats all just my guess for us bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 really confused by the updated forecast... anybody have any thoughts why state college changed to less than an inch of snow tonight and less than an inch of sleet/snow/slop tomorrow in york. No idea. The last numbers i saw were .30 sn and .20 ice.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 we don't need them anyhow bro. They can go jump off a bridge. I can't wait to report my 3" of snow tonight and rub it in their faces. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Updated NWS Discussion: COASTAL SFC LOW CENTER DEEPENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...LIFTING NORTH OF THE OUTER NC BANKS BY 12Z TUE. MOIST AND MILDER ATLANTIC FLOW WILL OVERRUN COLD LAYER AT THE SFC AND BRING A VARIETY OF PRECIPITATION TYPES INTO THE LOWER SUSQ. BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z... WITH A CHANGEOVER TO PLAIN RAIN LIKELY OVER ADAMS...YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES. FURTHER NORTH...A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WITH ICING IS LIKELY BUT AT THIS TIME THINK AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN UNDER 0.25" AT PLACES LIKE SCHUYLKILL COUNTY. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF HIGHER QPF...AND THIS IS ANOTHER REASON TO HOLD ONTO AN ADVISORY FOR NOW VS. THE WARNING THAT WILL BE HOISTED IN HIGHER QPF AREAS TO THE EAST. OPTED FOR AN EARLIER START TIME TO THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND HEADLINES THIS EVENING...MOVING UP START TIMES OF EXISTING WSW HEADLINES TO 00Z...AND EXPANDING WEST AND SOUTH IN COVERAGE TO INCLUDE SOME CENTRAL MOUNTAIN AND LAUREL HIGHLAND COUNTIES. ONCE PRECIPITATION SLACKENS OFF ON TUESDAY...IT`S QUITE LIKELY THERE WILL BE AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH COLD AIR TRAPPED NEAR THE SFC AND A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER BELOW CLEARING MID AND UPPER LEVEL SKIES. MAX TEMPS WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY...AND MAY STILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE GIVEN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE PLAIN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 18Z...BUT OPTED TO EXTEND WSW FOR SULLIVAN COUNTY THROUGH LATE TUESDAY EVENING AS PER COLLAB WITH WFO BGM HEADLINES.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 Updated NWS Discussion: COASTAL SFC LOW CENTER DEEPENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...LIFTING NORTH OF THE OUTER NC BANKS BY 12Z TUE. MOIST AND MILDER ATLANTIC FLOW WILL OVERRUN COLD LAYER AT THE SFC AND BRING A VARIETY OF PRECIPITATION TYPES INTO THE LOWER SUSQ. BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z... WITH A CHANGEOVER TO PLAIN RAIN LIKELY OVER ADAMS...YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES. FURTHER NORTH...A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WITH ICING IS LIKELY BUT AT THIS TIME THINK AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN UNDER 0.25" AT PLACES LIKE SCHUYLKILL COUNTY. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF HIGHER QPF...AND THIS IS ANOTHER REASON TO HOLD ONTO AN ADVISORY FOR NOW VS. THE WARNING THAT WILL BE HOISTED IN HIGHER QPF AREAS TO THE EAST. OPTED FOR AN EARLIER START TIME TO THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND HEADLINES THIS EVENING...MOVING UP START TIMES OF EXISTING WSW HEADLINES TO 00Z...AND EXPANDING WEST AND SOUTH IN COVERAGE TO INCLUDE SOME CENTRAL MOUNTAIN AND LAUREL HIGHLAND COUNTIES. ONCE PRECIPITATION SLACKENS OFF ON TUESDAY...IT`S QUITE LIKELY THERE WILL BE AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH COLD AIR TRAPPED NEAR THE SFC AND A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER BELOW CLEARING MID AND UPPER LEVEL SKIES. MAX TEMPS WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY...AND MAY STILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE GIVEN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE PLAIN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 18Z...BUT OPTED TO EXTEND WSW FOR SULLIVAN COUNTY THROUGH LATE TUESDAY EVENING AS PER COLLAB WITH WFO BGM HEADLINES.-- End Changed Discussion -- What model backed off QPF are the on crack???? They basically are all .5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 What model backed off QPF are the on crack???? They basically are all .5" Warning for Berks County. ARGH! CTP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The GFS has very little precip, they have apparently dumped he nam precip forecast abs gone with the GFS while keeping the nam's modeled temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Warning for Berks County. ARGH! CTP! Yeah, when you have this issued for a northeast bordering county, it certainly is a head-scratcher. Maybe we can succeed from CTP and join PHI. SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN... JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM... EASTON 237 PM EST MON JAN 17 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND ICE...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * PRECIPITATION TYPE: SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. * ACCUMULATIONS: 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND THEN POSSIBLY ONE-TENTH TO ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH OF GLAZE. * TIMING: SNOW BEGINS BETWEEN 1000 PM AND MIDNIGHT...THEN CONTINUES INTO THE MORNING COMMUTE. THE SNOW WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN 700 AM AND 1000 AM...THEN CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TRAVEL WILL BE SLOW AND DIFFICULT TUESDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 The GFS has very little precip, they have apparently dumped he nam precip forecast abs gone with the GFS while keeping the nam's modeled temps. GFS is the only one low on qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I agree. They bumped up QPF at 1030 and dramatically decreed just now. He'll I wish CTP issued maps like Mt Holly, their maps are wonderful. CTP does nothing of that sort. It should IMO be mansatory for all bureaus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 GFS is the only one low on qpf. yeah, watch us get like 3-5" snow from this, then .10 ice instead of .20 ice.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I agree. They bumped up QPF at 1030 and dramatically decreed just now. He'll I wish CTP issued maps like Mt Holly, their maps are wonderful. CTP does nothing of that sort. It should IMO be mansatory for all bureaus. They actually do issue those maps... My link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Wow! NWS local sites are so poorly designed I couldn't find it. Thank you so much! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 And next one. Kaboom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 84 hr nam looks sweet, now thats what Im talking about.I cant post it cuz my computer is actin up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Temps here in East York have done this: 11am 26 12pm 25 2pm 26 current 4pm 27 I'm not sure the thermometer on the Fuddruckers sign is perfect, but I'm going with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Here is our temps for the day. http://weather.noaa....rrent/KIPT.html NWS here is conservative. But most of the time they are fairly close. Just late in getting it posted compared to other areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 18Z GFS comes a bit west. Up to .28" for me and I get .6" on nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Looks like the GFS is going toward the NAM, so once again maybe the NAM wins this winter battle. It's had a good run this year, let's see if it verifies. If so, CTP really missed this one earlier on today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I am back, anything significantly change for here? Oh and I saw the 18z NAM 84 hour... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 Radar looks pretty juicy. 28 here and massive virga overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 AccuWeather has MDT getting no accumulation of any kind, while CTP now says maybe an inch of snow and between .1-.3" ice. AccuWeather is such a joke sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Saw Weather World had 3-6" for much of Central PA, from Harrisburg to the Allegheny Front north to the NY border, then over to NEPA and back down to near Harrisburg. Mentioned a sharp cutoff on the western edge west of State College...hopefully we'll end up on the right side of that cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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