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The Jan 9-10 Storm Part 3


MotoWeatherman

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One vital thing to remember, although it may not apply to this. Weather models in general, already discount virga.. current radar observations do not. In other words, what you see as moisture on a model is usually what actually falls and is on the ground. A radar doesn't know what's hitting or not.

Right, right. I have that in the back of my mind of course. I suppose it wouldn't hurt to look at OBS reports to be on the safe side as well to see what has been falling or not.

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It also looks like it's already ahead of 0z GFS at 6hr where it was developing it in central TX by then.

It is pretty close, but still didn't pick up on the northern stream being as robust as it looks currently. Makes me wonder if we may see some forecast changes over the next 12 to 18 hours. There has been some mentions of what happens if the northern piece is stronger as it swings over TN, and that models haven't been handling that piece of energy well. Could up the accumulations across Northern MS, AL, GA, and Most of TN, but by robbing moisture from further south.

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