bkviking Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Can't upload graphic from CPC from iphone but take look at next week's threat assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Can't upload graphic from CPC from iphone but take look at next week's threat assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ Here you go bud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 For those of you who live and die by the nogaps, its a major hit for the nyc area on its 18z run. It is west of its 12z solution. Take it for what it is worth to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 There's something to be said for the sampling of that Pac. feature. It's really jumped around a good bit on the past several model runs (on all guidance). It has a very important interaction even with the initial shortwave that comes out of the southern stream and ejects across the southeast coast. This feature, on today's 18z GFS, gets sheared out by the positioning of the PV and the delayed entrance of the Pac shortwave. That being said, there's plenty of room for things to change here. Seeing the mean trough advertised as is, is a pretty impressive signal for this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 18 Z NOGAPS your pictures arent showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 They brined a number of the roads last night and today. Here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 your pictures arent showing up. I see them plain and well ..in your reply plus the original?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I have a feeling like so many other storms this far out that it will wobble east and west until we get closer to the storm just glad to see that it is still there with several different models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 For a good idea how precarious the setup is, here are the top analogues from CIPS off ot the 01/06/11 12z GFS http://www.eas.slu.e...fhr=120&flg=new The first three dates are complete duds for this area. Near hits that looked great ahead of time and never produced. The fourth and fifth dates need no introduction. It only takes a tweak here or there at 500mb to be feast or famine with this storm, so no one should get too high or low right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Here you go bud. Thanks Earthlight! I am presuming whether next weeks event is hit or miss it will have a role in bringing down our anticipated arctic airmass despite CPC's 8-14 day showing the core of cold aiming southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Lets try it this way though i could see them 18 Z Nogaps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Okay whats that like the 5th run of the nogaps run in a row showing a very amplified solution? That is definitely a red flag of some sort imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Barring unforeseen entities, both players are going to be in good raob range much sooner than the diving short wave with the Boxing Day Blizzard, we might start seeing some modeling stability as soon as the 12z run on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Okay whats that like the 5th run of the nogaps run in a row showing a very amplified solution? That is definitely a red flag of some sort imo. This is what HM from this forum had to say on the main forum a couple days ago. To my knowledge he has not posted since... 2. The Jan 11-12 storm has plenty of room to amplify; and while there is a 50-50 low feature, it seems to be moving out to allow this thing to amplify solidly. Also the mean confluence behind the departing 50-50 low weakens with no major CAD signature. This storm, if it wants to, could amplify to the point where a lot of people in the coastal plain change over. Watch for the inevitable H8-7 warming with a setup like this that brings the joyful sounds of sleet to many snow enthusiasts. That being said, there is certainly potential for this to be a solid winter storm for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 GFS ensemble mean is closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 GFS ensemble mean is closer to the coast. HOLY CRAP! That's the closest we've seen the ensemble mean for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 For those of you who live and die by the nogaps, its a major hit for the nyc area on its 18z run. It is west of its 12z solution. Take it for what it is worth to you. Well it's the NOGAPS, so I won't thnk too much of it. But I will say that usually this model has a very progressive SE biased. So the fact that it I so far west is noteworthy I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The 18z GEFS means are very impressive for the mid week event. I expected them to be closer to the coast, but they are really tucked in to the northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Here's the individual members http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRSNE_18z/f132.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 some crazy ens mean support on the gfs indiv members... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Here's the individual members http://www.meteo.psu...NE_18z/f132.gif At least three of the members would seemingly deliver the goods for my downstate brethren: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 some crazy ens mean support on the gfs indiv members... If I'm seeing correctly Tom, there are A LOT more ensemble members with hits than 12z today right? Sweet sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Here's the individual members http://www.meteo.psu...NE_18z/f132.gif appears 6, or 50% of those members show a direct hit over the Nyc metropolitan area between 126 and 138 as they are not all hits at the same time. Some slower, some faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 If I'm seeing correctly Tom, there are A LOT more ensemble members with hits than 12z today right? Sweet sign. yes, the 12z had more of the ull tracking over us and giving us precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Barring unforeseen entities, both players are going to be in good raob range much sooner than the diving short wave with the Boxing Day Blizzard, we might start seeing some modeling stability as soon as the 12z run on Saturday. Yeah, as it stands now we aren't in a very good sampling area, but this storm shouldn't have wild and dramatic swings like the blizzard a few weeks ago. There's always room for trending obviously, but I agree with 12z Saturday idea. I think this setup is convoluted but it definitely has some potential. I'm impressed with the modeling of the northern stream feature or PAC feature coming in to the west coast and eventually into the Plains. All of the globals are suppressed, but that feature has trended a good bit stronger and faster. They aren't far off from showing something along the lines of the 18z GEFS mean. We will see where the next few guidance suites take us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The 18z GFS tries so hard to bring it up the coast, it still drops light precip, and the individual members from the ECM and GFS are very encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Here's 12 of the 20 members 72 hr precip totals. Some decent hits around there, some not so much. You can see how some of those precip maxima skew the ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 8 of those 12 indiv members have atleast .25 or more qpf, so thats a good sign to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I think the changeover scenario is definitely still on the table here. It's all about the timing of the interaction with the southern jet and the phase. There is confluence up north in Canada and ridging over central Canada, but it's generally moving out when the storm arrives. There's really not a tremendous amount to keep the storm south and east if it phases properly and early enough, and it will try to cut if there's not enough of a block to prevent it from doing so. That's what the previous DGEX and Nogaps runs referred to. Maybe there could even be the one low west of the Apps and one low on the coast. The fact that the ensembles have generally been west of the operationals is another red flag to me that it might not be as easy as it seems for this to escape east. Obviously if there is no phase or the system shears out it will, but it won't take a lot to push this north at all. It actually seems easier this time than the 12/26 blizzard. If I had a gun to my head I'd give about a 25% chance of coming inland enough to change the coast over, 40% of a hit for the entire area, and 35% of a miss to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 heres the 18z dgex snowfall clow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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