JTA66 Posted Wednesday at 03:42 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:42 PM Not sure, but I think I just heard thunder. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pl0k00n111 Posted Wednesday at 04:18 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:18 PM Yes thunder in pennsauken nj, a short burst of heavy rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted Wednesday at 04:36 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:36 PM Extended Ensemble outlook (not a forecast) shows a cooler trend than normal for last week of October and into the first couple weeks of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted Wednesday at 05:05 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:05 PM Not much rain this AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted Wednesday at 05:31 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:31 PM How does the ChescoWx East Nantmeal forecast stack up against the National Weather Service? After 7 weeks of scoring every forecast against what actually happened, the temperature results are pretty clear! Since August 22 we have verified 50 days and about 2,800 high and low temperature forecasts, each one matched up against the NWS forecast for the same day issued at the same time. ChescoWx was closer on temperatures on 45 of the 50 days. The NWS was closer on 4 and 1 was dead even. The typical ChescoWx miss was about 1.8 degrees. The typical NWS miss was about 3.0 degrees. For tomorrow's forecast the gap is widest... about 1 degree for ChescoWx vs about 2.5 degrees for the NWS. The edge holds out through day 6 and the two are basically even by day 7. About 8 in 10 ChescoWx forecasts landed within 3 degrees of the actual temperature vs about 6 in 10 for the NWS. Much of the NWS gap is a warm lean on daytime highs of about 3 degrees in our backyard. Rainfall is a different story. On the 10 days with measurable rain the NWS did a bit better, and both forecasts badly missed our two biggest rain events (1.66" on September 3 and 2.42" on October 11). Rain is where we are focused on improving next. Fair caveat... 50 days of late summer and early fall is a start, not a final verdict. We will keep scoring every forecast through the winter, and snow will be the real test! The live scorecard is on the Current Weather page here: https://chescowx.com/current-weather/ Let me know if any questions! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted yesterday at 01:01 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:01 PM Slight risk day 2 west of the river. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted yesterday at 01:56 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:56 PM Of note 72 years ago today back in 1954 Chester County was on the last day of a 2 day storm that left as much as 1.60" of rain at Coatesville 1SW. This was the remnants of Hurricane Hazel which tracked within about 80 miles of the county. Today we should see highs in the upper 60's to near 70 which is about 5 degrees above normal with lows tonight in the 50's. Temperatures will run about 11 degrees above normal Friday but by Saturday we drop to 4 to 9 degrees below normal, before we return to near normal by Tuesday. By Sunday morning lows will be in the low to mid 30's with a freeze possible in the colder valleys! Our best chance of rain is Friday with around 0.30" according to the ChescoWx model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted yesterday at 03:40 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:40 PM 2 hours ago, JTA66 said: Slight risk day 2 west of the river. We'll see. Not buying it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted yesterday at 04:19 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:19 PM 34 minutes ago, MGorse said: Not buying it? lol...don't look to me Mike. I'm just a weenie, not a trained met. I think it was Oct 2015. Woke up to beautiful blue skies that morning. There was a chance of severe storms later in the day, but it just didn't feel like a "severe day". Sure enough, I (central Montco) was under a tornado warning that afternoon. Hence my "we'll see". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted yesterday at 09:11 PM Share Posted yesterday at 09:11 PM 4 hours ago, JTA66 said: lol...don't look to me Mike. I'm just a weenie, not a trained met. I think it was Oct 2015. Woke up to beautiful blue skies that morning. There was a chance of severe storms later in the day, but it just didn't feel like a "severe day". Sure enough, I (central Montco) was under a tornado warning that afternoon. Hence my "we'll see". Ah, okay. I just had to ask. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago That slight risk certainly expanded a tad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago Enjoy today! Highs should reach the mid to upper 70's which is about 10 degrees above normal. A strong cold front will cross the region tonight with a line of storms during the evening hours. Temperatures will fall from the upper 50's at midnight to lows in the upper 40's by morning. Behind the front is some very chilly air for mid-October. Temperatures during the day tomorrow will struggle to escape the 40's across the ridges with low 50's in the valleys. By Sunday morning we should see lows in the mid 30's with a freeze possible in the colder valleys! Temperatures will run well below normal through Monday before we return to near normal by Tuesday. We look to stay dry through the new work week according to the ChescoWx model. In weather history on this date in 2009 the county high only averaged 41 degrees...the coldest October 16th since records began in 1890! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 67F/DP 65F Line clearly starting to form just W of State College (73F/DP 66F) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago The sun is starting to breakout. 69F/DP 66F as we approach 2pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Severe Thunderstorm Watch up - Quote SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 686 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 125 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 686 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS PAC001-009-011-013-015-017-021-025-027-029-033-035-037-041-043- 045-055-057-061-067-069-071-075-077-079-081-087-089-091-093-095- 097-099-101-103-107-109-111-113-115-119-127-131-133-170000- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0686.261016T1725Z-261017T0000Z/ PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BEDFORD BERKS BLAIR BRADFORD BUCKS CAMBRIA CARBON CENTRE CHESTER CLEARFIELD CLINTON COLUMBIA CUMBERLAND DAUPHIN DELAWARE FRANKLIN FULTON HUNTINGDON JUNIATA LACKAWANNA LANCASTER LEBANON LEHIGH LUZERNE LYCOMING MIFFLIN MONROE MONTGOMERY MONTOUR NORTHAMPTON NORTHUMBERLAND PERRY PHILADELPHIA PIKE SCHUYLKILL SNYDER SOMERSET SULLIVAN SUSQUEHANNA UNION WAYNE WYOMING YORK $$ Also a Freeze Watch in the western burbs. It's a warmish 69 here with dp 66 but that's about to go bye bye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 72F/DP 68F/ Sunny Line just W of Harrisburg... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted 42 minutes ago Share Posted 42 minutes ago Just got hammered here in Macungie 50 mph wind gusts and a good thunderstorm. Watch out Bucks and Montgomery areas coming your way. 1-2 in rainfall rates too. Temps jumped from mid 60's at 2 pm to near 80 in 2 hours. Still raining hard. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted 25 minutes ago Share Posted 25 minutes ago Most storms have been sub-severe to this point. The strongest winds are near Richlandtown and Lake Nockamixon in Upper Bucks county. The storms along the Mason-Dixon line would be the Philadelphia area's best chance later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted 21 minutes ago Share Posted 21 minutes ago Skies starting to darken here. Looks like 73F will be my high for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted 12 minutes ago Share Posted 12 minutes ago 72F/DP 66F Line rather lame... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted 2 minutes ago Share Posted 2 minutes ago 8 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: 72F/DP 66F Line rather lame... Yeah, the line fizzled on approach. Was almost dark as night here about 10 minutes ago, but not so much now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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