Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

[vortex95]

11 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I'm sorry, but some of this sounds like hyperbole of the hyperbole. What serious person is out there saying that a 90 degree day in New England is dangerous and requires people staying inside? Everybody knows the information environment is crap on balance. Even the general public to a large degree gets that. A met on local tv saying a heat dome is going to give us highs of 95 with a HI of 105 so take precautions otherwise it can be dangerous is very different from some kid on YouTube saying the heat dome is going to kill everybody. Yeah, they get clicks, but I don't encounter a lot of people in normal life who are cowering in a corner because of something they heard from a random online. 

In the face of a lot of bad information and hype out there, a lot of professionals and serious hobbyists have tried to counter that with using more probabilistic forecasting and communication, contextualizing how weather is not climate, and explaining how the science is the same even when terminology changes. 

To be clear--I believe the information environment is profoundly worse on balance than it was 30 years ago. There is too much hype, too many bad actors cashing in on quackery, and too little nuance introduced whenever we do have high end events (not every hurricane or major flood is directly tied to climate change, not every temperature drop below zero/above 100 is historic, etc) but I don't think it's fundamentally changed how most people make decisions, especially in advance of/during high end events.

Not yet at least. 

Good info!  Thanks.  This kind of discussion is great b/c it puts forth different views/angles that we all can take in, and then make adjustments and see things better.  It is all too easy for one to isolate themselves in their own mindset/attitude, and forget there is always more too it or another way of looking at it!

Perhaps "cowering" was not the best term choice, at least not as to what actually happens when sig wx occurs,  However, the message being put forth, from the individual to big media, is on the level that "cowering" does fit IMHO.  This is biggest tissue I have -- how wx is handled/presented by so many in recent decades. That has devolved significantly, and has real physical and physiological impacts.

I agree that more ppl than not get it and do to succumb or fall prey to excessive hype, but unfortunately the vocal minority that do get *most* of the attention, and even one person crying foul in some cases, ends up going viral or officials/authorities/politicians overreacting, and it ends up being a much bigger deal that it actually should be, and this in turn affects mindsets, zeitgeist, and policy.  And also, you get those in charge using wx events for ulterior and questionable motives at times.

And due to excessive hype, it promotes distrust and apathy in the public, and that can and does have consequences that are non-trivial.

Social media is biased w/ hype and over the top b/c it get clicks/likes and drives the algorithms, so individuals not only benefit, but also the platforms do, and you get this feedback loop, and the platform quality goes down.

I have no problem w/ hype when it is warranted, meaning when something truly big is fcst that will have impacts way above the norm and/or is quite rare, like a Sandy or the Oct 2011 snowstorm, going full throttle is a good thing.  But crying wolf for virtually *every* wx event is ridiculous and counterproductive.  What WxWiz said about local hype in CT for the most recent rain event is a good example.  Yes, in a vacuum, 4-8" of rain fcst is a concern, but as discussed, there are other factors to consider. esp. when talking about *impact* to society.  The MSM and hype-masters often conflate an event intensity and impact.  The two are not always direct correlated!  And we have the tech, skill, and knowledge now to quite easily quantify and scale wx events very good, but not all for various reasons are taking advantage of it!  For instance, you will still here some ppl  think/say (anywhere - the public to officials/authorities) -- "well, you never know w/ the wx!"  That is a largely an out-of-date and weasel excuse these days.

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Possible little or no rain next two weeks . What we all had this week was good . It will evaporate quickly. We’ll see how it plays out. This is acting opposite of typical super Nino summer with above normal and dry 

Greenfield had under .50" yesterday so not awesome but at least it was  something for the fruit trees. 

We dry moving forward.  Good for mosquito control I suppose. 

[WxWatcher007]

24 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Good info!  Thanks.  This kind of discussion is great b/c it puts forth different views/angles that we all can take in, and then make adjustments and see things better.  It is all too easy for one to isolate themselves in their own mindset/attitude, and forget there is always more too it or another way of looking at it!

Perhaps "cowering" was not the best term choice, at least not as to what actually happens when sig wx occurs,  However, the message being put forth, from the individual to big media, is on the level that "cowering" does fit IMHO.  This is biggest tissue I have -- how wx is handled/presented by so many in recent decades. That has devolved significantly, and has real physical and physiological impacts.

I agree that more ppl than not get it and do to succumb or fall prey to excessive hype, but unfortunately the vocal minority that do get *most* of the attention, and even one person crying foul in some cases, ends up going viral or officials/authorities/politicians overreacting, and it ends up being a much bigger deal that it actually should be, and this in turn affects mindsets, zeitgeist, and policy.  And also, you get those in charge using wx events for ulterior and questionable motives at times.

And due to excessive hype, it promotes distrust and apathy in the public, and that can and does have consequences that are non-trivial.

Social media is biased w/ hype and over the top b/c it get clicks/likes and drives the algorithms, so individuals not only benefit, but also the platforms do, and you get this feedback loop, and the platform quality goes down.

I have no problem w/ hype when it is warranted, meaning when something truly big is fcst that will have impacts way above the norm and/or is quite rare, like a Sandy or the Oct 2011 snowstorm, going full throttle is a good thing.  But crying wolf for virtually *every* wx event is ridiculous and counterproductive.  What WxWiz said about local hype in CT for the most recent rain event is a good example.  Yes, in a vacuum, 4-8" of rain fcst is a concern, but as discussed, there are other factors to consider. esp. when talking about *impact* to society.  The MSM and hype-masters often conflate an event intensity and impact.  The two are not always direct correlated!  And we have the tech, skill, and knowledge now to quite easily quantify and scale wx events very good, but not all for various reasons are taking advantage of it!  For instance, you will still here some ppl  think/say (anywhere - the public to officials/authorities) -- "well, you never know w/ the wx!"  That is a largely an out-of-date and weasel excuse these days.

 

I certainly agree that the changes we're seeing in how information gets communicated is starting to have a cumulative effect, and while I think most probably still understand what's over the top, when you have so much bad, misinterpreted, misleading information combined with a growing reliance on short form video rather than reading and critical thinking, we're going the wrong way. I think you can see it in how wildly popular some of the YouTubers in particular have become and how some elements of MSM seem to be trying to adopt similar styles even if it isn't going full on hype in the way we see online. I think that's a larger conversation though about how media has become less of a public trust focused on truth and analysis and more a place for entertainment and opinion that generates engagement and profit. 

There's always been an aspect of "if it bleeds it leads" but sometimes you watch the nightly news for example and they're leading off talking about a severe weather outbreak which, while bad, might completely leave out the context that severe weather outbreaks have happened for millennia because the atmosphere at its very core seeks balance. Pick your wx topic. It may be newsworthy in its own right because people are being impacted, but if you're leaving out all of the context, it does the general public a disservice. 

Another great example--and my hobbyhorse since I care about it more than any other type of wx--is tropical. You can bank on every active year truly outrageous bad analysis and hype. Whether it's people sharing 10 day operational model doom runs under the guise of "making sure people are prepared", or wanting to be the first to call for RI of a tropical wave because they rip and read a HAFS run before a LLC has even been identified, or probably the worst...taking a string of active seasons and/or a high end hurricane and declaring that the Atlantic is in a new era of hyperactivity.

That definitely has a negative impact IMO on how the public views and responds to emergency managers who often times are community members just trying to do their best. I worry that the current information sharing landscape and the decline in reading and critical thinking is going to prove disastrous long term, not just in the wx space.  

[rimetree]

I think we probably have chances for some pretty rainy days this month. I don't buy anything models sell beyond 4 or 5 days this time of year. Just need some random disturbance to tap into a volatile atmosphere to get something going.

[WxWatcher007]

And let me just add lol. I'm not trying to be on some high horse denouncing people--mets or hobbyists--who try to be a real value add to the public discourse. I think the information sharing landscape has allowed for different perspectives to break through and advance the science by challenging our thinking on what's possible and why in wx. I'm biased, but I think many chasers add value by being in the dangerous places and collecting data and video that aids in our understanding of extreme wx and the issuance of warnings. But as we know...many are just trying to gain money and clout. God bless 'em, it's America, but the goal should always be building trust with the public and helping people understand science/context/impact.  

[Torch Tiger]

Maybe some severe around the 18th or 19th, otherwise SNE looks