Winter 2026-2027. Historic Potential

[Weather Will]

Source: WB JB post from latest Canadian seasonal.  Hope it is right!

[Weather Will]

WB Nov. Canadian seasonal

[Cobalt]

23 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Source: WB JB post from latest Canadian seasonal.  Hope it is right!

I am almost certain that this is derived from JB asking an AI model to produce a snowfall output map based on the model's temperature and precip anomaly maps. AI like the one that made this map are only designed to interpret and create images, so it (and therefore this map) aren't grounded in any climatological understanding. Basically, it's AI slop wishcasting, and if you ask the same model to make the exact same map it will be different every time. 

[Cobalt]

2 examples that stand out. The AI model is creating a new light purple color code out of nowhere

Also its text does not understand how the color contours correspond to snowfall lol

So yeah, affirms my suspicion that he just fed the canSIPS output into an AI model that is good enough to make maps (naturally weather maps probably show up a lot in the training data so it has some stuff to work with), but he asked it to generate data that does not exist and can't be derived from just the precip and temp maps alone. 

[Elim72]

[Eskimo Joe]

11 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Did you forget what happened in 2015?

We lucked into one storm. Statistically it was an above average winter.

[mitchnick]

57 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We lucked into one storm. Statistically it was an above average winter.

We don't "luck" into any snowstorm let alone the #1 snowstorm for BWI. It was a strong Niño. 82/83 would have been BN too, but for the Megalopolis storm. 

Nobody knows for certain what's going to happen, including the eternally depressed CC crew in the Enso thread. But you're in a decent spot in Reisterstown being both inland and with a decent elevation. You should be at least moderately pumped, but patient because odds favor the second half of the winter. But we could still sneak one in ala 12/12/83 despite being +3.4 that month.

[SnowenOutThere]

Figured I should post my Climatology research project proposal here! If any mets want to weigh in on how to best accomplish it let me know (though it really isn't supposed to be a crazy project). Otherwise the literature review might be helpful for those who want to know a bit more about the NAO/PNA influence on snowstorm climatology. Please ignore the grammar too it was 11pm when I submitted it.  

Climatology Proposal AMWX.pdf

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

We don't "luck" into any snowstorm let alone the #1 snowstorm for BWI. It was a strong Niño. 82/83 would have been BN too, but for the Megalopolis storm. 

Nobody knows for certain what's going to happen, including the eternally depressed CC crew in the Enso thread. But you're in a decent spot in Reisterstown being both inland and with a decent elevation. You should be at least moderately pumped, but patient because odds favor the second half of the winter. But we could still sneak one in ala 12/12/83 despite being +3.4 that month.

Yeah there was a +500dm -NAO and near -500dm +PNA days before the Jan 2016 storm. One of the more extreme patterns on record.