Winter 2026-2027. Historic Potential

[WEATHER53]

2 hours ago, frd said:

If we do get cross polar flow later in November this might move into Canada and then move SE based on a - AO regime. 

 

FLXweather-Dave

 

@FXweather26823

 

 

In the U.S, we tend to focus on northern Canada for the annual rebuilding of cold air in the Fall, but Siberia is the true cold air factory, and it's producing a surplus right now. Much colder than normal air has spread all the way to, and beyond, the Mongolia & China border.

 

 

 

 

Mongolian high pressure is our best cold source friend 

[LongRanger]

SSWs would be more exciting if we knew displaced polar air was headed our way, but we don't, at least not yet. The cold and snow might just as easily wind up elsewhere.

[Bob Chill]

Strat stuff often muddies the forecasting water because there is no straightforward effect on the troposphere. Sometimes it helps, sometimes it doesn't mean jack squat lol. And I've never seen anyone consistently forecast how a SSW event affects sensible wx. We know what it "can" do but we also know not to read too deeply into it until you can see the effect on the longwave pattern in the troposphere. 

That said, this is an unusually strong event very early in the season. I wouldn't be surprised if this event kick starts a long duration -AO late Nov into Dec. Seasonal models have been honking a -AO in jan/Feb for months. It's hard not to like what we're seeing right now. We don't need siberian air to get snowstorms. Normal continental cold with a suppressed storm track is often enough in DJF.