Winter 2026-2027. Historic Potential

[Maestrobjwa]

In case anybody thinks I'm being too much of doomer about having to wait at least three years if this nino doesn't deliver a big snow: With the assumption that the ninas double dip...it's either this year or 29-30 for the next chance:

10 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 

 Looking at El Niño seasons that at some point maxed out at +2.0C for a trimonthly in Nino 3.4 (using Eric Webb’s tables for pre-1950 and the latest version of NOAA RONI for 1950+), this is what followed in ASO as well as the subsequent fall/winter:

1877-8: ASO +0.1 followed by cold neutral
1888-9: ASO -1.1 followed by strong La Niña
1965-6: ASO 0.0 followed by cold neutral
1972-3: ASO -1.3 followed by strong La Niña
1982-3: ASO -0.6 followed by moderate La Niña
1991-2: ASO +0.1 followed by weak El Niño
1997-8: ASO -1.2 followed by strong La Niña
2015-6: ASO -0.9 followed by moderate La Niña


Tally for these 8 strongest El Niños on record:

5 La Niña (3 strong, 2 moderate) (62.5%)
2 cold neutral (25%)
1 weak El Niño (12.5%)

So, this suggests the best chance is clearly for La Niña although it also suggests to not dismiss the possibility of something else, mainly cold neutral, especially IF this were to peak later than model consensus has been suggesting (say, in Jan instead of Nov). Of the 3 of these that didn’t go to La Niña, 1877-8 peaked between NDJ and DJF while 1991-2 peaked in DJF. OTOH, 1965-6 peaked early (OND) and still didn’t go all the way to La Niña the following year as it stopped at cold neutral. Note that the 3 that were neutral in ASO never made it to La Niña.
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Sources of data:

1. Webb’s tables (used for pre-1950):

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

 

2. NOAA RONI (1950+):
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/

 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

In case anybody thinks I'm being too much of doomer about having to wait at least three years if this nino doesn't deliver a big snow: With the assumption that the ninas double dip...it's either this year or 29-30 for the next chance:

 

1. The best hope for 2027-8 might be for it to be like 3 of these 8 analogs and not be La Niña for the NE:

1878-9: near to AN snow

1966-7: well AN snow

1992-3: BN to AN snow

 

2. Regarding the snow for the 5 that did become LN, not good:

1889-90: BN

1973-4: NN

1983-4: BN

1998-9: BN

2016-7: MBN

[psuhoffman]

21 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

In case anybody thinks I'm being too much of doomer about having to wait at least three years if this nino doesn't deliver a big snow: With the assumption that the ninas double dip...it's either this year or 29-30 for the next chance:

 

It is true that 6 of the last 7 HECS storms came in a nino but those are such super rare events anyways.  We've had plenty of SECS/MECS events in other enso states, at least until recently.  Recently we've not had big snowtorms in ANY enso state.  The last 2 Nino's didn't produce a significant snow for Baltimore either.  If this winter does not that would be 3 in a row.  At some point maybe you just have to accept a difficult truth.  

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It is true that 6 of the last 7 HECS storms came in a nino but those are such super rare events anyways.  We've had plenty of SECS/MECS events in other enso states, at least until recently.  Recently we've not had big snowtorms in ANY enso state.  The last 2 Nino's didn't produce a significant snow for Baltimore either.  If this winter does not that would be 3 in a row.  At some point maybe you just have to accept a difficult truth.  

Something had to change though. It has been a decade of futility for us western folks. I will take my chances with some wound up bombs for once.