Winter 2026-2027. Historic Potential

[Jebman]

On 7/7/2026 at 6:49 PM, frd said:

 

We will be tired of the blizzards.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I might have to stop by for a few days and watch all that snow pile up.

[Weather Will]

Early winter analog ideas from WB's D'Aleo:  surprised by both maps actually...temps are cold and precip. is just normal.

[CAPE]

Latest CFS runs still going Giga for late winter. Typically when we have the highest probability of a major east coast winter storm during a Nino.

[frd]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

Early winter analog ideas from WB's D'Aleo:  surprised by both maps actually...temps are cold and precip. is just normal.

The East based Nino folks are not going to agree. 

[GaWx]

CFSv2 latest 10 day mean of JFM 2m anomalies is beautiful fwiw:

 

Same for precip:

 Whereas this looks great and I’d love for it to verify closely, it’s important to keep in mind the following for the NE US regarding 15 years of mid-July CFSv2 JFM prog verifications (2012-26):

-Too cold 6 yrs/40% (including 4 much too cold): ‘24, ‘23, ‘21, ‘20, ‘17, ‘12

-Too warm 4 yrs/27% (including one much too warm): ‘26, ‘22, ‘15, ‘14

-Close 5 yrs/33%: ‘25, ‘19, ‘18, ‘16, ‘13

 Overall averages a cold bias in the NE, especially since 4 much too cold and only one much too warm. OTOH, only 6 of 15 (40%) were too cold…so not a strong cold bias and thus there’s still a reasonable level of hope that it could verify well.

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 The cold bias in the SE is even stronger:

-Too cold 8 years/53% (including 4 much too cold): ‘24, ‘23, ‘21, ‘20, ‘19, ‘17, ‘16, ‘12

-Too warm 5 years/33% (but none much too warm): ‘26, ‘25, ‘22, ‘15, ‘14

-Close 2 years/13%: ‘18 and ‘13

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 Interestingly, this cold JFM 2027 CFSv2 forecast isn’t a whole lot colder than the following one also made in summer for JFM 2016 (which similarly followed a super Nino peak) as it has a fairly similar pattern (just not as cold):

 This is what verified: so, CFSv2 was close in NE but too cold in the S 1/2 of US: