What went wrong with the upcoming wet pattern/budding niño base state? Will there ever be a prolonged rain pattern again?

[JenkinsJinkies]

Okay seriously, we got burned by another head fake. The forecast for the Memorial Day soaker didn’t disappoint for the first time in ages, and in the week leading up to it the models did show it ushering in a wet pattern. Yet when the system ran its course the follow up rain events were can kicked an additional week and are now in the process of collapsing.

Since 2023 we’ve get these big rain events that happen roughly 6 months apart which mathematically should usher in a wet pattern but every time said pattern fails to materialize despite the storm verifying.

Did something else break in the atmosphere to make things permanently drier? It’s not supposed to be this hard to get a wet pattern here.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Good question. Notice the amount of clouds in the sky on an average day. The last few days it was better, but we were really clear in May. A few years ago in February 24/28 were completely clear skies. We are veering towards less precip patterns in the last few years. 

[dailylurker]

Hopefully something pops up. Some afternoon strong thunderstorms would be nice. It's been a real snoozer since Sleet fest. 

[MillvilleWx]

Persistent NW flow with breaks of southeast ridging are not a good recipe for rain in these parts. The NW flow is the biggest culprit. It's why we've had these incredible spells of nice weather this time of year, but it's a detriment to rain chances due to increased dry air aloft and relevant down sloping potential when winds shift westerly. Need more persistent southwest flow with moisture advection. Haven't gotten into that yet. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 hour ago, MillvilleWx said:

Persistent NW flow with breaks of southeast ridging are not a good recipe for rain in these parts. The NW flow is the biggest culprit. It's why we've had these incredible spells of nice weather this time of year, but it's a detriment to rain chances due to increased dry air aloft and relevant down sloping potential when winds shift westerly. Need more persistent southwest flow with moisture advection. Haven't gotten into that yet. 

Therein lies the rub, there's been ample opportunities for that to break down these last 3 years but when that opportunity arises the nw flow abruptly injects steroids or if it is beaten back it's only fleeting and it comes roaring back in as little as a few days. A niño should be able to overcome that but like in 2023 we're instead dealing with winter style futility until we're well past the summer solstice.

[SnowenOutThere]

18 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Okay seriously, we got burned by another head fake. The forecast for the Memorial Day soaker didn’t disappoint for the first time in ages, and in the week leading up to it the models did show it ushering in a wet pattern. Yet when the system ran its course the follow up rain events were can kicked an additional week and are now in the process of collapsing.

Since 2023 we’ve get these big rain events that happen roughly 6 months apart which mathematically should usher in a wet pattern but every time said pattern fails to materialize despite the storm verifying.

Did something else break in the atmosphere to make things permanently drier? It’s not supposed to be this hard to get a wet pattern here.

Tried to look at the 500mb to get a better answer. 

As others in this thread have said the basic issue is we are stuck in a NW flow pattern. The maps (one from our rainy week a couple weeks ago and one from a day ago) show the difference

This one clearly shows a southeast ridge with a ULL in the plains which helps transport moisture up the east coast and wring it out. Clearly, this is the pattern we need to get some rain. Notice the wind barbs out of the southeast from the Gulf. 

Meanwhile, this is the pattern we get. Beautiful weather but no moisture to be found in the upper air (unless you're hoping the Great Lakes save us). You can see the ULL over Maine with a ridge over the center of the country. 

Now, the question is will things actually change? Using the EPS to look forward and its not great. 

The forecast through at least next week is paltry with the upper air moisture transport as a ridge intensifies to our north. However, by mid month the pattern starts to breakdown and we see a more favorable setup return.

The GEFS suggests a similar reshuffling that helps us out as well. In the meantime, we're sorta cooked. 

[Ji]

why would you want rain? its softball season!

[JenkinsJinkies]

4 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

 

The forecast through at least next week is paltry with the upper air moisture transport as a ridge intensifies to our north. However, by mid month the pattern starts to breakdown and we see a more favorable setup return.

The GEFS suggests a similar reshuffling that helps us out as well. In the meantime, we're sorta cooked. 

The thing is will that change stick or be yet another one off?