2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[WxWatcher007]

Still pretty active on Euro AI Ens. Waiting to see GDM. 

[WxWatcher007]

GDM has nothing! Pretty sensitive setup it seems. 

[Newman]

Northeastern Gulf of America:

An area of low pressure is expected to form during the weekend over the northeastern Gulf of America. Subsequent slow development of this system is possible while it moves slowly northeastward over the northeastern Gulf and or near the southeastern coast of the United States by early next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[Newman]

The trough in the east should quickly pull whatever develops down here northward. Maybe 1-1.5 days over water in the northeastern Gulf

[Windspeed]

Potential surface disturbance in the NE GOM is still hinted by ensembles. But realistically, any surface low would need steering currents to remain weak to gain development time and any potential vorticity to resolve away from land for something substantial to form.

[GaWx]

31 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Potential surface disturbance in the NE GOM is still hinted by ensembles. But realistically, any surface low would need steering currents to remain weak to gain development time and any potential vorticity to resolve away from land for something substantial to form.

This could be the best case scenario from a helping reduce the SE drought perspective. A not too strong TC that provides beneficial rains (hopefully not flooding obviously).

[GaWx]

I just noticed that the 0Z UKMET has a NE Gulf TD from this on Sunday and a TS offshore the SE US on Tue:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 27.8N 83.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.07.2026 108 27.8N 83.1W 1011 33
0000UTC 20.07.2026 120 28.5N 83.2W 1007 26
1200UTC 20.07.2026 132 29.2N 82.1W 1008 27
0000UTC 21.07.2026 144 30.2N 81.2W 1007 32
1200UTC 21.07.2026 156 32.2N 79.1W 1002 40
0000UTC 22.07.2026 168 34.7N 75.5W 1000 47

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET fairly similar to 0Z run but SE of that track:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 27.0N 83.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.07.2026 96 27.0N 83.0W 1012 27
0000UTC 20.07.2026 108 27.2N 82.5W 1010 23
1200UTC 20.07.2026 120 28.3N 81.3W 1012 29
0000UTC 21.07.2026 132 30.0N 79.1W 1008 31
1200UTC 21.07.2026 144 31.8N 77.6W 1004 39
0000UTC 22.07.2026 156 33.8N 75.5W 1001 41
1200UTC 22.07.2026 168 CEASED TRACKING

[WxWatcher007]

12 hours ago, Newman said:

The trough in the east should quickly pull whatever develops down here northward. Maybe 1-1.5 days over water in the northeastern Gulf

 

12 hours ago, Windspeed said:

Potential surface disturbance in the NE GOM is still hinted by ensembles. But realistically, any surface low would need steering currents to remain weak to gain development time and any potential vorticity to resolve away from land for something substantial to form.

Yeah not sure there’s going to be enough time for TC genesis, but nothing set in stone yet. 

[GaWx]

17 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Yeah not sure there’s going to be enough time for TC genesis, but nothing set in stone yet. 

After 2 runs forming a TS from this, the last 2 runs dropped that and instead both develop something well out in the Atlantic subtropics:

0Z 7/16/26 UKMET

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 27.9N 63.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.07.2026 156 27.9N 63.9W 1014 29
0000UTC 23.07.2026 168 30.6N 66.2W 1013 31
——————————

12Z 7/16/26 UKMET

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 28.4N 62.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 23.07.2026 156 29.1N 63.9W 1014 30
1200UTC 23.07.2026 168 32.3N 65.2W 1014 31

 

 

[WxWatcher007]

53 minutes ago, GaWx said:

After 2 runs forming a TS from this, the last 2 runs dropped that and instead both develop something well out in the Atlantic subtropics:

0Z 7/16/26 UKMET

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 27.9N 63.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.07.2026 156 27.9N 63.9W 1014 29
0000UTC 23.07.2026 168 30.6N 66.2W 1013 31
——————————

12Z 7/16/26 UKMET

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 28.4N 62.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 23.07.2026 156 29.1N 63.9W 1014 30
1200UTC 23.07.2026 168 32.3N 65.2W 1014 31

 

 

Interesting given the ensembles look a little more active in the Gulf today. 

[GaWx]

9 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Interesting given the ensembles look a little more active in the Gulf today. 

 The UKMET (0Z), after having dropped this from TCG, brought back TCG. Also, unlike the 2 Wednesday runs that had it form on Sun in NE Gulf followed by a NE move across FL, this run delays development til Tue and then moves it slowly WSW:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 28.8N 86.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.07.2026 120 28.8N 86.2W 1008 32
1200UTC 22.07.2026 132 28.8N 86.6W 1008 33
0000UTC 23.07.2026 144 28.5N 87.5W 1005 39
1200UTC 23.07.2026 156 28.5N 88.6W 1003 40
0000UTC 24.07.2026 168 27.9N 89.5W 995 48

[dbullsfan]

any hope for this thing to make some noise in the gulf? 

[jconsor]

Will the tropical system off the west coast of Florida manage to organize despite moderate northerly wind shear over the next few days?

It's expected to spend three to five days over the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, which suggests we shouldn't count this system out. While a weaker system is the most likely scenario, there is the potential for a stronger system if it continues moving west under strong central/southeast US ridging and doesn't turn quickly northward toward Florida.

https://hurricanehacker.substack.com/p/tricky-forecast-for-gulf-of-mexico

[WxWatcher007]

Yeah time is probably going to be one of the biggest factors here. If it can remain over the Gulf and head west, rather than getting caught up quickly and turned into FL, it should have a window for genesis. 

[WxWatcher007]

Not the worst look on visible, but for TC genesis it's going to need to be able to fire more persistent convection. 

[GaWx]

34 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Not the worst look on visible, but for TC genesis it's going to need to be able to fire more persistent convection. 

12Z UKMET has moved TCG back up to Sunday (AM) and in E GOM. Becomes TS Mon night. It initially moves WNW followed by slowly SW/SSW after hr 144 into N Central GOM, similar to 0Z run (slow movement throughout):

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 26.9N 84.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.07.2026 48 27.4N 85.1W 1012 25
0000UTC 20.07.2026 60 27.8N 85.7W 1009 26
1200UTC 20.07.2026 72 28.2N 86.5W 1008 27
0000UTC 21.07.2026 84 28.1N 87.3W 1005 31
1200UTC 21.07.2026 96 27.9N 87.5W 1002 38
0000UTC 22.07.2026 108 28.6N 87.6W 1000 43
1200UTC 22.07.2026 120 29.3N 88.2W 1003 44
0000UTC 23.07.2026 132 29.5N 88.6W 1004 35
1200UTC 23.07.2026 144 29.2N 89.1W 1005 33
0000UTC 24.07.2026 156 28.4N 89.5W 1003 36
1200UTC 24.07.2026 168 27.7N 89.7W 1002 40

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, GaWx said:

12Z UKMET has moved TCG back up to Sunday (AM) and in E GOM. Becomes TS Mon night. It initially moves WNW followed by WSW after hr 144 into N Central GOM, similar to 0Z run:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 26.9N 84.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.07.2026 48 27.4N 85.1W 1012 25
0000UTC 20.07.2026 60 27.8N 85.7W 1009 26
1200UTC 20.07.2026 72 28.2N 86.5W 1008 27
0000UTC 21.07.2026 84 28.1N 87.3W 1005 31
1200UTC 21.07.2026 96 27.9N 87.5W 1002 38
0000UTC 22.07.2026 108 28.6N 87.6W 1000 43
1200UTC 22.07.2026 120 29.3N 88.2W 1003 44
0000UTC 23.07.2026 132 29.5N 88.6W 1004 35
1200UTC 23.07.2026 144 29.2N 89.1W 1005 33
0000UTC 24.07.2026 156 28.4N 89.5W 1003 36
1200UTC 24.07.2026 168 27.7N 89.7W 1002 40

That would be the way to make it happen. 

[WxWatcher007]

9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

We started talking Monday about the potential for homebrew this weekend and now we have a seedling off the west coast of Florida. 

The visible satellite shows what looks like a mid-level circulation with a complex of thunderstorms. This area is related to a stalled frontal boundary, which is a climatologically favored way for homebrew development this time of year. 

The environment is marginal, but in my estimation more favorable than what we saw with our first and only TC of the season so far, Arthur. 

The area its expected to traverse is one of the warmer spots in the Gulf relative to normal. 

Looking at Euro and GFS analysis, while there is modest dry air lurking, moisture seems to be present enough to allow for convection to fire should this want to organize. 

A true limiting factor eventually may be the presence of shear to the north, but at the moment that is not hindering today's convection. 

 

The biggest factor IMO on whether this is able to develop, is how much time it has over water. This area is in a location trapped between a ridge in the Gulf and a ridge in the western Atlantic, which should allow it to meander for now. However, as a trough swings in, that will open a path for this to get shunted north/NNE. If that happens, development will be unlikely. The GFS, which has been far less bullish on TC genesis chances from the very beginning, shows this well. 

 

However, if that trough is not able to turn this area quickly, it could get trapped under a building ridge in the wake of the trough, pushing this further west and keeping the window for development open long enough for genesis to occur. The Euro AI has been most bullish on this scenario. 

 

The ensembles have waffled back and forth, but this season I've been putting more stock into the AI ensembles and GDM (Google DeepMind). You'll see a modest signal below from both the Euro AI and GDM, and the further west the low tracks the better the chance for development. 

 

 

So today it's worth watching how this area off the FL coast tries to fire persistent convection, and if it can organize as a result. This weekend the trends on track will be crucial to whether we see homebrew development or not. 

 

[Newman]

Satellite and radar imagery definitely getting that "look" west of Florida with the MCV that is moving offshore. Mid-level rotation quite evident. NHC bumped odds up to 10/30 at 2PM.

 

12z Euro, GFS, Euro-AI all pinwheel this area of vorticity northward tomorrow up the West Coast of Florida 

[vortex95]

Looking at the ECMWF fcst, it remains cold core aloft for the next several days (see 700 temp 48 hr fcst attached), and at 850 elongated N-S w/ a broad wind field (see 850 winds 60 hr fcst attached).  Not much sfc low reflection.  I think they may be a case that aloft it is and will stay impressive w/ lots of deep convection/decent swirl, but low-levels struggle to organize.

We've seen this before and it looks great on satellite, and some ppl are going, "I can't believe NHC has not declared this yet!"  But sfc observations and microwave data show a low-level center ill-defined and/or not tight.

 

[WxWatcher007]

25 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Looking at the ECMWF fcst, it remains cold core aloft for the next several days (see 700 temp 48 hr fcst attached), and at 850 elongated N-S w/ a broad wind field (see 850 winds 60 hr fcst attached).  Not much sfc low reflection.  I think they may be a case that aloft it is and will stay impressive w/ lots of deep convection/decent swirl, but low-levels struggle to organize.

We've seen this before and it looks great on satellite, and some ppl are going, "I can't believe NHC has not declared this yet!"  But sfc observations and microwave data show a low-level center ill-defined and/or not tight.

 

Yep, totally agree. This will take some time if there’s going to be a true effort at TC genesis.  The overall track and time over the Gulf is all important here IMO.