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Spring/Summer 2026 Pattern Discussion Thread


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Seems to be a wall at the Appalachian Mountains. Some SC peeps on X are gnashing their teeth. They'll get some storms and wind but it literally blows over. Slower moving rain and systems are here on our side.
Thursday looks like more of the same. Big ol' slug of moisture will come up from the Gulf. Some hints of even a LLJ into the Tennessee Valley. After some good rain around here the system speeds up and fills over the Carolinas with lower QPF that way. 
We still have a long way to go on our own drought. I suppose we'll make more progress later this week. My lawn seems perfectly fine now.

Yup, Southeast ETN has been getting a few soakers the past few days. Finally had a good sunset today after a weeks worth of dreary clouds. This is facing your neck of the woods.75ff34c21229841fcfd095791c7b0fef.jpg


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Yeah it'll split around us. Front should get into northwest Tenn. Risk farther east and south is that subsidence northwest of the decaying TC squashes things. Then the said TC remnants are sliding deep south. That'd be nice in winter. 

Somebody has to say it, lol! :weenie:

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6 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Wound up with 3.93" here. North Jonesville officially 4.06" . Pennington gap, 4.57". Radar estimates of 5-7 inches northern Lee into Western Wise County. Powell River flooded Big Stone on down to Jonesville. Creeks and Streams flooded.

Norris can use that water.

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It's like Cross Mountain is a wall these days where all rain goes to die. Heavy radar returns just fall apart and the rain just splits. I had about 10 minutes of a shower. I don't recall in my lifetime ever seeing rain dry out specifically over this small area so often. I've seen droughts before but this one seems like almost a micro drought. 

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Starting this weekend through the Fourth looks like some summer temps are coming. Numerical models and humans looking at Nino and teleconnections promise it's brief. Talking the week in question; then, back to where we are now. Hopefully those signals for just one week hold!

 

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The GFS is still baking the heat into the area but the Euro/Euro AI are more reasonable looking. Still hot but 4-6 degrees cooler than the GFS is advertising. Looks like MRX has followed the Euro temp guidance for my area today vs the GFS yesterday. They had my high at 97 Wednesday during yesterdays forecast, today it's 93. The 12z GFS is showing 98 over my area Wed/Thur/Friday still but the Euro AI shows 90-92.

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NBM which does really well on temps is mid-90s with some 97 and 98s. I was skeptical its first year or two. A mid-range high-res ensemble?

Well the NBM has performed very well both winter and summer high demand weather. Guess it'll bust occasionally like anything, but I'm optimistic we can avoid widespread 100s. That said, somebody will get there. Also humidity will be atrocious.

Also regardless of anything heat index 100-110 will be hazardous. We are not acclimated yet after the modest start to summer. 

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Just had another round of rain but the worst of the flooding has receeded. Plenty of neighborhoods near creeks were under 3 to 4 feet of water, and a highway is closed due to a rock slide. The main creek near my house rose around 8 feet in about as many hours. It was basically in a low to almost no flow state through one opening and around 12 inches deep where it goes under the bridge. Now it's flowing through all three openings and it's around the 9 feet deep mark. 

 

There was a fairly large area of Morgan, Scott, Campbell and areas just south/east that got 6-8  inches of rain. 

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11 hours ago, Scottie16 said:

Monroe county has been hit or miss with rain.


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All misses down here this weekend. I could see the clouds off to the NW, but they never materialized into rain. It was pretty darn hot yesterday. My PWS peaked at 93.6 with a DP of 77. That calculates a heat index of 108. I'm confident that my PWS overestimates the DP consistently, but the point still stands: it's hot.

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  • Carvers Gap changed the title to Spring/Summer 2026 Pattern Discussion Thread

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