2026-2027 Super El Nino

[mitchnick]

Some WB maps at this post.

 

[GaWx]

OHC is still rising and is now at insanely high levels (>+3), especially for early August! @snowman19

[PhiEaglesfan712]

42 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

I will place a heavy bet that Nino 1+2 will once again, not cool off as we head into next spring. This is why I don’t yet think we swing back to a major La Niña. Cold neutral is once again on the table next year. 

I wouldn't be surprised if we had a carry over el nino, like 87-88, in 27-28. But it's going to end early, and we're going to get a head start to a strong la nina like in 88-89, in 28-29. It will probably be a one-year la nina, but a very strong one. We'll get the 3rd el nino in the early 2030's, like 91-92 (but probably not with a major volcano).

[LakePaste25]

16 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Some WB maps at this post.

 

While I may not agree with the Euro verbatim, it’s a perfect example of how a stronger Nino doesn’t always mean warmer. The August update increased the strength but went cooler. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I wouldn't be surprised if we had a carry over el nino, like 87-88, in 27-28. But it's going to end early, and we're going to get a head start to a strong la nina like in 88-89, in 28-29. It will probably be a one-year la nina, but a very strong one. We'll get the 3rd el nino in the early 2030's, like 91-92 (but probably not with a major volcano).

That one may have 2009-2010 like potential as we near solar min and potentially continue to relax the Pacific.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

While I may not agree with the Euro verbatim, it’s a perfect example of how a stronger Nino doesn’t always mean warmer. The August update increased the strength but went cooler. 

It's probably due to the anti-2023 effect, which demonstrated that weaker doesn't necessarily mean colder. Guidance is probably picking up on the reduced MC competition, thus the less inhibited se CONUS trough expression.