2026-2027 Super El Nino

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Super, east-based El Niño (strongest in history) along with a +QBO and we have the usual weenie accounts on social media hyping a very cold winter 

@forkyfork

It is the opposite of end of the spectrum from half all the clowns you post 24/7 as if you work for them

[Keith Central PA]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

I don't know how true that is but I don't believe it's going to be a wall to wall torch with very low snows. I think this winter will be highly variable and the back half will generate at least 1 major snowstorm for the east. 

Here's your 4 analogs 72-73,82-83,97-98 and 15-16..all had above normal temps..72-73 and 97-98 was virtually a shutout..82-83 and 15-16 had a historic blizzard. That's a good rundown of what you might expect.

[roardog]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That's why Chuck's formula is negative.

I thought I read somewhere once upon a time that a +AMO is more conducive to a -NAO. Although that doesn’t make a lot of sense since the last -AMO had a lot of -NAO periods in it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

I don't know how true that is but I don't believe it's going to be a wall to wall torch with very low snows. I think this winter will be highly variable and the back half will generate at least 1 major snowstorm for the east. 

Yea, that's there I'm at.

[GaWx]

Arctic ice area currently isn’t doing bad at all vs the avg for 2013-24, perhaps helped by the relatively cold 80N+: