2026-2027 Super El Nino

[SnoSki14]

52 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, all I need to see. This is what ultimately matters, so IMHO, you (collective) can shove all of the OLR, VP and MJO plots......we are having a cool ENSO July. Not what I want, but it is what it is.

We are also relying on analogs that might as well be from an ancient timeline. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

We are also relying on analogs that might as well be from an ancient timeline. 

Yes, but that doesn't render them worthless...rather it's incumbent on a quality seasonal forecaster to apply the necessary modifcations.

[snowman19]

As strong El Niño as it gets…..

 

 

And the subsurface heat/DWKW is reloading and strengthening under the 30C warm pool and is going to get pushed to the South American coast in the next month by the DWKWs and WWBs. The thermocline depression is ridiculous

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, all I need to see. This is what ultimately matters, so IMHO, you (collective) can shove all of the OLR, VP and MJO plots......we are having a cool ENSO July. Not what I want, but it is what it is.

An interesting question is why the recent 2023 developing super El Niño was able to break from the warmer 2020s -PDO/+AMO summer atmospheric mid-latitude pattern and this one in 2026 hasn’t so far?

We’ll  have to just wait and see how things go heading into the fall and winter.

Since a lingering -PDO atmospheric pattern could potentially alter the state of the Aleutian low and possibly even where the maximum STJ precipitation zones set up.

[LakePaste25]

31 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

As strong El Niño as it gets…..

 

 

And the subsurface heat/DWKW is reloading and strengthening under the 30C warm pool and is going to get pushed to the South American coast in the next month by the DWKWs and WWBs. The thermocline depression is ridiculous

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Do you know what the solid red contours and the dashed blue contours mean? Trying to learn this.